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zugzwang

Uk Govt Borrowing Up Sharply In April

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March revised up too. Mr Free Market starts the new fiscal year as he ended the last: Spend spend spend.

Unexpected. :rolleyes:

Investing.com - The public sector net borrowing surplus in the U.K. widened unexpectedly in April, official data showed on Thursday.

In a report, the U.K. National Statistics Office said that public sector net borrowing, or the difference in value between public spending and income, posted a surplus of £9.6 billion last month.

Analysts had expected the U.K. public sector net borrowing surplus to narrow to £3.5 billion in April from a surplus of £6.1 billion in March, whose figure was revised up from a £4.9 billion surplus.

Public sector net borrowing excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions, the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £11.5 billion. This was £1.9 billion higher than in April 2013, when it was £9.5 billion.

Public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions was £7.4 billion. This was £1.7 billion higher than in April 2013, when it was £5.6 billion.

Public sector net debt excluding temporary effects of financial interventions was £1,270.8 billion, equivalent to 75.6% of gross domestic product.

Following the release of that data, the pound turned lower against the U.S. dollar, with GBP/USD easing down 0.12% to trade at 1.6882, compared to 1.6906 ahead of the data.

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Net debt excluding financial interventions is £1.276tn? Good grief that's alot and we are not even back to surplus yet( edit on in year)

Edit - are we back to 2007gdp?

Edited by Ash4781

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Net debt excluding financial interventions is £1.276tn? Good grief that's alot and we are not even back to surplus yet.

Clearly we are. It said surplus several times in the article. We'll have one of those spiffy sovereign wealth funds in no time at this rate. :blink:

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Well money is cheap, we'd be foolish not to be investing in the UK economy at a time like this.

And people think there's going to be interest rate increases!

Someone did post the maturity profile of the debt.

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Well money is cheap, we'd be foolish not to be investing in the UK economy at a time like this.

And people think there's going to be interest rate increases!

If we keep borrowing like that we'll be doing an Iceland eventually.

Just imagine if Labour get in on top of that. Its the only thing that will get rates up.

They will NEVER do it of their own volition because there is no real recovery.

Theres zero hour mcjobs, a property boom, and er thats it.

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If we keep borrowing like that we'll be doing an Iceland eventually.

Just imagine if Labour get in on top of that. Its the only thing that will get rates up.

They will NEVER do it of their own volition because there is no real recovery.

Theres zero hour mcjobs, a property boom, and er thats it.

It wouldn't make any difference.

Aren't we now on the Alistair Darling budget?

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If we keep borrowing like that we'll be doing an Iceland eventually.

Just imagine if Labour get in on top of that. Its the only thing that will get rates up.

They will NEVER do it of their own volition because there is no real recovery.

Theres zero hour mcjobs, a property boom, and er thats it.

Dont forget their industry...taxation ( take-ation more like ) and spending. They are like women with a rich's credit card.

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It wouldn't make any difference.

Aren't we now on the Alistair Darling budget?

I think hes actually borrowing more than Darling had planned isn't he? Going by that graph yesterday.

But for some odd reason, we retain international confidence.

Quite bizarre isn't it?

Edited by shindigger

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I think hes actually borrowing more than Darling had planned isn't he? Going by that graph yesterday.

But for some odd reason, we retain international confidence.

Quite bizarre isn't it?

Are we missing something ?

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2009

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2009/jun/24/mervyn-king-alistair-darling-budget

Mervyn King, the governor of the Bank of England, has put himself on a collision course with Downing Street over its plans for reducing the Treasury's "extraordinary" deficits once recession is over.

Appearing before MPs at the cross-party Treasury select committee this afternoon, King rejected the chancellor's tax and spending plans, laid out in his April budget, as too cautious, insisting that if the economy recovers as rapidly as Darling expects, the government must act more urgently to bring borrowing back down.

"We are confronted with a situation where the scale of deficits is truly extraordinary. This reflects the scale of the global downturn, but it also reflects the fact that we came into this crisis with fiscal policy on a path that wasn't sustainable and a correction was needed," he said.

It contradicts the government's argument that the rapid increase in government debt, which is expected to peak at almost 80% by 2014, is an unavoidable result of the global financial crisis.

Under Darling's forecasts, set out in the budget, it will take until 2013-14 to bring the government's current deficit – the difference between tax revenues and spending – down to 5.5% of national income. But King thinks the budget should be returned to balance faster.

"If the economy were to recover along the path assumed in the budget projections of GDP then I think the time over which deficits need to be reduced is likely to have to be faster than was implied by that projection," he said.

"There will certainly need to be a plan for the lifetime of the next parliament, contingent on the state of the economy, to show how those deficits will be brought down."

Without a credible action plan to bring the public finances back in line, he suggested the government could struggle to find buyers for its debts in the years ahead. "Although we are finding it easy now to finance those deficits by issuing gilts, there could be problems down the road. We need a credible statement of what will guide the deficit reduction," he told MPs

The BoE keeps buying it so no problem there!

http://www.leftfootforward.org/2011/11/george-osborne-set-to-borrow-billions-more-than-alistair-darling-was-projected-to/

The Treasury has collated 14 independent forecasters’ predictions (pdf, p.18) for net government borrowing over the next four years.

Their collected view is that chancellor George Osborne will borrow billions more than the Office of Budget Responsibility predicted he would in June 2010 (pdf, Table C7, p.90) – or that the OBR said Alistair Darling (pdf, Table 4.5, p.38) would have if Labour had been re-elected.

