Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
TheCountOfNowhere

Has Your View Of The State Of The Housing Market Changed Recently?

Recommended Posts

Last month it looked, to some, like the london mega bubble would go up for ever.

Now we've seen good results (i.e. down ) for the land registry and halfix ( for 2 months ).

MMR in place. FLS cut and the banks will be running out of the money they drew down soon enough,

Insane, and I mean insane, asking prices appearing on rightmove.

The bubble word is everywhere and the horrible little E.A. types seem to to have stop posting their nonsense. ( the very best reason to have a HPC IMHO ).

Has you view of the state of the housing market changed recently?

For me this year has 2007 written all over it and it wont take much for a disastrous joyous collapse in house prices.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A cautious yes. The media are suddenly full of 'bubble' and prices being crazy - not so long ago it was a rarity to see anything but hooray for HPI.

So I do sense that the tide is perhaps - just - beginning to turn.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In Northern Ireland we had a huge bubble which popped and houses dropped by 50%. Last year the media started saying that the bottom had been reached and the only way was up. Posters in NI started buying and our sub forum got quieter. I thought that maybe the bottom had been breached.

However I watched the market closely and see that indeed many houses are being bought but mostly repos and low end prices. Not so many high end. No sight of higher wages and I think this will prove to be a false euphoria and it will kick along the bottom for quite a while yet. Average house price sold is 99k -- half the price that was achieved at the top of the bubble.

To be fair, NI is at the bottom, but as you say there is no real reason for prices to climb again bar speculation.

The result of the UK has some way to go to get to this sensible position and NI should be seen as the norm, not the exception.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if my view has changed. They're definitely seems to have been some (ridiculously high) plateau being reached in my small part of East London. I never expected it to carry on though (but didnt expect the meteoric rise of recent years either for that matter).

I've always been of the opinion we need some sort of major catalyst if we're going to see major falls though, like the financial crisis that preceded 2007, and as yet i'm not seeing any change in that regard. I think these things probably come out the blue though, and things are far from rosey in the world so anything could happen still. Without that I see bobbing along rather than a big fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if my view has changed. They're definitely seems to have been some (ridiculously high) plateau being reached in my small part of East London. I never expected it to carry on though (but didnt expect the meteoric rise of recent years either for that matter).

I've always been of the opinion we need some sort of major catalyst if we're going to see major falls though, like the financial crisis that preceded 2007, and as yet i'm not seeing any change in that regard. I think these things probably come out the blue though, and things are far from rosey in the world so anything could happen still. Without that I see bobbing along rather than a big fall.

Recent years....in the 12 months I think you mean.

We had the major catalyst, the banking system collapsed in 2007, did you not notice....everything that has gone on since was to dig them out a hole. The actions of the last 18-24 months on the apart of the government has made things much worse now and when we see some spectacular drops in nominal prices there is now no where for people to turn.

The catalyst has always been there...the collapse has not stopped due to a small volume on insanely prices sales, media hype and government money printing.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Thankfully things have slowed down....lots of new and interesting people have moved in, new busineses started up and real business is happening...pricing people out of an area is highly negative and makes for a huge dissadvantage to the health and well being of the local community. ;)

Edited by winkie

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Nah. It's been a good two years now at least. The last year been worst but it was steadily rising before that.

Do you have a link to a graph on the land registry showing that ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the avoidance of doubt....here's the london land registry info from 2007.

There were no steady increases before March 2012.....when did the FLS start ?

london.jpg

July 2010 - 367.39

March 2012 - 370.69

http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/quarterlybulletin/qb120401.pdf

"On 13 July 2012, the Bank of England and HM Treasury

launched the Funding for Lending Scheme (FLS).(2) "
There is no doubt the FLS is responsible for the london mega bubbl mania

if people can't see what's coming next...more fool them.

The graph shows the insanity of the london housing market, prices are way past the levels that collapsed the UK banking system in 2007...the low interestrates and various insane bvanker bailout schemes have got a lot to answer for, The free rigged market tories responsible for this should be locked up if you ask me.

post-10812-0-47672900-1399559863_thumb.jpg

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lots of new instructions and small reductions, and few sale agreed's around here. Then the market has not really gone either up/down since 2006.

A few sill asking prices 2006+20% (he money the 'invested' adding new kitchen, bathroom and crappy conservatory). I am quietly confident the owners will never move home again :)

Some of the cheaper stuff I though would be snapped up by canny investors still laying empty after a few months.

