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Where’S The Gloom And Doom These Days?

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I wonder why the mood has changed over the last couple of years or so, back then there were numerous posts here and a general feeling that a major economic event was about to take place, people were talking about stocking up on essentials and having enough cash at home to cover costs for a couple of months, even discussions about water purification methods :lol:

The upside to a major economic event was that, after a few months of turmoil, the seemingly unsustainable economic mechanism was going to fail and was going to have to be replaced with one which rewarded honest work and saving.

Now the overriding feeling seems to be that we are in for perhaps decades of Japanese style zombie economics where especially young people will have to accept a position of having to sacrifice their standard of living to keep the broken system going for another few decades, to keep the rich and older generation in the level of luxury to which they have become accustomed…

I have to hand it to the government, they have managed to achieve an ultra-soft landing when you contrast where we are today to where some commentators thought we might be, with mass strikes and civil unrest, due to high unemployment and lowering standards of living.

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Easy to look at the economy from ones own perspective which basically for the young means pricing houses in income multiples and assuming a housing crash and economic Armageddon. Meanwhile the over 50s were getting richer even as the economy crashed and their control of UK wealth was being propelled forward to 76% and they could fill the void in buyers amongst the young.

http://www.saga.co.uk/newsroom/press-releases/2014/jan/wealth-of-the-over-50s.aspx

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As Churchill said if you have 6 economists you'll get 7 answers.

No one has a future prediction machine, one outcome clearly would be a collapse of current economic structures.

They haven't engineers a soft landing as the problems are still there, they've just managed to paper over them with interest rates at near 0% and the ECB already going with negative rates when we have a "recovery" it begs the question what will the next response be to a recession? I'd hardly call the current situation a successful policy outcome, unless you wish to take the view that avoiding any decisions is good leadership.

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The crash is happening. A crash in living standards for the young and the growing realisation that as they reach middle age, they're still 'young'.

Democracy in action...from an economy that prioritised housing post war to one that deliberately restricts supply, weights expenditure toward health and welfare and imports cheap Labour. Seems nicely set up for the needs of an ageing population as opposed to the young.

Edited by crashmonitor

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I'm as disheartened as the OP: I loved the water purification and hunting (people) with crossbows threads... There really was a palpable sense that we were about to witness the end of a cycle. But I guess that hasn't really gone away, it has simply been postponed, for how long is anybody's guess. I still have some bags of popcorn in the cupboard for when things get interesting again (alongside my survival rations) ;)

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I took out over a 4x salary mortgage in 2007. made me very gloomy. Now I've saved enough money to pay it off with a bit of money as well on top.

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Another post about it is all going to happen today.

It wont

It never was going to.

Its taken them YEARS to introduce even a watered down control on bankers lending...and already they appear to be bypassing this by using IFAs....AGAIN.

Politics isnt about solving problems...its about being seen to be concerned while keeping as many potential voters happy and well bribed.

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I took out over a 4x salary mortgage in 2007. made me very gloomy. Now I've saved enough money to pay it off with a bit of money as well on top.

just wondering, but just what has your happy circumstance to do in the slightest bit in the UK economy. Anyone can win the lottery, but its hardly anything to do with the economy.

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Democracy in action...from an economy that prioritised housing post war to one that deliberately restricts supply, weights expenditure toward health and welfare and imports cheap Labour. Seems nicely set up for the needs of an ageing population as opposed to the young.

I don't know why more people cannot see this. It's sad to see a generation turn on their own children.

The excuses are crap too. Gordon brown ruined my pension ( it's just smaller than you hoped for, the next gen don't have any) so I'm going into BTL. They spend all their money on iPhones and nights out. They're feckless, lazy and cannot read or write properly.

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I don't know why more people cannot see this. It's sad to see a generation turn on their own children.

The excuses are crap too. Gordon brown ruined my pension ( it's just smaller than you hoped for, the next gen don't have any) so I'm going into BTL. They spend all their money on iPhones and nights out. They're feckless, lazy and cannot read or write properly.

maybe the "young" should vote.

Better still, it would be nice to at least have an effective opposition...the Tories were useless, just as Useless as labour are today.

The reason they are useless?...I suspect its because their policies revolve around one entity....the banking system.

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I wonder why the mood has changed over the last couple of years or so, back then there were numerous posts here and a general feeling that a major economic event was about to take place, people were talking about stocking up on essentials and having enough cash at home to cover costs for a couple of months, even discussions about water purification methods :lol:

The upside to a major economic event was that, after a few months of turmoil, the seemingly unsustainable economic mechanism was going to fail and was going to have to be replaced with one which rewarded honest work and saving.

Now the overriding feeling seems to be that we are in for perhaps decades of Japanese style zombie economics where especially young people will have to accept a position of having to sacrifice their standard of living to keep the broken system going for another few decades, to keep the rich and older generation in the level of luxury to which they have become accustomed…

I have to hand it to the government, they have managed to achieve an ultra-soft landing when you contrast where we are today to where some commentators thought we might be, with mass strikes and civil unrest, due to high unemployment and lowering standards of living.

