SickofRenting Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Where are we now on this bubble graph? I like to think we are at the 'Return to "normal" ' stage following very closely to 'Fear' stage IMO. What do you think? x Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quicken Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Definitely in the blow off phase, but it's been protracted since 'New Paradigm' 2007. I've predicted in the past that the tipping point for capitulation will be £150k in the national indices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reck B Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Blow off Phase. *opens window* Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Most definitely "return to normal". I am seeing loads of listings now at silly prices, pretty much 2007+20% like there was never a problem and it's all been fixed so can continue on from where they left off + £100K extra for having to wait 6 years. If sales volumes down fall off a cliff now I will be surprised. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ames Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Judging by the media coverage this week, I think we must be moving into the Fear stage. I really need to buy (kids school etc) but I have the "Fear" others may still be behind the curve and in the second "Greed" stage. So far it's all talk - I suspect to induce panic buying! It's gonna blow, I just hope it's soon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 (edited) Judging by the media coverage this week, I think we must be moving into the Fear stage. If not....give it a month or two. Edited May 20, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ames Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 If not....give it a month or twe. twe as in twelve? - hmm I think you are right, unfortunately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The original graph assumes normal market conditions wit no direct government interference. You'de need to redraw the graph adjusting for 0% interest rates, QE, FFL, help-to-buy. The fundamentals real wage deflation, underlying asset erosion (properties deteriorating and no new ones) still support deflation of land prices prices. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustYield Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Media attention. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 (edited) Judging by the media coverage this week, I think we must be moving into the Fear stage. I really need to buy (kids school etc) but I have the "Fear" others may still be behind the curve and in the second "Greed" stage. So far it's all talk - I suspect to induce panic buying! It's gonna blow, I just hope it's soon. After witnessing the Irish bubble closely, I can tell you tha the market does not move together. You will find areas of the market will be in feat, other areas will be in greed etc. etc. [i am talking about physical regions, you need to check the regional data for this - time on the market, volume of stock, number STC]. I checked rightmove today and 50% of the 'new' properties were reductions - thus it's looking my poverty stricken corner of Somerset has turned after a tiny 5% - 10% rebound. Local wages do nt support the values or even the rental yields around here, but you will find areas like London where prices can be justified whilst the economy is growing. Edited May 20, 2014 by Wurzel Of Highbridge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 twe as in twelve? - hmm I think you are right, unfortunately. Twe as in Two. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Media attention. yeah, some of us already thought that...it will be te shortest lived bubble in history in that case. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybernoid Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Where are we now on this bubble graph? I like to think we are at the 'Return to "normal" ' stage following very closely to 'Fear' stage IMO. What do you think? x Agree with that, greed, delusion and new paradigm was all in the lead up to 2008. We had denial post lehmans etc, we had the bull trap, 'return to normal' was egged on by htb and everyone having no recollection of 2008 or how that occurred. I think we're just on the cusp of fear now, the media is all over it. Part of this 'fear' is rather public with the government attempting to line up carney as the patsy and carney using the media to express his concerns and his actual powers. As they all squirm out of blames way in the lead up to an election they are accelerating that phase by keeping it in the news, which is rather amusing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rantnrave Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Definitely the most fascinating period since 09 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Agree with that, greed, delusion and new paradigm was all in the lead up to 2008. We had denial post lehmans etc, we had the bull trap, 'return to normal' was egged on by htb and everyone having no recollection of 2008 or how that occurred. I think we're just on the cusp of fear now, the media is all over it. Part of this 'fear' is rather public with the government attempting to line up carney as the patsy and carney using the media to express his concerns and his actual powers. As they all squirm out of blames way in the lead up to an election they are accelerating that phase by keeping it in the news, which is rather amusing. + 1 The no recollection of 2008 is spot on. it seems 2007 somehow became "normal" and was the starting point for the new bubble. I can understand that if wages/savings had shot up while prices stagnated......but they haven't. The whole thing has just been made much worse by the governments tinkering. If the comments on all the news sites are anything to go by either only the HPC people post of those articles or most people do not want this lunacy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurzel Of Highbridge Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 If the comments on all the news sites are anything to go by either only the HPC people post of those articles or most people do not want this lunacy. The number of people posting to this site has collapsed over the last 2/3 years. I think the growing number of trapped renters and their families are venting their anger directly on the articles. In a way I am pleased that there are less posting here, as it means that the smart money trying to short the market has dried up. All those posts a couple of years ago about time to buy etc. Are there any STR's left? