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Why Are The Tories So Keen For Scotland To Stay In The Union?

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I thought that if Scotland votes "yes" to leave the Union then the Tories are virtually guaranteed to be in power for ever (or at least I have read several articles implying this since so much of Labour's vote comes from the Scots).

Can anyone explain?

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I thought that if Scotland votes "yes" to leave the Union then the Tories are virtually guaranteed to be in power for ever (or at least I have read several articles implying this since so much of Labour's vote comes from the Scots).

Can anyone explain?

Would have thought the bulk of the Labour vote came from benefit "lifers" in England myself. If Scotland leaves the union it is another step away from the old order (the one the elites like) there will be land reforms and calls for similar in England, as well as regions (Cornwall?)wanting to go independent as well. There will be a knock on effect in the EZ with regions and countries wanting to break away from the central power base. The Tories are all about central power bases, land owning elites, and keeping the Serfs in their place, hence it will be soiled pants time if the Scottish serfs tell the Sheriff and his Tax collectors to do one.

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Well, the Tories are probably sh!t scarred of land reform, if started in Scotland would surely spread south.

Never mind the bolwlarks, holding vast amount of land is what being a Tory is all about.

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Perhaps the more Tories lay it on thick, the more likely a 'Yes' vote becomes?

Yep, there might be some sort of perverse "Braveheart" momentum that builds towards a "F*uck You" vote, who knows. Will probably vote Yes myself I think, would be the best way for bond market/housing market meltdown. Land reforms would also be on the agenda, Lord of the Manor no likey that.

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Yep, there might be some sort of perverse "Braveheart" momentum that builds towards a "F*uck You" vote, who knows. Will probably vote Yes myself I think, would be the best way for bond market/housing market meltdown. Land reforms would also be on the agenda, Lord of the Manor no likey that.

I think landowners and 1%ers will quake with a 'Yes' for those reasons, and yet I wonder if the common or garden Tory south of the border will hope for a Yes to get the blues in number 10 more easily.

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I thought that if Scotland votes "yes" to leave the Union then the Tories are virtually guaranteed to be in power for ever (or at least I have read several articles implying this since so much of Labour's vote comes from the Scots).

Can anyone explain?

You're right, without the Scottish vote the Tory party would have been in power pretty much constantly, I seem to remember reading an analysis saying there were only two elections since World War II that Labour could have won without Scotland.

But once the devolution genie is out of the bottle who knows where it might end? Plus in reality a second party would quickly spring up to challenge the Conservatives, it might nudge the entire political agenda a smidgen to the right but I'd guess it wouldn't be long before it became a two horse race again.

The thing I find incredible is what poor judgement Cameron has shown. It was his call to limit the vote to a straight yes or no, with no third "devo max" option. He did that because the polls were showing at the time that independence wouldn't get more than 20% of the vote. But Cameron should have known that polls more than twelve months from an election are basically worthless, so now he's promising what is effectively "devo max" with a no vote.

My guess is that the no vote will carry the day, but it will be close enough that it will leave a lot of bitterness with Scottish yes voters. Consequently I doubt a no vote will settle this for a generation or more, I expect a no vote this time but a whole new vote within a few years.

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Pretty embarrassing if the union breaks up under a Tory watch, will be Cameron's legacy (among other things), he can’t be happy about that prospect and the UK flag is going to look a bit weird if they vote yes. The UK will slide further and faster down the toilet IMO.

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You're right, without the Scottish vote the Tory party would have been in power pretty much constantly, I seem to remember reading an analysis saying there were only two elections since World War II that Labour could have won without Scotland.

This has been coming up a lot in the referendum debate, but it seems to be untrue. Googling gives me http://wingsoverscotland.com/why-labour-doesnt-need-scotland/, where they have the figures for all of the general elections since 1945. Their conclusion is

- on ONE occasion (1964) Scottish MPs have turned what would have been a Conservative government into a Labour one. The Tory majority without Scottish votes would have been just one MP (280 vs 279), and as such useless in practice. The Labour government, with an almost equally feeble majority of 4, lasted just 18 months and a Tory one would probably have collapsed even faster.