I think that there is a large amount of flustration and anger out there. Witness the UKIP vote, a lot of which is protest against politics-as-normal (although how voting for a city boy will help is an open question)

The problem is first that people are not (yet) hungry or homeless in large numbers. It's also that there is no organisation. You might have a million young people who are basically being shut out, but as yet they have no pole to organize around - the Labour Party has been co-opted by corporate interests, the trade unions have mostly compromised themselves, and the occupy movement never really went anywhere.

A real cynic would suggest that any potential leaders are being.. removed one way or another before they get much notice.

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maybe the "young" should vote.

Better still, it would be nice to at least have an effective opposition...the Tories were useless, just as Useless as labour are today.

The reason they are useless?...I suspect its because their policies revolve around one entity....the banking system.

Yes they definitely should vote, but its no excuse to completely rig the economy in favour of one generation as the next one doesn't vote.

The younger generations are all labouring under the misconception that this sort of thing wouldn't happen, as it hasn't before.

Post war generation built for the boomers, the boomers slammed the brakes on for the next gen and have the gall to blame them too. It's disgusting and NIMBY boomers are the worst.

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just wondering, but just what has your happy circumstance to do in the slightest bit in the UK economy. Anyone can win the lottery, but its hardly anything to do with the economy.

He loves to mention it at least every other post. Probably rubbing it in to make him feel better.

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just wondering, but just what has your happy circumstance to do in the slightest bit in the UK economy. Anyone can win the lottery, but its hardly anything to do with the economy.

When the first thing you think about when you open your eyes in the morning is your debt and it's the last thing you think about as you are trying to get to sleep. When you have cut back to one meal a day spending less than 50p a day gloom and doom is all you feel.

The economy could still fall only difference now is I don't give a sh*t

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When did the US become a net energy exporter?

It's coming though and I suppose we have the potential if we get fracking too. Energy prices are very tied up with economic cycle. IMO energy independence is worth striving for.

Not being subservient to energy producing countries is a big game changer when it comes to economic outlook. The US has had its fortunes turned around on the back of shale gas.

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When did the US become a net energy exporter?

Here's one of the reports that were floating around last year.

http://america.aljazeera.com/articles/2013/11/14/us-exports-more-oilthanitimports.html

It seems I jumped the gun a bit on that one and assumed it would continue, but since theres still speculation about whether it will become a net energy exporter, it looks more like it was a one off anomaly.

My apologies, let me rephase, since the US drastically reduced it's dependency on energy imports.

Thanks for pulling me up on that.

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I don't quite understand this

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/25/business/us-oil-production-keeps-rising-beyond-the-forecasts.html?_r=0

Total US oil consumption is at about 18 million barrels/day. Production has risen, to about 9 million barrels/day,

The problem is, the US is exporting Coal (and I can'd find the exact figures for natural gas, there may be a small export sector for that now). But still, no way is the US a net oil exporter and given the figures involved I'd be surprised about energy as well.

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When the first thing you think about when you open your eyes in the morning is your debt and it's the last thing you think about as you are trying to get to sleep. When you have cut back to one meal a day spending less than 50p a day gloom and doom is all you feel.

The economy could still fall only difference now is I don't give a sh*t

yet, somehow, you say you managed to pay off the 4 times salary debt.

Im guessing it wasnt your hard work that acheived this.

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I don't quite understand this

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/25/business/us-oil-production-keeps-rising-beyond-the-forecasts.html?_r=0

Total US oil consumption is at about 18 million barrels/day. Production has risen, to about 9 million barrels/day,

The problem is, the US is exporting Coal (and I can'd find the exact figures for natural gas, there may be a small export sector for that now). But still, no way is the US a net oil exporter and given the figures involved I'd be surprised about energy as well.

This doesn't add up at all. I've been lazy, I need to do some investigation that I don't have time for right now.

Hold that thought on the OP, I might need to restock on beans afterall!

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Good move. Beans are packed with energy.

A good source of natural gas - you will be a net exporter in no time!

Or should that be gross?

Edited by LC1

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I don't quite understand this

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/25/business/us-oil-production-keeps-rising-beyond-the-forecasts.html?_r=0

Total US oil consumption is at about 18 million barrels/day. Production has risen, to about 9 million barrels/day,

The problem is, the US is exporting Coal (and I can'd find the exact figures for natural gas, there may be a small export sector for that now). But still, no way is the US a net oil exporter and given the figures involved I'd be surprised about energy as well.

This is the latest available data from the EIA:

USPrimaryEnergy.gif

http://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/mer.pdf

Net imports are declining and not so long ago the US was forecast to become a net energy exporter in 2018. However the recent massive downward revisions to recoverable tight oil reserves have thrown some doubt on this. Some projections now put the US light tight oil (shale oil) production peak as early as 2016. The EIA projects a peak in 2021.

EIA energy and oil projections:

EIA_USenergy2014.gif

EIA_USoil2014.gif

http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/aeo/er/early_production.cfm

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yet, somehow, you say you managed to pay off the 4 times salary debt.

Im guessing it wasnt your hard work that acheived this.

Mostly I had a bit of luck with my company share save scheme. BT share prices fell in the crash to under a pound. I was able to buy them at a 20% discount to that price in a monthly saving plan. 61p a share now £4 about 6x what I put in.

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Because nothing significant to do with the crisis gets reported by the MSM any more?

e.g. I seem to remember a while back that the Gov changed the law, so that bank bailouts no longer had to be reported.. can't find any link though.. :(

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