When Will Be The Next Recession?

[Killer Bunny]

Seems to me the next recession will bring in the HPC and a general Depression? Why not?

The next Recession will NOT be internally created. It will be due to next Global Economic Shock. Did anyone say China?

Edited May 6, 2014 by Killer Bunny

[crashmonitor]

Very surprised if it was within the next two years, since we have not yet got out of the 2008-2014 trough. If it took a dive in 2015 having just achieved 2008 GDP then that would be the first time in recorded history such a pattern has occurred. Once escape velocity is achieved it generally has a few years momentum.

Indeed I don't think there has been an episode where GDP has been lower than a point 6 years previous (until now), outside of World Wars. So expecting a lower point than 2008 in say three or four years time seems unlikely....which would be the result of an impending recession.

There again we are wishfully hoping for a house price crash even as the peak of 2007 has not yet been achieved and more like a ten year trough since 2004 up north. So are we saying it is going to be different this time and the history books ripped up.

Edited May 6, 2014 by crashmonitor

[Sancho Panza]

We've been in a depression for some time in terms of wages and jobs.Absent the 5%+fiscal deficits,ZIRP,FLS,HTB1,HTB2 and we'd have been buried a few years back.As it is now,we'll be buried somewhat deeper further into the future.

[R K]

Nowhere in sight. Barring something shortlived & very minor.

Unemployment still falling, real rates still negative, real wages not started rising meaningfully yet.

Come back in a couple of years & ask again

[crashmonitor]

I'd go for raising interest rates to avoid a recession not reducing them.....we don't need to avoid a recession now, the economy is growing at 3%.

[Killer Bunny]

New question added. To add your answer, delete your vote and revote

[Bloo Loo]

using GDP as the measure, then all is conjecture.

However, you can have rising GDP during a BUST...we are still in one...a BUST that is.

[silver surfer]

No new recession for quite some time, just the after effects of this one weighing down on the economy for the next decade, with underlying growth stuck in the 0-1% range.

Consequently base rates will stay commensurately low, certainly 2% or less by 2020, probably lower and further out still.

[Killer Bunny]

No new recession for quite some time, just the after effects of this one weighing down on the economy for the next decade, with underlying growth stuck in the 0-1% range.

Consequently base rates will stay commensurately low, certainly 2% or less by 2020, probably lower and further out still.

That is, by the Poll's definition, a Depression. Should be a vote for No then.

[TheCountOfNowhere]

Unless you are a 1%-ers the recession never ended.

They've just laid off 4 people in our office !!!!!

[Executive Sadman]

If they measured inflation truthfully it would be revealed we never left recession.

[zugzwang]

UK aggregate debt is 530% of GDP. Not until that figure's back below 150% will the depression of 2008 be over. Unfortunately, the only way to accomplish this is an inflationary default. QE on steroids (i.e. Abenomics) is what's next, 2016 or thereabouts.

[Killer Bunny]

UK aggregate debt is 530% of GDP. Not until that figure's back below 150% will the depression of 2008 be over. Unfortunately, the only way to accomplish this is an inflationary default. QE on steroids (i.e. Abenomics) is what's next, 2016 or thereabouts.

Yes that's what they said about japan in 90s and 2000s - Deflation more likely. Look at Gilts since New Year.

[interestrateripoff]

I thought we were still in the midst of a recession. GDP is a made up figure.

[Wurzel Of Highbridge]

Yes that's what they said about japan in 90s and 2000s - Deflation more likely. Look at Gilts since New Year.

Quite - wealthy 65,000,000 million consumers concurrently 'cutting back' is far more powerful than the government printing and and spending what amounts to £6k each over 5 years (£1k each per year).

For truly meaningful inflation you would need to restrict capital to the UK shores and double down to about 1tn in a year). They won't do that though as it's not in their own personal interests.

[Killer Bunny]

+2 (incls my wife)

[billybong]

using GDP as the measure, then all is conjecture.

