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Has Your View Of The State Of The Housing Market Changed Recently?


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Having fed figures into the BBC page that shows where you can afford to live based on what you can afford to pay in rent/mortgage I can now show my stubborn friend that he can't afford to live outside of mid Wales, Cumbria or Humberside. Even then he would have only £100 a month left for everything else!

Without a market collapse there are going to be a million joining him, especially if they are forced to take zero hours contract work or face benefit cuts. A job that you are forced to take that does not guarantee food on your plate let alone a roof over your head is no better than slavery. I think this could get very bloody very quickly, never mind the price of houses.

Ooof. Spot on.

Another 19000 Barclays droids about to feel the heat of the zero hour con.

We have western boom house prices, and Chinese wages/conditions.

Can't last.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes
Turn and face the strange
Ch-ch-changes
Don't want to be a richer man

For some reason Bowie was playing in my head this morning when considering ch-ch-changes and what appears to be ch-ch-changing in the housing market. Surrounded as we are now by both the ongoing hype and a tide perhaps slowly turning, yet still the madness persists.

So how does anyone currently value a property when the whole market is as slippery as fish?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46439480.html

Bought in 2004 for £139,000 now on for an eye watering £210,000, cheap if compared to a garage in London, but none of the similar properties down that road have ever sold for more than £160,000 . Although the current sale says "refurbished in recent years" looks like the refurb was pre purchase in 2004.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=10927632&sale=15539969&country=england

Or this one, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44001673.html

bought in 2011 for £170,000, again looks like the work was done pre their purchase except they have had the render knocked off to expose the stonework, but as it has 3 beds in 2011, the loft must have already been converted.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=28449109&sale=45720494&country=england

now on for "offers in excess of" £210,000.

I could keep going with examples, and I wonder how anyone sells and buys in this market, a market where on the one hand sellers have to be realistic and on the other you are dealing with a market half crazed, or perhaps fully crazed. It will be interesting to see what sells.

I have at the same time as seeing properties going up and up, been watching them come down and down, presumably because they are not getting any viewings, yet despite of falling prices, estate agents are more and more doing this whole "Open Weekend" thing, where there are no viewing until the date of the open weekend. However, I can't imagine many are turning up, or that anyone is that interested outside London etc in playing these games as if property was a good investment, or even an investment (rather than a home) and something to be fought over!

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Ch-ch-ch-ch-changes

Turn and face the strange

Ch-ch-changes

Don't want to be a richer man

For some reason Bowie was playing in my head this morning when considering ch-ch-changes and what appears to be ch-ch-changing in the housing market. Surrounded as we are now by both the ongoing hype and a tide perhaps slowly turning, yet still the madness persists.

So how does anyone currently value a property when the whole market is as slippery as fish?

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46439480.html

Bought in 2004 for £139,000 now on for an eye watering £210,000, cheap if compared to a garage in London, but none of the similar properties down that road have ever sold for more than £160,000 . Although the current sale says "refurbished in recent years" looks like the refurb was pre purchase in 2004.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=10927632&sale=15539969&country=england

Or this one, http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44001673.html

bought in 2011 for £170,000, again looks like the work was done pre their purchase except they have had the render knocked off to expose the stonework, but as it has 3 beds in 2011, the loft must have already been converted.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=28449109&sale=45720494&country=england

now on for "offers in excess of" £210,000.

I could keep going with examples, and I wonder how anyone sells and buys in this market, a market where on the one hand sellers have to be realistic and on the other you are dealing with a market half crazed, or perhaps fully crazed. It will be interesting to see what sells.

I have at the same time as seeing properties going up and up, been watching them come down and down, presumably because they are not getting any viewings, yet despite of falling prices, estate agents are more and more doing this whole "Open Weekend" thing, where there are no viewing until the date of the open weekend. However, I can't imagine many are turning up, or that anyone is that interested outside London etc in playing these games as if property was a good investment, or even an investment (rather than a home) and something to be fought over!

An issue that strikes me is the sellers above may just be looking to move sideways (perhaps closer to work etc.), but the inflation the government has caused the seller now needs to achieve a higher price because the house they want to buy has gone up.

It could be the case that the seller above cannot reduce their price until the house they want to buy as gone down.

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There is no doubt at all in my mind that Cambridge is in the middle of a ridiculous price bubble.