Graph-of-borrowing-projections-2010-2015

Here are the raw figures:

Table-of-borrowing-projections-2010-2015

At worst, the government’s swinging cuts have stopped the recovery in its tracks, leading to borrowing far above and beyond what they predicted their supposedly profligate rivals intended. At best, with the European and global economy facing such turmoil, the facts have significantly changed since the general election of May 2010.

Useful for the figures, not so much the analysis!

So George should only be borrowing around £37bn this year.....

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FreeTrader has previously cautioned on using a single month's data, but it is hardly the sort of number which makes happy reading.

Make you wonder where we could potentially be in 2018, with debt interest forecast at £80Bn and with an expected zero deficit. Throw in a meaningful deficit and with that interest bill and the rollover of maturing gilts we may have made little overall progress in a decade by that point.

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I think hes actually borrowing more than Darling had planned isn't he? Going by that graph yesterday.

But for some odd reason, we retain international confidence.

Quite bizarre isn't it?

FT article (May 21, 2014). Google-news search keywords: gilt confidence (first story for me)

Chief exec of DMO talks things over, and re foreign buyers of huge tranches of Gilts - international investors holding most gilts - and also re other central banks and wealth funds... buying through nominee accounts which don't reveal individual investor. Could be our friends...

May 21, 2014

“We have an idea who they are,” he says. “Although they don’t like to show their hand.”

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The borrowing game is over when BRICS decide it is, looking at that gas deal it won't be long.

Darn, it's going to be really shite then, rather than just shitty.

It is going to be pretty scary for us once the world at large moves away from the dollar hegemony and into using currencies backed by production of goods or vital commodities: Once it becomes important to actually produce something of value to give your currency worth, it's going to be a rough ride for Sterling.

But then of course there are all those fantastic 'financial services' that London can offer .... Services which mostly involve playing numbers games and smoke and mirrors using currencies that up to now will be printed up as needed in order to keep the charade going.

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It is going to be pretty scary for us once the world at large moves away from the dollar hegemony and into using currencies backed by production of goods or vital commodities: Once it becomes important to actually produce something of value to give your currency worth, it's going to be a rough ride for Sterling.

But then of course there are all those fantastic 'financial services' that London can offer .... Services which mostly involve playing numbers games and smoke and mirrors using currencies that up to now will be printed up as needed in order to keep the charade going.

We've been specialising in producing housing equity recently, and many wondrous financial products secured on that. What could go wrong?

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Have they started including potential Help to Buy liabilities yet? Their promised bail out to banks climbs every day the scheme is running and the more prices rise the greater their liability. I suppose the governbankmment could just throw petrol on any fire?

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While the government books are obviously an absolute mess, one advantage that the UK has from a financial perspective is that it has been attracting workers from around the EU which is good for businesses (although probably bad for the average person) and will increase future tax take.

I seem to recall that there are more people working in the UK than ever before.

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I think hes actually borrowing more than Darling had planned isn't he? Going by that graph yesterday.

But for some odd reason, we retain international confidence.

Quite bizarre isn't it?

I think we only retain international confidence because the global elite have their noses firmly in the london property trough, but they will surely want to cash their gains at somepoint and move to the next trough and surely we are finsihed then. Its quite clear that the country is now firmly rudderless no matter who is in charge, this is a cross ur fingers and hope economic policy

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Govt. loses money on every worker on a 'whole life' basis ie contributions not enough to cover entitlements. Debt mounts up, risks becoming unmanageable.

Only way around this (at current spending levels) is either reduce entitlements or create more taxpayers. Create taxpayers by means of politically popular childcare subsidies, knowing you'll coin in vastly more in taxation for everyone who takes them up, and by immigration. Debt/worker looks less severe, even if still unsustainable ultimately.

'Entitlements' are payable (for the timebeing at least) by the dual forces of mass immigration and dual income debt slaves.

Meanwhile, the Torygraph is cottoning on with an article stating that debt interest will be £1Bn/week soon(can't link sorry). That's about £150/month/household. And the OBR predictions for 2017/18 have debt interest at £250/month/household.

I'm sure this will end well. :rolleyes:

Edited by The Knimbies who say no

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Govt. loses money on every worker on a 'whole life' basis ie contributions not enough to cover entitlements. Debt mounts up, risks becoming unmanageable.

Only way around this (at current spending levels) is either reduce entitlements or create more taxpayers. Create taxpayers by means of politically popular childcare subsidies, knowing you'll coin in vastly more in taxation for everyone who takes them up, and by immigration. Debt/worker looks less severe, even if still unsustainable ultimately.

'Entitlements' are payable (for the timebeing at least) by the dual forces of mass immigration and dual income debt slaves.

Meanwhile, the Torygraph is cottoning on with an article stating that debt interest will be £1Bn/week soon(can't link sorry). That's about £150/month/household. And the OBR predictions for 2017/18 have debt interest at £250/month/household.

I'm sure this will end well. :rolleyes:

The interest due on the approx 1/3 or so of national debt owned by the Bank of England will ultimately be zero.

Can't be long before they fire up the electronic QE presses again to suppress rates to fund the structural deficit and suppress rates (given that by some metrics, the economy is 'booming'), unless the rumours about various Western Central Banks clandestinely purchasing each other's bonds are founded.

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