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Dave Beans

Boe Bloke "housing Market May Soon Suffer A Crash --- Merged"

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House prices will crash for buyers, better rental agreements for renters, interest rates are going up for savers, pay will be edging up etc - there's elections approaching and the LibLabCon party is morphing into the BoLibLabCon.

Edited by billybong

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You know in all the time ive been waiting for a crash ive never known so much bear talk by people in the upper echelons of the powers that be.

The last 2 weeks have been like an awakening for the nation, its as if they know a crash is inevitable.

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You know in all the time ive been waiting for a crash ive never known so much bear talk by people in the upper echelons of the powers that be.

The last 2 weeks have been like an awakening for the nation, its as if they know a crash is inevitable.

They don't listen. The nation doesn't awake to it. It can't happen. Their homes are special. And so much 'demand', it always has to be worth more. People just have to be able to get ever more money/debt to meet prices somehow. Too many older / equity rich homeowners read MMR = More Money Riches.

Yet you only need to have some feeling more of the pinch, concerned at prospects for the market, for more owners to come to market and transact with remaining able/willing prices at lower prices... for it to impinge on all owners house values.

As happened in 2008 where 199,370 residential sales (value of £40,000 above) between sellers and buyers were at lower prices than transactions for similar homes in 2007, causing entire market to fall in value during 2008. I'd like to see a repeat of that for starters.

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I think this site has waiting for reality to hit home fatigue. There are some actual winds of change in the air lately and theres lots of dismissal of it all on this site! A few years ago it would have been jumped on as 'the big one hold on to your hats'! It might just happen when we're not expecting it

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So-so. Full speech:

At the Worshipful Company of International Bankers dinner, London
1 May 2014

Always the 'victims' who chose to buy at ever higher prices, being the "must-protect" "must worry over" ones. How about majority older outright owners and equity rich owners who are sat on massive massive HPI gains? They don't particularly lose out. How about those of us who waited for value, who didn't get dragged into the banks to over-borrow?

Though expectations for sharply rising housing prices are not an issue of inflation pressure generally, they
can matter a lot for the actions of people and the choices they make. Expectations of a fast rising market put
pressure on potential buyers to get into the market as quickly as possible for fear of being priced out. And on
sellers to delay and ask for higher prices. And expectations of future increases in the value of homes can
make people more willing to take on debt to get on the ladder or to reach for that next rung.
However, there is another way the story can play out - a major overshoot in prices and build up in debt
followed by a sharp correction with negative equity and an overhang of debt for many households. The
trigger for the correction can vary – in the early 89-92 episode it was a sharp rise in interest rates as the UK
sought to remain in the Exchange Rate Mechanism; in 2007-9 it was a sharp tightening in credit conditions
amid a collapse in confidence in an over-levered banking system – but, unfortunately, there are more
precedents in UK for periods of a rapidly growing housing market to end in this way.

PDF link: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/Documents/speeches/2014/speech725.pdf

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I think this site has waiting for reality to hit home fatigue. There are some actual winds of change in the air lately and theres lots of dismissal of it all on this site! A few years ago it would have been jumped on as 'the big one hold on to your hats'! It might just happen when we're not expecting it

That's about right. People have moaned about irrational house prices but in order to fall there needs to be not analysis but a bit of cold hard reality.

That's now in all forecasts in the form of rising US interest rates in 2015, and where the Fed goes the BoE always follows.

Stretch out and wait; this time it's for real.

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Last night on newsnight was the first time I have ever heard mainstream TV programme...nay any TV program explain clearly that as prices rise the rungs on 'the ladder' become further apart and it becomes more expensive for people trading up.

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Asset prices and current prices can be brought back into equilibrium in only two ways. Either asset prices fall sharply or current prices inflate sharply - or both. The present disequilibrium is being maintained by Osborne's frenzied borrowing. A fiscal imbalance of -7% of GDP is simply unsustainable for more than a handful of years. It's over.

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As I have said before, it will be just like you say IMO. One day it will just be there, all over the news, all through peoples sentiment. So many idiots are going to be left sitting in a big house that they will never ever sell, probably watching re-runs of LLL and wondering what happened.

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You know in all the time ive been waiting for a crash ive never known so much bear talk by people in the upper echelons of the powers that be.

The last 2 weeks have been like an awakening for the nation, its as if they know a crash is inevitable.

Maybe, but no one watches the news or reads papers...most judge the housing market on what Phil and Kirsty are saying.

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Maybe, but no one watches the news or reads papers...most judge the housing market on what Phil and Kirsty are saying.

They are the news and the papers.

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Who the hell is pushing these stories / propaganda into the media?

His comments came amid reports that the UK's most expensive flat ever has been sold for £140m.[/size]

The flat in question is recycled from a Times article tha was published in 2010. There have been no flats recently that have sold for £140m

Sir Jon, who has responsibility for financial stability, predicted that house prices would continue to rise for some time.

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correction is a fantastic word for the boe to be using!

Could it be a last minute dash to cover their arses?

"See, we did try to warn you"

Anyway, good to see it being said. A whole heap of bear food in the media recently. Are the banks now sufficiently positioned for a fall? Has the smart money (Gidiot's friends etc) all moved out of PCL property? Maybe the time really has come?!

(I'll believe it when I see it)

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Could it be a last minute dash to cover their arses?

"See, we did try to warn you"

Anyway, good to see it being said. A whole heap of bear food in the media recently. Are the banks now sufficiently positioned for a fall? Has the smart money (Gidiot's friends etc) all moved out of PCL property? Maybe the time really has come?!

(I'll believe it when I see it)

For years this website banged on and on about a correction, but nobody listened. Now the BOE have started on about a correction. If you are in the Ponzi, this really is time to get out. Cut your price and just get out.

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Could it be that Osborne went too early with his house price stimulus/miracle recovery? Will they be able to keep the plates spinning until next May?

Could it be he's realised it's not a vote winner !!!!

What a ****

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For years this website banged on and on about a correction, but nobody listened. Now the BOE have started on about a correction. If you are in the Ponzi, this really is time to get out. Cut your price and just get out.

Can you smell the fear.

I have to say over the last 6 months we've been screaming it from the roof tops !!!

The BoE have a sin to answer for...they even stopped replying to my emails asking reasonable questions about what was obviously happening.

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