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R K

World Cup Final Will Be Brazil 3 - 1 Argentina (Probably)

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http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/may/28/brazil-to-win-world-cup-goldman-sachs-2014

Host nation Brazil will beat Argentina 3-1 in the final of the 2014 World Cup, while England will not make it beyond the group stages, according to economists at Goldman Sachs.

A detailed analysis from the City economists predicted that England will finish third in Group D, marking the end of their tournament, with Italy and Uruguay progressing to the knock out round.

Using a model based on each team's track record and characteristics, Brazil emerges as the clear favorite, with a 48.5% probability of winning in Rio, followed by Argentina which has a 14.1% chance. Spain, winners of the 2010 World Cup in South Africa, are expected to be knocked out in the semi finals alongside Germany.

England has just a 1.4% chance of winning the tournament according to Goldman.

You won't need to watch it now.

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Given that no side outside of the American subcontinents has ever won a World Cup there this is a less than original prediction

I think they might be wrong about England though. They have a habit of scraping through World Cup groups even when rubbish before failing dismally at the knock out stage. Itall are also notoriously cautious and slow starters in the group stages

Goldman ought also to ponder the fact that the last time the World Cup was played in Brasil the Brasilians lost the final to Uruguay

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Given that no side outside of the American subcontinents has ever won a World Cup there this is a less than original prediction

I think they might be wrong about England though. They have a habit of scraping through World Cup groups even when rubbish before failing dismally at the knock out stage. Itally are also notoriously cautious and slow starters in the group stages

Goldman ought also to ponder the fact that the last time the World Cup was played in Brasil the Brasilians lost the final to Uruguay

Fill your boots then.

GS have Brazil almost as low as 1/1 (48.5%) but bookies have them at 3/1 (25%)

You could dutch such as Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and other teams from that region for a profit if one wins

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/world-cup/winner

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At current odds you could back

£25 Brazil 3/1

£16.67 argentina 5/1

£2.94 Uruguay 33/1

£2.94 Colombia 33/1

£1.96 Chile 50/1

So stake £49.51 to return £100

If Goldman Sachs were right about Brazil's chances being 48.5% and you fancy a S American team, with bookies you are getting the other 4 teams in effect for free.

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Sainsburys have surprisingly excellent quality 100% cotton world cup t-shirts in - all for 39 but currently 25% off. Some are a bit naff in design but others are very good if you are happy walking around in the footie colours of Brazil.

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At current odds you could back

£25 Brazil 3/1

£16.67 argentina 5/1

£2.94 Uruguay 33/1

£2.94 Colombia 33/1

£1.96 Chile 50/1

So stake £49.51 to return £100

If Goldman Sachs were right about Brazil's chances being 48.5% and you fancy a S American team, with bookies you are getting the other 4 teams in effect for free.

I remember the European Cup competition shortly around the time that Yugoslavia went into Civil War mode. I went into a bookies and tried to put a bet on Denmark - then not in the competition - winning the cup on the basis that if Yugoslavia got kicked out that Denmark would be asked to take their place at short notice.

No bookies would take my bet. I lost interest but Denmark did indeed take Yugoslavia's place and went on to win the cup :(

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Anyone that bets against Germany in the world cup needs their heads read.

I don't agree with the ' only SA teams have ever won it there' argument.

There has only been one tournament there in about 50 years.

And even that one had Holland in the final.

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Anyone that bets against Germany in the world cup needs their heads read.

I don't agree with the ' only SA teams have ever won it there' argument.

There has only been one tournament there in about 50 years.

And even that one had Holland in the final.

OK then.... add Germany and Netherlands

£25 Brazil 3/1

£16.67 Argentina 5/1

£14.29 Germany 6/1

£2.94 Netherlands 33/1

£2.94 Uruguay 33/1

£2.94 Colombia 33/1

£1.96 Chile 50/1

Stake £66.74 to return £100 and win £33.26 which is 49.8% ROI

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That's an interesting bet. ....

I may give it a go.

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Spain and Italy being the flies in the ointments of course.

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Anyone that bets against Germany in the world cup needs their heads read.

I don't agree with the ' only SA teams have ever won it there' argument.

There has only been one tournament there in about 50 years.

And even that one had Holland in the final.

2 world cups in Mexico and one on the USA won by Argentina and Brazil between them don't count on a technicality obviously.

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Anyone that bets against Germany in the world cup needs their heads read.

I don't agree with the ' only SA teams have ever won it there' argument.

There has only been one tournament there in about 50 years.

And even that one had Holland in the final.

I did say the Americas not South America and there have been tournaments in Mexico, the USA and Argentina over the last 50 years all won by South American sides.

The only time a European team has won outside of Europe was South Africa and that was at least in the same Time Zone.

But if you want to ignore the form book I am happy to be your bookie...

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I see what you are saying about 'Americas' - but what does that really mean ? The US is very different to somewhere like Brazil or Uruguay.

'Form' is fine - but in this case I think it means very little.

The main impact would be the heat difference - but for Brazil mostly in the evening in their ' winter' ? Not a huge deal.

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I see what you are saying about 'Americas' - but what does that really mean ? The US is very different to somewhere like Brazil or Uruguay.

'Form' is fine - but in this case I think it means very little.

The main impact would be the heat difference - but for Brazil mostly in the evening in their ' winter' ? Not a huge deal.

All I hope is that the tournament is an improvement on some of the dire World Cups we have had recently

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/glance-last-6-arguably-poor-174946296--sow.html

I dont care who wins it

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