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So Why Do We Need More Houses

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Ok the obvous answer is because we don't have enough.

But with only 1.8 children per couple the population should be declining.

With people living longer then we need more houses.

More people are living on their own. But this can be off set by big houses being turned into flats

And Immigation.

I have been against immergation because I thought it was one of the main drivers. However a couple of people have disagreed with me. And yes they could be right.

Can we nail this one has any one got any hard figures?

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I dislike both immigation and immergation cos it just adds loads of people here and we have enough already

Edited by Supertop

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Ok the obvous answer is because we don't have enough.

But with only 1.8 children per couple the population should be declining.

With people living longer then we need more houses.

More people are living on their own. But this can be off set by big houses being turned into flats

And Immigation.

I have been against immergation because I thought it was one of the main drivers. However a couple of people have disagreed with me. And yes they could be right.

Can we nail this one has any one got any hard figures?

30-40% is due to immigration. A substantial amount but certainly not the lions share.

"What I think they both mean is that one-third of new household formation is due to migration. This is based on the most recent (2008) household projections, which expect the numbers of households to grow by 232,000 annually up to 2033; just under two-fifths of this will result from migration".

http://www.migrantsrights.org.uk/migration-pulse/2012/are-immigrants-blame-housing-crisis

The site is biased towards migrants but since it quotes ONS/census as its data source we can take it to be accurate (unless they are lying).

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Exactly why do we want immigrants?

Obviously business want them and so do the Government, but for corrupt reasons

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Ok the obvous answer is because we don't have enough.

But with only 1.8 children per couple the population should be declining.

With people living longer then we need more houses.

More people are living on their own. But this can be off set by big houses being turned into flats

And Immigation.

I have been against immergation because I thought it was one of the main drivers. However a couple of people have disagreed with me. And yes they could be right.

Can we nail this one has any one got any hard figures?

There's a lag due to the large baby boomer contingent. The birth rate, even if below replacement level still exceeds the death rate. That 'natural change' should reverse as the boomers begin to die.

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Divorces are I think the highest driver in the formation of new households.

Immigration will be a slight factor, especially in the south east, where we have had a large influx. Competition for FTB properties and flats for younger economic emigres.

The chronic under building over the last 2 and a half decades has also been a major factor, I have seen various sources say we need between 250,000 and 300,000 houses built to cope with our population growth.

The Older owner occupiers and social housing tenants that no longer need family homes, but cannot bring themselves to move to more adequate housing is a factor.

We could go on and on. There are more reasons to build houses than not build them thats for sure.

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30-40% is due to immigration. A substantial amount but certainly not the lions share.

"What I think they both mean is that one-third of new household formation is due to migration. This is based on the most recent (2008) household projections, which expect the numbers of households to grow by 232,000 annually up to 2033; just under two-fifths of this will result from migration".

http://www.migrantsrights.org.uk/migration-pulse/2012/are-immigrants-blame-housing-crisis

The site is biased towards migrants but since it quotes ONS/census as its data source we can take it to be accurate (unless they are lying).

figures ive seen suggest nearer 50/50, but anyway, over the last half century there's been a lot of internal migration, from North to South. The financialization of the economy, killing the north, is as much driving demand pressures in the south as international migration. If I look at maps from the 40s and 50s of the Cambridge area it was nothing but farms and hamlets.

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figures ive seen suggest nearer 50/50, but anyway, over the last half century there's been a lot of internal migration, from North to South. The financialization of the economy, killing the north, is as much driving demand pressures in the south as international migration. If I look at maps from the 40s and 50s of the Cambridge area it was nothing but farms and hamlets.

People miss internal migration, as the economy of the North has been allowed to be destroyed the demand in the north decreases and the areas in the South they move to increase in price.

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I don't think there is a shortage of houses. You don't trip over loads of homeless people on your way to work do you?

It's more like a pig farmer bemoaning his lot, because his pigs won't breed enough to send some of them out to slaughter, He could improve the conditions on his farm, but he doesn't have to live there, and it will remove some of his profit. So he thinks his pigs are probably either gay or lazy.

He introduces some foreign pigs, these are from an even worse farm and will love the conditions in his farm, once they get producing you won't be able to move for the little piggy's running around.

Now he will have to build some new pigsty's for his growing drift, but wait... most of his original pigs are old, and weak and their offspring feeble, and placid, If even the mildest strain of pigflu comes round half of them will croak it! Why waist any money on 'soon to be' empty pigsty's?

And cramming them all in, will make sure that is spreads like wildfire.

I think that covers it.

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I don't think there is a shortage of houses. You don't trip over loads of homeless people on your way to work do you?

