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TheCountOfNowhere

How Many Months Will The Reinflated Bubble Last ?

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How many months will the re-inflated bubble last ?

I vote for 1-3, CRASH is all over the news now. No one will be buying a house in the next few weeks, by the end of the summer all the indexes will be down and crash speed accelerating.

Osborne's bubble has ballooned too early and he might just have done all the HPC-ers a favour, we could well see the biggest correction in history.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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lots of house sold subject to contract and been like that for months.

My only hope for getting my own home now is to hope for a crash now i think

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lots of house sold subject to contract and been like that for months.

My only hope for getting my own home now is to hope for a crash now i think

Have you considered leaving the UK ?

I don't see a future here for the next generation. I think house prices are the least of our worries right now. Owning a house in the UK, at any price, could be a massive mistake for a lot of young people.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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I expect the powers that be are about to punish the populaion for voting UKIP. They think an interest rate rise after the Euro election will show 'em what's what.

I certainly expect them to get a shock.

I contacted Osborne though his MPs office and local party..saying what I thought of his economic polices, presented evidence of the his housing bubble and told him I was ashamed to have voted for him and would be voting UKIP, that was maybe 4 months ago.

I am yet to hear back funnily enough.

I would guess many people have emailed their MPs with similar messages, at some point we had to reach a tipping point where the policy of trying to bump up house prices, hammer savers, allowing unlimited fresh fodder into the country to support the ponzi economy and give "free" money to the bankers acted against the party doing so.

Democracy only works when the people are listened to.

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I certainly expect them to get a shock.

I contacted Osborne though his MPs office and local party..saying what I thought of his economic polices, presented evidence of the his housing bubble and told him I was ashamed to have voted for him and would be voting UKIP, that was maybe 4 months ago.

I am yet to hear back funnily enough.

I would guess many people have emailed their MPs with similar messages, at some point we had to reach a tipping point where the policy of trying to bump up house prices, hammer savers, allowing unlimited fresh fodder into the country to support the ponzi economy and give "free" money to the bankers acted against the party doing so.

Democracy only works when the people are listened to.

He won't reply because he doesn't want it posted here :lol:.

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ukips election charge may turn out to be a damp squib

the type of voters they've been pitching for (moaning nimbys who dislike people with a darker tone of skin) are the type of people who complain about whichever government is in but can't be bothered to vote

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ukips election charge may turn out to be a damp squib

the type of voters they've been pitching for (moaning nimbys who dislike people with a darker tone of skin) are the type of people who complain about whichever government is in but can't be bothered to vote

I'm sure a lot of the UKIP supporters are the very people who think they have benefited from high house prices.

Voting UKIP wont result in lower house prices. Voting UKIP will result in a change in the way the other parties see the priority of the population which will result in lower house prices.

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I'm sure a lot of the UKIP supporters are the very people who think they have benefited from high house prices.

Voting UKIP wont result in lower house prices. Voting UKIP will result in a change in the way the other parties see the priority of the population which will result in lower house prices.

its true that ukip has forced camerons hand with regards to the referendum but i would put this down to weak leadership of his own party rather than listening to the population. ukip are essentially a (rather nasty) fringe party which will probably fade away once nigel throws in the towel and becomes a game show host.

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its true that ukip has forced camerons hand with regards to the referendum but i would put this down to weak leadership of his own party

What makes you think that u-turn dave is weak ? :lol:

ukip are essentially a (rather nasty) fringe party which will probably fade away once nigel throws in the towel and becomes a game show host.

nasty ?

Don't you mean, honest, idealistic, British ?

I think UKIP will be about a lot longer the the lib-dems. They are about so see how unpopular they now are.

Talking of nasty....you should here the racist views of some of the true blue tories i've met in the past, they wont dont speak like it in public but behind closed doors it's proper nasty.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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Have you considered leaving the UK ?

I don't see a future here for the next generation. I think house prices are the least of our worries right now. Owning a house in the UK, at any price, could be a massive mistake for a lot of young people.

