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SHERWICK

Rejoining The Eu

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If we leave then how long until we rejoin?

My guess is leave in 2017/8; public clamour to rejoin reaches a crescendo in 2024/25; we then vote to rejoin in 2029/30 and rejoin in 2032/33, I.e. rejoin in 18 or 19 years from now.

This means that people currently 3 years old will be voting to rejoin in 2029/30, assuming a voting age of 18.

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As soon as millennials get power and start a decade long repatriation of wealth from the boomer and post-boomer UKIP supporting oligarchy, along with a massive program of nationalisation and return to free tuition, dental care etc.

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As soon as millennials get power and start a decade long repatriation of wealth from the boomer and post-boomer UKIP supporting oligarchy, along with a massive program of nationalisation and return to free tuition, dental care etc.

Yes, because 'millenials' are wise and long sighted, unlike every single other generation in history that preceded them.

Unpalatable fact: Human beings as a species are short-sighted, self-centred and often pretty stupid and easy to manipulate (which is why a small clique of elites have ended up dominating almost any social/political system ever). Doesn't matter what generation you were born into.

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If we leave then how long until we rejoin?

My guess is leave in 2017/8; public clamour to rejoin reaches a crescendo in 2024/25; we then vote to rejoin in 2029/30 and rejoin in 2032/33, I.e. rejoin in 18 or 19 years from now.

This means that people currently 3 years old will be voting to rejoin in 2029/30, assuming a voting age of 18.

The only people who 'clamour' to join the EU live in countries that are generally economic basket-cases and who see EU membership as a fast-track to the good life.

It should be pretty clear by now that this is no longer the case, even if the first poorer countries to get in the club got a nice boost. It's more like a pyramid scheme that relies on new entrants to benefit the early-joiners.

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The UK will not leave the EU in my lifetime. In the hugely unlikely event we're ever given a vote, the entire establishment will campaign against it. In the even more unlikely event that the country then still votes to leave, we won't actually leave. What will happen is that we'll be technically out of the EU but we'll then sign up to something so close to it as to be indistinguishable from the real thing.

edit: spelling

Edited by TheBlueCat

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Yes, because 'millenials' are wise and long sighted

Not sure that matters - they already are full of anger at the massive levels of debt they're going to have to deal with whilst having a worse personal wealth situation than previous generations had.

There is only one way that will end.

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The UK will not leave the EU in my lifetime. In the hugely unlikely event we're ever given a vote, the entire establishment will campaign against it. In the even more unlikely event that the country then still votes to leave, we won't actually leave. What will happen is that we'll be technically out of the EU but we'll then sign up to something so close to it as to be indistinguishable from the real thing.

You will never be given a vote to leave. The referendum is to see if a majority want to leave. Even if they do the UK government doesn't have to respect that wish. The government could (quite properly) say the majority to leave needs to be - for example - 80%. Likewise the government could leave tomorrow if it wanted even if - for example - 80% want to stay in.

The referendum is like the Scottish one. "Do you think Scotland should be an independent country?" It is actually if you read it (the question) an opinion poll.

I agree with you. The UK will not leave the EU in your (or my) lifetime.

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unlikely we will leave, but i doubt there would be any EU to rejoin. Its hard to see how it would survive without us.

I cannot see, in all seriousness, what difference the UK makes to the rest of the EU. The Germans like us as we are a bit to the right of the French but that's about it. I doubt anyone much would notice we had left unless we kick the Poles out and the other EU countries kick the Brits out, in which case those people directly affected would of course notice.

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The UK is the EU's largest export market. They could worry that we'll start putting up trade barriers and stuff.

EDIT: quick google to try and back my assertion brought this up. Looks like it might be a good read:

http://www.tfa.net/2013/02/20/roger-helmer-mep-the-uk-the-eus-largest-export-market/

Yes, we are the eurozone's biggest export market: about 12% of eurozone exports go to the UK.

However, the eurozone is also our biggest export market, and by far: more than 40% of UK exports go there.

Edit: Like Roger Helmer, I'm using eurozone figures as an approximation to EU minus UK.

Edited by snowflux

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The interesting idea is that the EU may change to be a much looser entity, and thus more palatable. Ironically, I think it will be the likes of UKIP who could make this happen.

Imagine if the results of the Euro elections resulted in heavy UKIP presence from the UK, FN presence from France, and similar parties from other European states - hell, even the Germans have a more skeptical party these days.

If this happened, the Euro Parliament (who are in charge of the commission), would be voting in accordance with a more skeptical agenda. This could potentially reconnect all those people (like myself) who see Europe as a fundamentally good thing, but also see that its ambitions need to be controlled. At the moment, the EU is running down a path that is not supported by a very large chunk of its voters.

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As soon as millennials get power and start a decade long repatriation of wealth from the boomer and post-boomer UKIP supporting oligarchy, along with a massive program of nationalisation and return to free tuition, dental care etc.

By then they'll be old UKIP voters. ;)

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