- on ONE occasion (the second of the two 1974 elections) Scottish MPs gave Labour a wafer-thin majority (319 vs 316) they wouldn’t have had from the rest of the UK alone, although they’d still have been the largest party and able to command a majority in a pact with the Liberals, as they eventually did in reality.

- and on ONE occasion (2010) the presence of Scottish MPs has deprived the Conservatives of an outright majority, although the Conservatives ended up in control of the government anyway in coalition with the Lib Dems when Labour refused to co-operate with other parties in a “rainbow alliance”.

- which means that for 65 of the last 67 years, Scottish MPs as an entity have had no practical influence over the composition of the UK government. From a high of 72 MPs in 1983, Scotland’s representation will by 2015 have decreased to 52, substantially reducing any future possibility of affecting a change.

More here:

http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2012/01/scotland-labour-majority-win

http://internationalsocialist.org.uk/index.php/2013/05/will-scotland-leave-england-to-generations-of-tory-rule/

http://commonslibraryblog.com/2014/01/30/general-elections-without-scotland-part-1-1945-2010/

http://commonslibraryblog.com/2014/01/31/general-elections-without-scotland-part-2-prospects-for-2015/

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Tell that to English students getting stiffed for fees by Scottish Lab MPs.

Would be good to see how tight votes would have gone on other controversial issues.

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I think landowners and 1%ers will quake with a 'Yes' for those reasons, and yet I wonder if the common or garden Tory south of the border will hope for a Yes to get the blues in number 10 more easily.

Hard to say. I think it is all part of a general awakening really, less power handed to others, more focus on the power within (devolving down to regions is a starting point for this awakening IMO) Talking to a couple of people recently about recording music, record deals, what "making it" means now etc. and it was night and day from expectations in the 80`s and 90`s. Now you can basically record demos on your phone that previously would have required studio time, and if you can get enough hits on you tube/social media you have "made it". Politics is the same, the game will be up for Lord of the Manor/Central Power one day.

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Only twice since WW2 has the Scottish vote had any discernable impact on a GE result...

1945 Labour govt (Attlee)
————————————

Labour majority: 146
Labour majority without any Scottish MPs in Parliament: 143
NO CHANGE WITHOUT SCOTTISH MPS

1950 Labour govt (Attlee)
————————————

Labour majority: 5
Without Scottish MPs: 2
NO CHANGE

1951 Conservative govt (Churchill/Eden)
——————————————————–

Conservative majority: 17
Without Scottish MPs: 16
NO CHANGE

1955 Conservative govt (Eden/Macmillan)
——————————————————–

Conservative majority: 60
Without Scottish MPs: 61
NO CHANGE

1959 Conservative govt (Macmillan/Douglas-Home)
————————————————————————

Conservative majority: 100
Without Scottish MPs: 109
NO CHANGE

1964 Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————

Labour majority: 4
Without Scottish MPs: -11
CHANGE: LABOUR MAJORITY TO CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY OF 1
(Con 280, Lab 274, Lib 5)

1966 Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————

Labour majority: 98
Without Scottish MPs: 77
NO CHANGE

1970 Conservative govt (Heath)
——————————————–

Conservative majority: 30
Without Scottish MPs: 55
NO CHANGE

1974 Minority Labour govt (Wilson)
————————————————

Labour majority: -33
Without Scottish MPs: -42
POSSIBLE CHANGE – LABOUR MINORITY TO CONSERVATIVE MINORITY
(Without Scots: Con 276, Lab 261, Lib 11, Others 16)

1974b Labour govt (Wilson/Callaghan)
—————————————————–

Labour majority: 3
Without Scottish MPs: -8
CHANGE: LABOUR MAJORITY TO LABOUR MINORITY
(Lab 278 Con 261 Lib 10 others 15)