The 2007/8 peak for prices in my estate of virtually identical 3 bed terraces was £215k - they then hovered around the £210k mark until 2013 and the last 4 to sell have gone for £240k, £270k, 250k and £250k. These are still probably the cheapest 3 bedroom houses in the area. A tiny 2 bedroom house I cycle past on the way to work down a side road near the railway station is on the market for £400k.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-46323473.html

Prime Cambridge goes for £1m plus with houses now on the market for £2-3m. Nobody knows who is buying them.

The hope was that the massive blocks of housing being built on the outskirts would lower prices but all that has happened is that "canny investors" have been "snapping them up" and rent them out for a 3% roi.

Nobody with a normal job, or even a good job, can buy around here without equity from an existing property or help from family.

Edited by Timak
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but the inflation the government has caused the seller now needs to achieve a higher price because the house they want to buy has gone up.

Stamp duty must have this effect too - building in some level of inflation.

There is no doubt at all in my mind that Cambridge is in the middle of a ridiculous price bubble.

Agreed on this - I think there are couple of towns like this (Oxford similar I understand) which have ramped like London.

One scenario from here is that, just like the boom was patchy, any correction could be patchy too. Affecting some towns and property bands more than others.

Another 500K+ house locally (East) has just dropped 40K today. The 500K+ properties are not selling at all now and seeing several a week now being dropped 5-10%. Based on a sample of one, dropping 20% achieves an immediate sale.

These properties are too expensive for holiday homes, way too expensive for anyone local and not nice enough for London relocators.

It really feels like a top now, skeptical whether any broad correction can happen with so much demand from under-40s and a government committed to cheap lending.

Still looks most likely we'll see a top forming in the overheated areas and the regions will be catching up for a while - controlled/sustained by low IR and tighter controls on salary multiples/LTVs.

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yes

until a few weeks ago i was willing to pay over the odds to buy because the rented accommodation i'm in is inadequate and i don't fancy moving somewhere to move again in the near future. i started looking around october 2013 but prices just rocketed to unsustainable levels.

heres an example

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-27679634.html?premiumA=true

on the market for less than £250k a few months back now £320k.

who in their right mind is going to pay that much?

anyway, since mmr there has definitely been a change of pace and various other headwinds in the pipeline (ffl, interest rates, low wage growth, possibly leaving the eu)

i do feel the government will intervene if the bubble bursts, though

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An issue that strikes me is the sellers above may just be looking to move sideways (perhaps closer to work etc.), but the inflation the government has caused the seller now needs to achieve a higher price because the house they want to buy has gone up.

It could be the case that the seller above cannot reduce their price until the house they want to buy as gone down.

EXACTLY so how does ANYONE ever move?

The game has always been complex but now it is absolute madness.

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Kind of - I came to the realisation that departure from the UK (and London esp) is the only way to take a personal stand.

Withdraw my labour and my tax receipts from the country, and my savings, and buy elsewhere to live. I thought I would stay in the UK, and possibly be able to afford a one-bed flat in London. But at 39 that is not a reasonable use of my existence. The MSM and Government Johnny-Come-Latelys only reinforce that, despite all the signs, people are still scrambling to buy in the capital. I am out.

But I think the govt. will continue to intervene to stop a crash - with an election a year away they'll do anything they can - which to me, as an erstwhile right-of-centre voter, is madness. Their core vote is much older - already settled, with property, but with returns on investment not allowing them to fund their lives. The Tories should realise that they'd be on to a winner should they act realistically for the electorate, and allow HPI to cease, and prices to fall. Wages are not going up any time soon.

Edited by stillill
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I don't understand the voting question. Am I missing something?

Does it assume everyone must have thought prices were rising and going to keep on rising?

What good is a poll that only asks you whether you have changed your mind, when without having to post a message nobody knows what you have changed your mind from/to?

I voted yes

I had previously thought prices would rise steadily but slowly until higher interest rates forced them back down. All due to affordability.

We can not ignore the recent accelleration in prices and pent up demand release with much higher levels of first time buyers, record levels of foreign "investment" and record numbers of people in the SE and London looking for a home.

The situation is now very worrying and is so big a problem in my view that it could very easily destabalize the whole economy. The Government should be showing much more concern.

The future is not bright at all.

This view will be the majority of people voting yes as it is what has happened and is happening. How else could their view have changed?

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