Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
jasonpistol

Evidence Of A Slow Down?

Recommended Posts

the majority of price changes in the last month in forest gate are downward and new listings don't seem to be above existing ones.

is anyone seeing any evidence of a slowdown?

or is it just wishful thinking on my part?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Just maybe in inner SW London. Recent experiences include an email from an EA proclaiming "PRICE REDUCTION" in the subject line, a phone call from an EA trying to drum up viewings and an (unscientific) feeling of more reductions and longer time-on-market from looking around online - all of these things are very different from the situation a couple of months ago. Slowdown, pause for breath, or neither - who knows? But the market is definitely a lot more subtle than "Thursday - put on market; Saturday - hold open house for 60 viewers; Monday - accept highest of 15 offers over asking price".

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

definitely price reductions in forest gate now

some appearing in the mighty walthamstow too

tottenham and leyton still steadfast though

rightmove listings took a few months to react to changing market conditions during the last crash if i remember rightly

i'm pinning all my hopes on the new lending rules marking the peak

after all, most people can't buy their dream overpriced squalid little shi*hole unless you can get credit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I am also watching a part of SW London (Wandsworth). What I am witnessing it is that EA's are overvaluing properties but transactions seems to be very slow to come by, and this is against relatively low level of new properties coming on the market. I was talking to one of the bigger agents yesterday and they said that market has suddenly softened due to, they think, the more stringent lending criteria bank have to adhere to. I think it is more that most places on the market are at an asking of about £75k at least above where I would have expected them to be and buyers are not biting obviously.

Is this the classic bump the price up 15% so you can accept offers 20% below asking? If so, it seems a pretty stupid tactic given the level of information available today. Even more stupidly is that one Agent started this, but now everyone seems to be following on the same trend.

So I think, definitely a slow down here but against unrealistic demands from sellers.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

definitely price reductions in forest gate now

some appearing in the mighty walthamstow too

tottenham and leyton still steadfast though

rightmove listings took a few months to react to changing market conditions during the last crash if i remember rightly

i'm pinning all my hopes on the new lending rules marking the peak

after all, most people can't buy their dream overpriced squalid little shi*hole unless you can get credit

Yeah. I've noticed it in Walthamstow too. The prices reduced were generally comedy to start with. Some literally 100% up on a year ago.

A house nearby just went SSTC in two or. three weeks with a stupid price though. Will need to wait to see if it actually mashes it through the sake prices and what the actual sale price is though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

with walthamstow i would expect prices around the village to be silly but that area along billet road is awful. which road is the one that just went SSTC for a silly price?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Mixed signals in the areas near me (Crystal Palace / South Norwood / Penge). Certainly quite a few properties in less desirable roads are sticking in a way that they wern't only a few Months ago. There's even quite a few price reductions starting to appear, albeit these are generally where vendors have tested the market at what would be a new peak, but "market has said no".

Against that, more desirable stuff is selling even at silly money. A good example is :

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-44033959.html

Pretty ordinary house, but on what is considered a desirable road locally. You'd probably have expected that to go for 300k ish around 18 Months ago. Took a while to shift, so probably went for a fair bit less than asking, but I'd have put money on that struggling to get past £400k. Likewise this :

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-30137046.html

Seemed to sell within a couple of weeks, despite being priced at a level that I asumed was a misprint even in this market. So it appears that we're moving away from "you can charge anything you like for any old crap", but that demand is still outstripping supply for nicer houses in the nicer roads in my part of London. How long that will continue for might be another matter though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

seeing a lot of price cuts in walthamstow now the vast majority of which have been in the last 3 weeks

i'm fairly new to the property-bee tool so i don't know if this is normal in a rising market

maybe someone who has been using it can comment

really feel we've hit the peak now

the lending rules being the culprit

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

seeing a lot of price cuts in walthamstow now the vast majority of which have been in the last 3 weeks

i'm fairly new to the property-bee tool so i don't know if this is normal in a rising market

maybe someone who has been using it can comment

really feel we've hit the peak now

the lending rules being the culprit

I agree that we have at peak, perhaps a bit over. A lot of new instructions around mine but still at deluded high prices. I doubt any will shift at those levels.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It comes to something when we see positives in a very average terraced house being sold in Leyton which needs modernisation for £385,000.

Only 15 years ago you could have bought the place for less than £100k.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regardless of whether a continued increase or a crash is on the horizon, how are London house price predictions taking into account affordability? Sure, many parts of London such as prime central London do not rely on people with London wages to be able to afford such property but in the rest of London, affordability cannot be ignored.

I am really surprised at how predictions are frequently not taking this into account. With the average FTB taking a mortgage of about 4 times their salary, where do any analysts see a potential for a sustained increase? Buyers can react irrationally to the news of a boom/crash but any increase or decrease based on this is not sustainable even in the medium-term.

It does appear that the level of "analysis" carried out by a lot of the estate agents or even doomsayers is particularly poor. Simply basing predictions on observations of current trends is pretty much primary school-level analysis. Unsurprisingly, very few of the chaps working for any of the big EAs in their headquarters have any decent qualifications or professional experience, many having graduated from low-tier Unis with irrelevant degrees that don't prepare them to carry out any scientific analysis.

Edited by samtheman

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Regardless of whether a continued increase or a crash is on the horizon, how are London house price predictions taking into account affordability? Sure, many parts of London such as prime central London do not rely on people with London wages to be able to afford such property but in the rest of London, affordability cannot be ignored.

I am really surprised at how predictions are frequently not taking this into account. With the average FTB taking a mortgage of about 4 times their salary, where do any analysts see a potential for a sustained increase? Buyers can react irrationally to the news of a boom/crash but any increase or decrease based on this is not sustainable even in the medium-term.

It does appear that the level of "analysis" carried out by a lot of the estate agents or even doomsayers is particularly poor. Simply basing predictions on observations of current trends is pretty much primary school-level analysis. Unsurprisingly, very few of the chaps working for any of the big EAs in their headquarters have any decent qualifications or professional experience, many having graduated from low-tier Unis with irrelevant degrees that don't prepare them to carry out any scientific analysis.

the first thing i think when i see an inflated asking price is who can afford to buy that?

and when it sells above the asking price i think where did the money come from?

the seemingly endless supply of bomad mugs has to run out at some point

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the first thing i think when i see an inflated asking price is who can afford to buy that?

and when it sells above the asking price i think where did the money come from?

the seemingly endless supply of bomad mugs has to run out at some point

Unfortunately that supply of BOMAD mugs seems pretty endless to me but with young people on very good salaries (even by London standards) having to take on 4 times their salary in debt in order to buy a 1-bed flat, it does indeed need to end somewhere.

There's certainly not an endless supply of foreign investors who have done a great job of keeping prices going up even when that means preventing the majority of Londoners ever buying in that area (so that we don't need to worry if anyone can actually afford to buy). When they cannot find another foreign investor to pass on their investment, they are indeed screwed and find themselves with a property paying a pathetic rental yield due to the imbalance between the property "value" and average salaries in the area.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

although foreign investors is a factor in driving up prices i think they're probably buying up horrible off plan new builds at inflated prices

i only ever see bomad types on viewings and the odd native investor discussing yields with the ea

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   211 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.