1979 Conservative govt (Thatcher)
————————————————

Conservative majority: 43
Without Scottish MPs: 70
NO CHANGE

1983 Conservative govt (Thatcher)
————————————————

Conservative majority: 144
Without Scottish MPs: 174
NO CHANGE

1987 Conservative govt (Thatcher/Major)
——————————————————

Conservative majority: 102
Without Scottish MPs: 154
NO CHANGE

1992 Conservative govt (Major)
———————————————

Conservative majority: 21
Without Scottish MPs: 71
NO CHANGE

1997 Labour govt (Blair)
———————————–

Labour majority: 179
Without Scottish MPs: 139
NO CHANGE

2001 Labour govt (Blair)
———————————–

Labour majority: 167
Without Scottish MPs: 129
NO CHANGE

2005 Labour govt (Blair/Brown)
——————————————–

Labour majority: 66
Without Scottish MPs: 43
NO CHANGE

2010 Coalition govt (Cameron)
——————————————

Conservative majority: -38
Without Scottish MPs: 19
CHANGE: CON-LIB COALITION TO CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY

.

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Tell that to English students getting stiffed for fees by Scottish Lab MPs.

OK, so the original point's been disproved. Let's move the goalposts!

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Okay. Guessing game for the name of the new 'entitiy'.

I'll go for 'Engwelsh'. (NI is not 'British' anyway before anyone says anything B) )

We'd still all be part of the British Isles (the whole of Ireland is British in this sense btw) so if Scotland voted to leave the UK (they can't really vote to leave the island of Great Britain unless they're planning on some major Panama Canal style public works project) England and Wales would still be British and Scotland would still be British and I would be very jealous of their prospective land reforms.

Edited by Lo-fi

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Don't our beloved royals lay claim to half of it by pretending to be Scottish for two weeks of the year? Can't be giving any of that land up.

How much of England do they get for pretending to be English for the other fifty weeks?

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I would imagine one cause for concern would be a more egalitarian, socialist-leaning society right on the border. One with a similar culture, the same language and deep historical and social ties. Just right for a nice brain-drain of all the pissed-off young people in the rest of the UK looking for a fairer deal. As an Englishman, in the space of the last couple of years or so I have gone from thinking it would be quite sad for Scotland to renounce the union to hoping that they do so. I had thought that having diverse, even maybe competing, political traditions within the one country was on the whole a good thing for all concerned. I am now more resigned to thinking that change will only occur in a revolutionary fashion.

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OK, so the original point's been disproved. Let's move the goalposts!

Disproved? I said 'more likely', which seems to be the case looking at the changes to majorities- there is a consistent shift to Labour. The effect of this on particular votes cannot surely be ignored either. It is after all the point of getting as big a majority as possible-to win votes and be able to ride out rebellions within.

I've no particular axe to grind one way or the other btw.

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I thought that if Scotland votes "yes" to leave the Union then the Tories are virtually guaranteed to be in power for ever (or at least I have read several articles implying this since so much of Labour's vote comes from the Scots).

Can anyone explain?

First things first, since World War II, Labour only needed Scottish votes to win power in the 1950, 1964 and 1974 elections (which the Tories may or may not be glad they lost).

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/scotland-tories-westminster-majority-hung-parliament-independence-519433

Then there is the fear, total and utter fear, that if the Scots start implementing what some might consider radical socialist policies and they're successful the English will start asking tricky questions that'll play into the hands of Labour and populist parties like UKIP. Currently those on the right can claim that it's English tax-payers money that is paying for it irrespective of whether that's true or not (as I understand it Scotland gets out roughly what it puts in) but when they can no longer make that claim things will get tricky.

Finally they're officially called the Conservative and Unionist party.

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I think the money is a big part of it, Scotland generates noticeably more money that England, and there is a net flow of cash South (and has been for decades). I think independence would knock a big hole in the UK government balance sheet.

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