Having lived and worked abroad I can confirm that it can be an attractive thing. But I think you are overly pessemistic about the UK (well I hope so anyway). You are right - house prices are the least of our worries, but they are a good indicator of how things are going. HPI is still driving the borrowing to buy things (including other houses for the BTL mob). The return to a nice steady fall will be OK but a full on crash will spell trouble for the wider economy.

I thnk once we have this EU in/out rubbish out the way things could pick up. Assuming the referendum result is (like all the others) to stay in, then there will be no more issues for inward investment. If we are out then it will be man the pumps time and that - ironically - might bring some vigour into the economy as well. It is the current bickering and the polarising of the population into either flag waving halfwits or EU fans that is the problem. I think 90% of people are not really all that bothered, but the handful of UKIP nutters are shouting so loud it looks like a full on revolt.

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I picked the 1 month because:

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What makes you think that u-turn dave is weak ? :lol:

nasty ?

Don't you mean, honest, idealistic, British ?

I think UKIP will be about a lot longer the the lib-dems. They are about so see how unpopular they now are.

Talking of nasty....you should here the racist views of some of the true blue tories i've met in the past, they wont dont speak like it in public but behind closed doors it's proper nasty.

no, i mean nasty

vested interests riding on the back on prejudice

ironically, the people who stand to gain least from ukips agenda are its strongest supporters

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Before getting too carried away with bubble talk - remember:

1) Transaction levels are still modest

2) Mortgage approvals are still modest

3) Outside of a few London post codes nothing has changed a lot in last few years

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I picked the 1 month because:

all these are valid points but i chose 1-3 because most people still think prices are rising

a colleague of mine attended and auction last week. he said people could barely fit in the room and the house sold for £12,500 more than he could pay.

from this anecdote i gather that cash buyers are mostly ignorant of the points you listed

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On the basis that it hasn't even started in Nottingham I would go for after the next election.

It seems a bit weird talking about how long a bubble is going to last when it hasn't even started in most of the country. Wasn't Wales minus 5% on the land registry. A great bubble going on there.

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I don't believe there will be a proper crash in the nearest future. For this to happen property hoarders need to start dumping their holdings. They accumulated 2-3mln properties since 2000 and they still doing this at a pace 200-300k/year. The 2008 financial crash didn't change this behaviour, it rather reinforced their view that a property is a good long time investment. Even high leveraged property investors were saved by low interest rate and a political decision not to repossess mortgages with negative equity.

Increasing supply will mostly likely be absorbed by property investors. It will help keep house prices in check but not trigger an immediate crash. However it will amplify a crash when it happens when oversupply will be dumped in a short period of time (Spain scenario).

Restricting demand by reducing mortgage supply will cause market to cool down and enter low volume regime we have seen after the crisis.

Increasing interest rates could trigger a sell off if leveraged landlords were not being able to increase the rents. With negative cash flows property investor demand would drop.

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no, i mean nasty

vested interests riding on the back on prejudice

ironically, the people who stand to gain least from ukips agenda are its strongest supporters

Prejudice ?

Wanting the best deal for the British people who have paid tax, built the country, fought and dies for the country etc etc etc is now a prejudiced view ?

So when Gordon brown did his british jobs for british workers speech...was he prejudice ?

Whoever came up with the idea that everyone else is MY problem is most likely living off a % of what they take from me to give to them.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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On the basis that it hasn't even started in Nottingham I would go for after the next election.

It seems a bit weird talking about how long a bubble is going to last when it hasn't even started in most of the country. Wasn't Wales minus 5% on the land registry. A great bubble going on there.

Housing is overvalued across the entire country relative to what can be responsibly borrowed based on a sensible realistic interest rate average over the entire mortgage term.

It has been for 10 years.

Is that a 'bubble', it rather depends on the definition. Its certainly a problem, its certainly unsustainable. I call it a bubble, you can choose not to, calling it a pink elephant doesn't make it any less harmful nor will it prevent the correction.

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Prejudice ?

Wanting the best deal for the British people who have paid tax, built the country, fought and dies for the country etc etc etc is now a prejudiced view ?

So when Gordon brown did his british jobs for british workers speech...was he prejudice ?

Whoever came up with the idea that everyone else is MY problem is most likely living off a % of what they take from me to give to them.

ukip were nowhere until they used immigration to tap into the bnp vote

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