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Target Of 200,000 Homes A Year Impossible Say Housbuilders

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Land costs nothing to create. [from the comments section]

More to the point, public sector building has ever touched this number once when land was cheap, why would they suddenly start doing so now?

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building costs are rising says mr lawz.

doesnt seem to occur in the US or in Europe, just the UK land is high and builders are richer than ever.

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building costs are rising says mr lawz.

doesnt seem to occur in the US or in Europe, just the UK land is high and builders are richer than ever.

Of course it's all about the price of land and the number of 'permissions' granted under the planning law that the government are in control of.

I hear a lot of nimby this, local council that but the pure and simple truth is the ONLY thing stopping houses from being built is the planning law.

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Of course it's all about the price of land and the number of 'permissions' granted under the planning law that the government are in control of.

I hear a lot of nimby this, local council that but the pure and simple truth is the ONLY thing stopping houses from being built is the planning law.

Agreed.

I still don't think that will change until the state itself starts building and needs to force through big land sales/developments itself to meet targets though.

We managed to build over 300K houses a year for 25 years using a combination of state and private build.

At this point adopting that model again seems like a no brainer.

Edited by byron78

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Will come as a great relief to the politicians....the Tories because it will keep supply tight and prevent a crash of property and the banking system. For New Labour whose leaders have all their chips in property,Mlibot style, I guess relief from a personal wealth angle. This could be the saving of the Bollinger Bolsheviks.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Agreed.

I still don't think that will change until the state itself starts building and needs to force through big land sales/developments itself to meet targets though.

We managed to build over 300K houses a year for 25 years using a combination of state and private build.

At this point adopting that model again seems like a no brainer.

Public developments paid for with what? The govt already needs to borrow 7% of GDP every single year to keep the UK out of recession.

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Public developments paid for with what? The govt already needs to borrow 7% of GDP every single year to keep the UK out of recession.

In the absence of taxes derived from building activity maybe we should tax the wealth derived from the shortage of supply.....but since council tax, inheritance tax and all the other wealth taxes are off the table I guess we will have to put up with a 7% structural deficit until it all implodes.

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So what number is possible? Do they say?

If they can't build enough homes then the UK won't be able to provide civilised accommodation for the massive increases in UK population that the government/ONS predicted for decades into the future.

Edited by billybong

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So what number is possible? Do they say?

If they can't build enough homes then the UK won't be able to provide civilised accommodation for the massive increases in UK population that the government/ONS has predicted for decades into the future.

Indeed we must build more houses for the immigrants we need to support the state retirement and welfare Ponzi schemes because basically there is no money in the scheme and I would rather like a state pension too that I haven't paid for. In forty years times we may have to build over the whole of the UK to import immigrants to support today's immigrants when they retire.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Public developments paid for with what? The govt already needs to borrow 7% of GDP every single year to keep the UK out of recession.

Housing benefit cut?

Farmer subsidy cut?

A few fewer nukes?

If we could manage it after WW2 and the 30s after the great depression there's no excuse not to do it now.

Edit: in fact farm subsidy cut seems the most logical (given anti-EU sentiment of late and the fact this could save tens of billions a year).

If farmers really do struggle, have them sell some of their land to the government and private developers for housing.

Edited by byron78

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Public developments paid for with what? The govt already needs to borrow 7% of GDP every single year to keep the UK out of recession.

Scrapping HS2

Scrapping HTB2 (12 billion = 400,000 new houses @ 30k each)

Edited by goldbug9999

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Agreed.

I still don't think that will change until the state itself starts building and needs to force through big land sales/developments itself to meet targets though.

We managed to build over 300K houses a year for 25 years using a combination of state and private build.

At this point adopting that model again seems like a no brainer.

Completely agree. The problem would be NIMBYs up and down the country howling with protest. I could imagine a protest party being set up to stop building In the same manner that UKIP is a euro protest party. Vote NIMBY

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Public developments paid for with what? The govt already needs to borrow 7% of GDP every single year to keep the UK out of recession.

The government don't need to do much.

Change planning law so that people can and have a right to build their own homes on their own land. It would take a couple of days to process as an emergency measure to the 'crisis'.

The number plots with permission would crash the price of existing building plots and the price of land would come down significantly as you wouldn't horde something that was not in scarse supply.

If any party was serious about solving the 'crisis' then they would take radical action.

