Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

The Ayatollah Buggeri

Chinese Plans For North Korea Regime Collapse Fallout Leaked

Recommended Posts

Torygraph story.

Executive summary: a Chinese army report has been leaked detailing planning that has been done to deal with the fallout of the collapse of the North Korean regime. This includes rounding up the regime's protagonists and establishing refugee camps along the border. It is further speculated that China is actually trying to cause this to happen, e.g. by cutting off oil exports to the DPRK.

Quote:

Okumura believes that the timing of the leak of the study is significant, given that China can have been expected to have similar contingency plans in place for the past two decades that North Korea has been teetering on the edge of implosion.

I'm not sure that I buy this, though. A regime that has been teetering on the edge of implosion for two decades is, by definition, not teetering on the edge of implosion. Quite the opposite - it's relatively stable. The Kims' stranglehold over their population seems to be solid and effective, and is likely only to be broken by a foreign invasion: there is no sign that internal dissent exists on a scale needed do the job. At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law, I've recently finished reading Ian Kershaw's The End, on the last days of the Nazis. Kershaw's main argument is that the regime's control over its country was so well designed and effective that it could only be broken by a combined ground war, fought foot by foot and by several massive, developed-world militaries, against it. In short, by 1945, most Germans were more afraid of their own government than of its enemies. Once totalitarian regimes put down roots that are sufficiently deep and solid, you get to a point at which someone else has to come in with weedkiller and a spade.

It seems to me that a similar situation exists in North Korea, and that economic and soft power approaches to bringing down Kim's setup simply ain't gonna work. I suspect that China will eventually go in militarily when the time is right, and are playing a holding game in the meantime. Perhaps this report indicates that the meantime doesn't have that much longer to run. Discuss.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

North Korea sustains itself against all logic largely because of the virulent levels of racist xenophobia deriding from the isolated relatively homogenous Korean people (Kim's regime is more modelled on Japanese Imperialism than Soviet Communism).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Torygraph story.

I'm not sure that I buy this, though. A regime that has been teetering on the edge of implosion for two decades is, by definition, not teetering on the edge of implosion. Quite the opposite - it's relatively stable. The Kims' stranglehold over their population seems to be solid and effective, and is likely only to be broken by a foreign invasion: there is no sign that internal dissent exists on a scale needed do the job. At the risk of invoking Godwin's Law, I've recently finished reading Ian Kershaw's The End, on the last days of the Nazis. Kershaw's main argument is that the regime's control over its country was so well designed and effective that it could only be broken by a combined ground war, fought foot by foot and by several massive, developed-world militaries, against it. In short, by 1945, most Germans were more afraid of their own government than of its enemies. Once totalitarian regimes put down roots that are sufficiently deep and solid, you get to a point at which someone else has to come in with weedkiller and a spade.

Not 100% sure I buy that, if Operation Valkyrie had been lucky rather than unlucky would the Nazi's regime have survived?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   212 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.