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When Housing Bubbles Burst -Independent Today

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So a couple more years of insanity before a plateau. Much like before.

Any sign of a drop as per 2009/10 then QE and forbearance will ride to the rescue to stabilise everything.

We are going to be stuck in a government sponsored time loop regarding the housing market.

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So in June they will be reporting 17 months left and by Christmas 12 months left?

Didn't think so - they don't want to spark a panic for the exit.

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So in June they will be reporting 17 months left and by Christmas 12 months left?

Didn't think so - they don't want to spark a panic for the exit.

The smart money will be out already.

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So what will stop the house price boom – ... something has to stop it. In the long run the only sensible policy will be to build more homes, at least 250,000 a year

Riddled with flawed assumptions.

I'm beyond fed up hearing about demand justifying higher prices. "UK prices will remain high by world standards. Even if planning controls are eased, which they will be to some extent, demand will remain strong." :lol:

People believe need and "demand" can support house prices all by itself.

Now 0% building society mortgage deals in league with developers, scraping the bottom of the barrel to try and find the last of the borrowers willing to meet asking prices for newbuilds at high-prices.

It's all about what buyers can and will pay. There was massive demand for housing in 2008, and prices plummeted all year, as buyers and seller agreed to transact at lower prices, in a soft HPC. Prior to bailouts, printing, 0.5% etc rescue of the market for "recovery".

On that story there is a link to another article: British public wrong about nearly everything, survey shows

Edited by Venger

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This idea that a bubble will' plateau' is suspect to me- was there ever a speculative bubble that grew and grew and then just stopped? In theory the Tulip mania could have done this- just topped out- but what actually happened was that as soon as prices started to slow people panicked and tried to lock in their gains by selling up.

If a similar mentality were to hit the London property market the result could be spectacular and it would ripple out everywhere. After all the main reason for many to own that London property is as a store of wealth- so the moment you suspect that values are on the way down the smart move is to sell first.

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It is horseshit to pretend you know what the market will do.

+1

Bit embarrassing for the Indy journo, suggesting that all you need to do in order to be confident about the future path of prices for the next 18 months is ask a chartered surveyor - particularly as the discontinuity that mattered in 2008 is clearly not anticipated by the RICS survey - both data series change tack at the same time - the Nationwide data departs from its rise and stalls and the RICS forecast starts falling. However, given that RICS figure is generated by netting off those members who anticipate rises against those who anticipate falls to produce a positive or negative number, the balance of opinion amongst surveyors for about six months after the Nationwide signal showed that something had changed (prices had already stopped rising and it would transpire they were about to fall dramatically) more than half the RICS respondents thought that prices were going to rise.

It's laughable really.

It's definitely horseshit to pretend you know what the market will do. It's just bloody stupid to pretend that chartered surveyors are a good guide to the future path of house prices, especially if you back up your opinion with a graph that shows that they don't.

Edited by ex nihilo de novo

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