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curious1

A Statistical Blip? The 'b' Word Goes Big.

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Odd. Look at 2009.

No idea what this is telling us. That patterns are merely decorative?

Says to me that everybody's a bull. And when that happens a market turn is right around the corner.

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Damn. I should have posted a screen grab. It looks like since I posted the graph has gone from vertical up to vertical down.... How very strange. Can someone verify with a fresh search for news searches in Th UK with the term bubble?

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Interesting to note that the term bubble is rising. But what is that telling us? That more and more people think that there is bubble, somewhere, anywhere...

If we are going to go with the notion that markets normally turn when everyone is a bull, then we will have quite a wait, as the current trend in the term bubble is rising and most of us will have turned into bulls before the bubble pops!

And no I can't see myself turn bull any time soon! Maybe this is a new kind of bubble where everyone can see it building but no-one has any idea of what to do or how to stop it!

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Damn. I should have posted a screen grab. It looks like since I posted the graph has gone from vertical up to vertical down.... How very strange. Can someone verify with a fresh search for news searches in Th UK with the term bubble?

Oh, looks like you posted before the partial data for May (currently 0) was included.

In which case my previous comment is invalid in context of your data, but I believe still valid in terms of market psychology. In which case I'll go back to my cave and wait a bit longer for sentiment to turn ;)

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Damn. I should have posted a screen grab. It looks like since I posted the graph has gone from vertical up to vertical down.... How very strange. Can someone verify with a fresh search for news searches in Th UK with the term bubble?

LOL - I see what you mean. Back to 2009 level in ten minutes!

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Interesting to note that the term bubble is rising. But what is that telling us? That more and more people think that there is bubble, somewhere, anywhere...

If we are going to go with the notion that markets normally turn when everyone is a bull, then we will have quite a wait, as the current trend in the term bubble is rising and most of us will have turned into bulls before the bubble pops!

And no I can't see myself turn bull any time soon! Maybe this is a new kind of bubble where everyone can see it building but no-one has any idea of what to do or how to stop it!

If we believe that. But bubbles pop when sentiment turns and there is surely a build up in negative sentiment that leads to this point (rather than a sudden outburst of negative sentiment with no precursor). How many bulls are actually aware of a potential HPC but counting on one last push to the top and ever greater fools to bail them out and maximise their gains before it happens?

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I suppose if everyone thinks everyone else thinks there's a bubble, there is a bubble because expectations of further price rises create further price rises as people seek to cash in on the expectation that prices will rise further- which causes them to rise further which then confirms that expectation leading to yet further price rises based on that empirical data- we all thought prices would rise- and they did!

So even if everyone agrees there is a bubble and tell each other that this is the case this in itself will not burst the bubble, it will simply accelerate it's growth because a bubble is in essence the belief that a bubble exists.

So contrary to popular opinion the commonly shared view that a bubble exists does not in itself mark the end of the bubble, it's simply the final manic phase in which the growth of the bubble becomes hypertrophic.

The bubble only bursts when the idea that it has already burst gains enough traction to reverse the above dynamic- but what never happens is that a bubble simply stops- a bubble that is not growing is shrinking- which is why the 'soft landing' scenarios predicted never pan out- herd mentality does not allow a soft landing,only a scramble for the exits as the mood switches from expansionary to contractionary.

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What exactly is it measuring? An upward trend that reflects traffic rising over time, or something more?

Shame the stats don't go back any further. The press in 2004 was full of talk of the housing bubble, too (and back then it was nationwide, not just London and hotspots).

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  • 407 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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