The pro's of living in an unfashionable, but lovely area. I don't think we will be moving within a 3 mile radius again.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

For the avoidance of doubt 'Small part of East London'

From land registry for my current abode

April 2009 215,285

April 2010 239,462

April 2011 239,586

April 2012 243,799

April 2013 256,240

March 2014 315,102

Edited by terryturbojr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not at all. I predicted that the current gov would do everything possible to stoke up the South East and still don't think we'll have the crash some on here predict. Plenty more global elite demand (mainly BRICS but also Eurozone) to flood into London which ripples out.

Expect to see a slow stagnation in prices with wages similarly lagging over the next 10 years. Which as an outright owner in London doesn't bother me as I look to cash in by moving further out.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And for the small bit of east London I lived in prior to the current house

April 2009 312,500

April 2010 361,145

April 2011 373,626

April 2012 401,669

April 2013 444,804

March 2014 525,022

Why would you argue about an area you seemingly know nothing about?

Edited by terryturbojr

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I wish my opinion had been changed and wish I had a lot more conviction. Hate having to give friends and relatives advice on housing market when it is so rigged and hard to decipher.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm going to say yes. Bernanke's second bubble appears to have burst in the US. The Taper continues to bear down. Mortgage rates are rising in the UK. The HtB subsidies have been spent, FLS has been withdrawn.

Osborne remains the wildcard. His vanity, over-confidence and low cunning will be a continuous threat right up until polling day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I voted yes.

Although I had to think about this one because my overall opinion, that the housing market is riding for a fall, is unchanged, there has been an obvious change in sentiment in media articles over the past month or so.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Has you view of the state of the housing market changed recently?

I don't understand the voting question. Am I missing something?

Does it assume everyone must have thought prices were rising and going to keep on rising?

What good is a poll that only asks you whether you have changed your mind, when without having to post a message nobody knows what you have changed your mind from/to?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Having fed figures into the BBC page that shows where you can afford to live based on what you can afford to pay in rent/mortgage I can now show my stubborn friend that he can't afford to live outside of mid Wales, Cumbria or Humberside. Even then he would have only £100 a month left for everything else!

Without a market collapse there are going to be a million joining him, especially if they are forced to take zero hours contract work or face benefit cuts. A job that you are forced to take that does not guarantee food on your plate let alone a roof over your head is no better than slavery. I think this could get very bloody very quickly, never mind the price of houses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Not sure if my view has changed. They're definitely seems to have been some (ridiculously high) plateau being reached in my small part of East London. I never expected it to carry on though (but didnt expect the meteoric rise of recent years either for that matter).

I've always been of the opinion we need some sort of major catalyst if we're going to see major falls though, like the financial crisis that preceded 2007, and as yet i'm not seeing any change in that regard. I think these things probably come out the blue though, and things are far from rosey in the world so anything could happen still. Without that I see bobbing along rather than a big fall.

Brought to the boil, caused by the olympic effect...turned down to a simmer, sure to cool off. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well 180K ish that i would spend just to move on from this nightmare still gets absolutely bugger all and less then compared to 1 year ago.

There is sentiment and talk that property prices are too high but theyve been too high for 10-12 years now depending on where you live, and us plebs have been talking about it all this time.

Maybe when i see a 0.25% interest rate rise then i will get excited, the banks and builders have still got the govt fully behind them willing to thrown them billions at any moment ... unless this ends there will never be a real crash.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I don't understand the voting question. Am I missing something?

Does it assume everyone must have thought prices were rising and going to keep on rising?

What good is a poll that only asks you whether you have changed your mind, when without having to post a message nobody knows what you have changed your mind from/to?

Exactly! My mind has changed from there being rampant HPI to a plateau. In the poll I'm in the same camp as people who think the bubble has burst and those that think the crash has happened and this is now the time to buy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Exactly! My mind has changed from there being rampant HPI to a plateau. In the poll I'm in the same camp as people who think the bubble has burst and those that think the crash has happened and this is now the time to buy.

I'm afraid I'm still seeing a plateau (with some scaffolding) as the most likely near-term situation too now.

Regions growing over next 2 years - catching up to London salary multiples.

IR rises are going to be very gradual and don't see them causing much downward pressure anyway.

An energy or commodity crisis could change this but the concept of a crash / cliff coming is unlikely for a long time now.

If Tories get back in they may withdraw some support but they're unlikely to let a major correction happen without some socialisation of the issue.

A more likely scenario now is that Tories will come up with some scheme to support the plateau without raising it and give FTBs more help to take on those debt levels 'safely' - like 30 years fixes.

The property range most at risk is the £400K+ market as there are stacks of these around in all areas and few people with incomes high enough to get mortgages on them - but that has only happened because of the loose lending and leveraging equity from previous sales. I can see these properties having to revert to lower pricing if they want to sell.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   211 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.