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benjamin

Uk House Prices 'on Stable Trend'

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BBC says:

"UK house prices remained unchanged in November, according to the Nationwide, bringing annual inflation down to 2.4% from 3.3% in October"

When the rate of decline increases from 3.3% to 2.4% YOY that is what is commonly known as "change."

The BBC no longer have credibility IMHO.

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Guest Fiddlesticks

You all seem to have misunderstood the difference between house prices and house price inflation. House price inflation has collapsed. House prices are rising.

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You all seem to have misunderstood the difference between house prices and house price inflation. House price inflation has collapsed. House prices are rising.

2.5% rising - well its matching inflation so that would be an adjusted 0.0% rise in the year!

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Guest Riser

You all seem to have misunderstood the difference between house prices and house price inflation. House price inflation has collapsed. House prices are rising.

I think you will find we fully understand the significance of house price inflation and its ability to predict future house prices, HPI going negative is a very reliable indicator for when to sell in the cycle.

national_redgreenQ3.gif SELL signal for UK housing

post-1619-1133282068_thumb.jpg

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I think you will find we fully understand the significance of house price inflation and its ability to predict future house prices, HPI going negative is a very reliable indicator for when to sell in the cycle.

national_redgreenQ3.gif SELL signal for UK housing

Nice chart, reminds me of the one on the home page of this site. Shows that the house market does indeed rise AND fall and that those naughty EAs and VIs who tell us that we are going to have a soft landing are fibbing. All I see in the charts are sharp spikes followed by precipitous falls with lulls in between. Have never seen a soft landing chart.

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You all seem to have misunderstood the difference between house prices and house price inflation. House price inflation has collapsed. House prices are rising.

House prices ARE rising? As in present tense, currently, at this moment?

http://news.ft.com/cms/s/58a83622-6001-11d...00779e2340.html

The tone of the survey by Nationwide matches other recent reports: both Halifax building society and Hometrack, the property website have this month reported that prices did not move.

You seem to have misunderstood the difference between a YOY HPI statistic and what prices are actually doing.

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Nice chart, reminds me of the one on the home page of this site. Shows that the house market does indeed rise AND fall and that those naughty EAs and VIs who tell us that we are going to have a soft landing are fibbing. All I see in the charts are sharp spikes followed by precipitous falls with lulls in between. Have never seen a soft landing chart.

Would be an even better cahrt if it was up to date!

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Guest Riser

Would be an even better cahrt if it was up to date!

The chart uses inflation adjusted data from the Nationwide which they release on a quarterly basis, the data can be found here: Nationwide historical data

Whats the matter Q3 2005 not up to date for you ? , the monthly data is all over the place due to the distorted seasonal adjustment they adopted to play down the falling market towards the end of last year. Nationwide used an annual inflation adjustment of 2.7% in Q3 2005 so if we assume the same for Q4 this months HPI of 2.5% would convert into a -0.2% fall when inflation adjusted so the cart would no look that much different, the crash is still on track B)

Edited by Riser

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The chart uses inflation adjusted data from the Nationwide which they release on a quarterly basis, the data can be found here: Nationwide historical data

Whats the matter Q3 2005 not up to date for you ? , the monthly data is all over the place due to the distorted seasonal adjustment they adopted to play down the falling market towards the end of last year. Nationwide used an annual inflation adjustment of 2.7% in Q3 2005 so if we assume the same for Q4 this months HPI of 2.5% would convert into a -0.2% fall when inflation adjusted so the cart would no look that much different, the crash is still on track B)

The chart only seems to go up to Q2

Maybe I'm wrong?

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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