However, you can have rising GDP during a BUST...we are still in one...a BUST that is.

+1

[Sancho Panza]

New question added. To add your answer, delete your vote and revote

In terms of GDP per capita we're in a depression.Although I'm sure someone will be along soon to tell me you can't use GDP figures in that way.

Unless you are a 1%-ers the recession never ended.

Quite.Although,pensioners/workers on RPI linked pay outs haven't done too badly.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Sancho Panza

[Sour Mash]

Very surprised if it was within the next two years, since we have not yet got out of the 2008-2014 trough. If it took a dive in 2015 having just achieved 2008 GDP then that would be the first time in recorded history such a pattern has occurred. Once escape velocity is achieved it generally has a few years momentum.

But we have kind of got out of the trough .... asset prices are more or less back to where there were. Unemployment is relatively low and falling. Headline inflation figures look low (they're fiddled of course) and salaries have been held low making industry look competitive. There is actual growth again.

Of course, all of this is based on printing money and holding rates stupidly low ... but as long as the government can do that, it will, in fact it must lest it precipitate an immediate bust.

It will be interesting to see if having basically refused to allow the 'free market' to correct properly, they can somehow string the bust-boom-bust cycle out longer too. It's typically 7/8 years from previous bust to boom then new bust, putting the top and subsequent bust at 2015/2016. My guess is that they can at the cost of snowballing inflation as credit/money is pumped into the system in ever larger amounts to keep it all going. At some point down the line, could be years, it will hit hyperinflationary bust but that could drag out for years as well.

Edited May 6, 2014 by Sour Mash

[long time lurking]

Nowhere in sight. Barring something shortlived & very minor.

Unemployment still falling, real rates still negative, real wages not started rising meaningfully yet.

Come back in a couple of years & ask again

Do you really believe those numbers ?

[Killer Bunny]

But we have kind of got out of the trough .... asset prices are more or less back to where there were. Unemployment is relatively low and falling. Headline inflation figures look low (they're fiddled of course) and salaries have been held low making industry look competitive. There is actual growth again.

Of course, all of this is based on printing money and holding rates stupidly low ... but as long as the government can do that, it will, in fact it must lest it precipitate an immediate bust.

As I say it will external not internal that creates the next shock.

[John The Pessimist]

7% deficit propping up sub 2% GDP 'growth' YOY. Unemployment down however additional half a million 'self employed'. Historically unprecedented ZIRP policy for how many years?

Yes! This time it's different! When did they ever use such extraordinary measures to keep the wheels on the cart? It's gotta all go bang, it's only a matter of time.

Edited May 6, 2014 by John The Pessimist

[shindigger]

Unless you are a 1%-ers the recession never ended.

They've just laid off 4 people in our office !!!!!

All back on Monday on zero hours contracts?

[Ash4781]

Yes that's what they said about japan in 90s and 2000s - Deflation more likely. Look at Gilts since New Year.

Deflation. I don't understand it myself with pound strength against dollar and also I think euro strength and deflation risk. Maybe its the bank.of japan pushing the yen down. I haven't looked at yen rates for a whilr.

[winkie]

Quite - wealthy 65,000,000 million consumers concurrently 'cutting back' is far more powerful than the government printing and and spending what amounts to £6k each over 5 years (£1k each per year).

For truly meaningful inflation you would need to restrict capital to the UK shores and double down to about 1tn in a year). They won't do that though as it's not in their own personal interests.

More people fewer jobs required....... Masses of people cutting back, staying in, sharing resources, talents,food, heating, shelter and transport.....technology at hand to assist WWW.......less work more automation,deflation to sell, prices will be forced down, growth negligible, supply not produced due to lack of demand at the price to make it profitable.....those with capital available will be living on that or sharing it......only the few will have access to the new money, others can only spend so much but only so much will be sold because there will be fewer with the ability to borrow and earn......you can't extract blood from a stone. Edited May 7, 2014 by winkie