I know plenty of people in their early-mid 30s who have been in full time work for 10-15 years and live with their parents or in shared houses. Most of them are somewhere between fed up and ashamed of their situation. I also know a couple of dual income families who are raising toddlers on one floor of a small terraced house which was built for a family and has since been divided into flats.

These seem like clear signs of a housing shortage to me.

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I know plenty of people in their early-mid 30s who have been in full time work for 10-15 years and live with their parents or in shared houses. Most of them are somewhere between fed up and ashamed of their situation. I also know a couple of dual income families who are raising toddlers on one floor of a small terraced house which was built for a family and has since been divided into flats.

These seem like clear signs of a housing shortage to me.

Indeed, despite the massive growth in divorced singletons living alone and widows/widowers, the average household size actually increased between the 2001 and 2011 census'es, contrary to what was supposed to happen.

Homelessness as in people living rough has never been much of an issue outside of the drug addled or mentally disturbed, its the chronically 'underhoused' that suffer from the low of housebuilding. Its getting like overcrowded 19th century tenement buildings in New york in some expensive cities.

As its not as visible, politicians dont bother with it.

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Half the houses in Hampshire that are coming on the market for 200-250K look like they need knocking down to me, Prefabs after WW2 etc..., Britain has some of the worst insulated housing and energy inefficient in Europe.

A definite shortage of decent housing.

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I know plenty of people in their early-mid 30s who have been in full time work for 10-15 years and live with their parents or in shared houses. Most of them are somewhere between fed up and ashamed of their situation.

....

These seem like clear signs of a housing shortage to me.

That's a price issue, not a shortage issue, presumably they can't afford to rent somewhere individually. Anyway, it seems perfectly normal to me. I shared until my early 30's, and several flatmates were in their 40's. It's great, as long as you're single. I would happily do it today, but I guess the tricky bit is ending up with a good crowd who all get on.

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I know plenty of people in their early-mid 30s who have been in full time work for 10-15 years and live with their parents or in shared houses. Most of them are somewhere between fed up and ashamed of their situation. I also know a couple of dual income families who are raising toddlers on one floor of a small terraced house which was built for a family and has since been divided into flats.

These seem like clear signs of a housing shortage to me.

We aren't building enough homes.

However, 'the housing crisis', tends to be debated in the main stream purely on this premise. I suspect in particular the poorer Banks of Mom and Dads' have been complaining to MP's,

The dream is we'll figure it out and at some point in the next couple of decades catch up on our building and prices will slow down.

Why people think they can build homes faster than government encouraged property speculators can speculate on them is beyond me.

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OK, how many homes are "enough"?

We have more homes per person in the UK than at any time in history. While locally (mostly London I'd presume) there may be serious issues, in general any unmet need is down to rising aspirations, combined with moronic government interventions that distort (maybe even negate) market forces.

Neither rising aspirations nor government idiocy are anything new. But they do mean that "enough" is very problematic: we'd need ghost-town levels of oversupply to provide a home to meet everyone's aspirations after the hoarders have had their slice.

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That's a price issue, not a shortage issue, presumably they can't afford to rent somewhere individually.

Okay, so where are the properties standing empty that they could move into if the price was lower?

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OK, how many homes are "enough"?

How much of anything is "enough"? It shouldn't be the government's job to place hard caps on the number of houses. The planners are not smart enough to understand what is happening in the lives of tens of millions of people.

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Is it because of:


10 December 2013

http://

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/immigration/10509723/UK-population-could-hit-132-million-warn-official-figures.html

Only weeks after the Office for National Statistics predicted that the UK will have 10 million more people within the next 25 years, it published new estimates showing that the true figure could be four million higher.

An extra 14 million people in the UK in the next 25 years would mean something like approximately an extra 6 to 7 million houses to accommodate them assuming about 2 people per house and by official reports and comments (as well as house prices continuing the bubble) there's already a backlog and a consequent shortage.

(The existing UK population is about 64 million and increasing rapidly according to official figures).

Edited by billybong

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So 40% of demand from immigrants. People living longer can only be a good thing and nothing can be done about that anyway unless you think youthanasia is the answer.

The thing with living longer and more people deciding to be single is that this will adventually run it's course. People aren't going to live till they are 200 years old once everybody decides to live on their own no more houses need to be built.

My thoughts are that the population needs to be controlled so nobody starve when the oil age ends.

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Exactly why do we want immigrants?

Obviously business want them and so do the Government, but for corrupt reasons

Needed to keep the retirement and housing Ponzi schemes alive........and boomers set the agenda. Each deceased person has cost the country £240,000 in excess benefits over tax during a lifetime. We will need some serious immigration by 2050 to support the retiring immigrants as their net tax contributions quickly turn into cataclysmic welfare demands in retirement. I guess its doable but we will need to be looking at a population of in excess of 100 million to keep the retirement Ponzi on track by the end of this century.

Edited by crashmonitor

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