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ames Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Are there any STR's left? Guilty! Needed to move house as we had kids. Found a nice 4 bed with cheap rent. - Still renting. House prices have gone up, but so has my deposit. We would have been slightly better off if we had bought; but that may change in the next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybernoid Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 The number of people posting to this site has collapsed over the last 2/3 years. I think the growing number of trapped renters and their families are venting their anger directly on the articles. Ive noticed that too. The quality has dropped somewhat here as well with some misguided ideology pushers thinking their time has come. (ha ha!). I think its largely because this forums populations views are becoming more and more the norm, so for like minded discussion you need go no further than the comments below relevant articles in the national press. We used to be a minority loony view according to many, and day by day more and more wake up to it. Its the nature of being first, to start with you're mad, then 'maybe you have a point but...', and then 'well its obvious its what I was saying all along'. Its a good sign, if rather irritating to never be given your dues for seeing it all along. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thames Ditton Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I believe we are back to the Mania phase, media attention. Government intervention has brought us back here. The roller coaster will be faster and flatter this time around, but the new bubble has some way to inflate before it crashes again. Look at the year on year increases in the 1980's 1990's and 2000's. A couple of percentage points higher than long term exponential growth is sustainable in the short run after the 2007 crash. Greater london long term exponential growth is around 7%. The bubble periods lasted years and were much higher than 10% yoy for anywhere between 3 and seven years. I hate to say it but i think they will be able to continue inflating until after the general election. There will be no interest rate rises before then...just lots of hot air! All the better for keeping that bubble expanding. a bit of tikering around the edges to make it look like they are doing something at least. Then the mother of all hangovers quite quickly after the election. Winning the next election will be a poisoned chalice. I found the historical figures i am refering to here thanks to housepricecrash.co.uk http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globalassets/documents/media/economic-insight/house-price-tools/regionalhistoricalhousepricedataq12014.xls The difference this time around is that it will be smaller percentages on larger base figures and the cycle will be much shorter. I have been lurking a long time.. And i defer to the superior knowledge of the regular posters I am looking forward to hearing your riposte. Best regards Thames Ditton Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Mr Javed has stopped of at "denial" for a bit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shindigger Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 I believe we are back to the Mania phase, media attention. Government intervention has brought us back here. The roller coaster will be faster and flatter this time around, but the new bubble has some way to inflate before it crashes again. Look at the year on year increases in the 1980's 1990's and 2000's. A couple of percentage points higher than long term exponential growth is sustainable in the short run after the 2007 crash. Greater london long term exponential growth is around 7%. The bubble periods lasted years and were much higher than 10% yoy for anywhere between 3 and seven years. I hate to say it but i think they will be able to continue inflating until after the general election. There will be no interest rate rises before then...just lots of hot air! All the better for keeping that bubble expanding. a bit of tikering around the edges to make it look like they are doing something at least. Then the mother of all hangovers quite quickly after the election. Winning the next election will be a poisoned chalice. I found the historical figures i am refering to here thanks to housepricecrash.co.uk http://www.lloydsbankinggroup.com/globalassets/documents/media/economic-insight/house-price-tools/regionalhistoricalhousepricedataq12014.xls The difference this time around is that it will be smaller percentages on larger base figures and the cycle will be much shorter. I have been lurking a long time.. And i defer to the superior knowledge of the regular posters I am looking forward to hearing your riposte. Best regards Thames Ditton Winning this election was supposed to be a poisoned chalice. They printed, and they will print again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Guilty! Needed to move house as we had kids. Found a nice 4 bed with cheap rent. - Still renting. House prices have gone up, but so has my deposit. We would have been slightly better off if we had bought; but that may change in the next year. We wanted to move and decided to rent rather than buy. Still renting and are well in pocket as a result with cash waiting for when housing represents good value for money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 (edited) We wanted to move and decided to rent rather than buy. Still renting and are well in pocket as a result with cash waiting for when housing represents good value for money. I do enjoy your posts Bruce. Our renting became 8% more sensible in the last year. My rent has not gone up this year. Nor has my income mind you. My wife and I are thinking of having a sabbatical at the end of this year, October to March in Spain, it's just not worth working our fingers to the bone now for little reward. One of the reasons we are thinking about this is....we dont own a house and can rent in Spain for peanuts, a nice villa with a pool for 700Euro a month. Edited May 20, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ames Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 We wanted to move and decided to rent rather than buy. Still renting and are well in pocket as a result with cash waiting for when housing represents good value for money. I must admit that I can't wait to get my own place again as I suspect our landlord is getting ready to sell soon. We don't feel secure. I know that that is an unpopular view here but renting with kids in school without long term assured tenancy is a risky position. I think it is a travesty that the government has chosen to prop the market up rather than controlled deflation. They MUST realize that this prices-out the large proportion of the under 40's and enslaves the remainder. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
19 year mortgage 8itch Posted May 20, 2014 Share Posted May 20, 2014 Well into it now We're at the start of media attention. Hold onto your hats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.