Allowing the 27 councils to build anywhere they chose and borrow money from the markets to build homes for rental would also be a huge move. Just each council building a lowley 2,000 homes per year would result in and extra 54,000 profitable council owned homes per year.

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The government don't need to do much.

Change planning law so that people can and have a right to build their own homes on their own land. It would take a couple of days to process as an emergency measure to the 'crisis'.

The number plots with permission would crash the price of existing building plots and the price of land would come down significantly as you wouldn't horde something that was not in scarse supply.

If any party was serious about solving the 'crisis' then they would take radical action.

Allowing the 27 councils to build anywhere they chose and borrow money from the markets to build homes for rental would also be a huge move. Just each council building a lowley 2,000 homes per year would result in and extra 54,000 profitable council owned homes per year.

The bank's loan books would crash, the economy would go into depression Greek style, boomers would have to take a cut on their old age pensions and house price crashers would be able to pick up property for diddly squat. But boomers set the rules.

Edited by crashmonitor

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It's not the first time that any house building target has been claimed to be impossible.

Below is a link dated September 2007 with claims that it's impossible to achieve building targets in Yorkshire then.


http://

www.yorkshirepost.co.uk/news/main-topics/local-stories/plans-for-200-000-new-homes-impossible-1-2468203

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Indeed we must build more houses for the immigrants we need to support the state retirement and welfare Ponzi schemes because basically there is no money in the scheme and I would rather like a state pension too that I haven't paid for. In forty years times we may have to build over the whole of the UK to import immigrants to support today's immigrants when they retire.

The government's predicted increases in population aren't going to be entirely from new immigrants but from whatever source if the increases are to be accommodated properly (along with the existing population) then sufficient homes will have to be provided - but they never give any details how or where it's going to be done and now the builders are saying the proposed house building targets are impossible. Maybe they're just going to cram people into smaller and smaller spaces - is that what people have to conclude without any information otherwise.

It's no way to run a country.

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The government's predicted increases in population aren't going to be entirely from new immigrants but from whatever source if the increases are to be accommodated properly (along with the existing population) then sufficient homes will have to be provided - but they never give any details how or where it's going to be done and now the builders are saying the proposed house building targets are impossible. Maybe they're just going to cram people into smaller and smaller spaces - is that what people have to conclude without any information otherwise.

It's no way to run a country.

Without immigration I'm guessing the population would be fairly stable, like the rest of Western Europe. However, we have promised ourselves the moon in NHS and state pension benefits to the extent that each departing soul has helped themselves to a quarter of a million pounds in excess benefits over lifetime taxes. The only way to maintain this Ponzi is to keep the population inflating....good for the retired devastating for young workers. I'd be looking at taxing people on death rather than importing workers to square the books and make up for this £250,000 smash and grab, instead we allow them to hand over their gains to the kids tax free and leave behind a two trillion deficit.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Is your avatar a picture of Chrissy Amphlett?

Pamela Franklin in Hell House............a bit of a weak connection to HPC, but a penchant for early 70s thrillers.

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The government don't need to do much.

Change planning law so that people can and have a right to build their own homes on their own land. It would take a couple of days to process as an emergency measure to the 'crisis'.

The number plots with permission would crash the price of existing building plots and the price of land would come down significantly as you wouldn't horde something that was not in scarse supply.

If any party was serious about solving the 'crisis' then they would take radical action.

Allowing the 27 councils to build anywhere they chose and borrow money from the markets to build homes for rental would also be a huge move. Just each council building a lowley 2,000 homes per year would result in and extra 54,000 profitable council owned homes per year.

indeed, a builder( the council) will have the house at cost, and the repayments would cover the loans with some over...I mean, Munis cant default, so their borrowing rates should be the lowest possible.

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http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/23ec2c1a-e264-11e3-a829-00144feabdc0.html?siteedition=uk#axzz32o8JkA5I

VIs look to keep supply tight

Maybe if Osborne offered them another bung?

I know this will be a very unpopular post but a point that needs to be made.

The UK Housebuilders have barely earned their cost of capital (10% ROEs or so) in the last 20 years, always some exceptions like Berkeley Group etc. But the "economic value" of House Price Inflation is not captured by these guys.

Anecdotally, the people I know in the building industry operating small niche trade cos with say 20-50 men constantly tell me there is no chance of getting the number of new homes built up in the short term. The market for skilled labour in brick-laying, dry lining/plastering, plumbing, electricians etc is very tight and won't improve in the short term.

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