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Ash4781

National Association Of Estate Agency Survey

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http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/uk-housing-market-buyers-201405239161.html

The National Association of Estate agents aside from confirming that most buyers are over 30 and in couples with close to 1/3 ftbs also report that registrations are in pre-crash territory. However, mortgage approvals or transaction volumes are not at 2006 levels.

So the ea's have near pre-crash buyer stock and a low stock. Locally this will create price pressures right upto the point mortgage lending hits maximum affordability. Strangely like last time as the maximum affordability approaches a need for regulation comes in. Then well we know what happens. This time I don't think the BOE can reduce the cost of mortgages as easily as last time. Maybe they could push for negative savings rates.

There is also a Frank Knight report that suggests that millions of 'pent up' demand.

Edited by Ash4781

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I read the above 3 times but did not understand it. Pre crash buyer stock and low stock?

Apologies I should have written low number of houses on their books but a 2006 level of registrations.

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I liked the use of the term "pre crash". All this article seems to pointing out is that after years of ramping EAs have increased the cost of housing beyond their traditional market FTBs and second steppers. No one in their right mind can have any simpathy for them.

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http://www.propertywire.com/news/europe/uk-housing-market-buyers-201405239161.html

The National Association of Estate agents aside from confirming that most buyers are over 30 and in couples with close to 1/3 ftbs also report that registrations are in pre-crash territory. However, mortgage approvals or transaction volumes are not at 2006 levels.

So the ea's have near pre-crash buyer stock and a low stock. Locally this will create price pressures right upto the point mortgage lending hits maximum affordability. Strangely like last time as the maximum affordability approaches a need for regulation comes in. Then well we know what happens. This time I don't think the BOE can reduce the cost of mortgages as easily as last time. Maybe they could push for negative savings rates.

There is also a Frank Knight report that suggests that millions of 'pent up' demand.

I suppose if I was asked "would you like to buy a house", I would say yes, turning myself into this 'pent up demand'. But I am also very price sensitive and never going to buy a house at today's price ratios. So, my pent up demand is no demand at all, unless asking prices were to fall considerably.

I think this is just more cr*p saying that high prices are here to stay because the demand is there, etc, etc.

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I suppose if I was asked "would you like to buy a house", I would say yes, turning myself into this 'pent up demand'. But I am also very price sensitive and never going to buy a house at today's price ratios. So, my pent up demand is no demand at all, unless asking prices were to fall considerably.

I think this is just more cr*p saying that high prices are here to stay because the demand is there, etc, etc.

From the report you can estimate that there is 400k properties offered and 3mln people wanting to buy in the UK. It is true that buyers have different level at which they will buy but this doesn't change the fact it will take many years to meet the existing demand with the current supply level even if you assume that there is no new buyers.

BTW you get similar number 2-3mln for pent up demand if you aggregate reduction of FTBs demand for the last 10-15 years. This deferred demand is growing at annual rate 200-300k.

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