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rantnrave

Land Reg March - Read All About It

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Interesting.

Financial Times says "

"Land Registry records house price fall.

Data suggest market outside London may be softening".

http://www.ft.com/home/uk

Looks like even the introduction of HTB has not allowed prices to go up in areas outside London.

And I think from my own searches in the south west/south Wales, sales have got worse very recently. Many falling through and lots of price reductions.

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Wales down 4.2% in a month.

As these are actual "sold" prices, I should think that this is a lot more than a "softening" market in some areas.

No wonder I am seeing so many price reductions.

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Booming in Blackpool despite a dip in March, insists the Daily Mail. <_<

And the truth (ex-NI because that's too painful to bear) - more than half the country's softening and Osbo appears to have spunked off HtB2 much, much too soon.

article-2616719-1D78588F00000578-954_634

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And the truth (ex-NI because that's too painful to bear) - more than half the country's softening and Osbo appears to have spunked off HtB2 much, much too soon.

That was the consensus here when all this htb was announced and I still think it stands. I can't see the market clinging on with its fingernails all the way until the election.

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And the truth (ex-NI because that's too painful to bear) - more than half the country's softening and Osbo appears to have spunked off HtB2 much, much too soon.

Only if you think HTB was purely for election.

I think it had more to do with being the only lever they had to prime business investment again. The election benefit was a bonus.

The proof will be if they tighten on the property bubble in London now - and all the press briefings seem to be in that direction.

Business investment is starting to happen so it may still turn out to have been the right thing to do - even if it impacts me personally.

It's in Osborne's interest for modest sustainable growth - he doesn't want to labelled in the way Gordon Brown has been for leaving things in a mess.

Osborne has a long game - he wants to be PM not the Chancellor who broke the economy again - so will be working to a personal 10 year plan not an 18 month electoral one.

It may even be in his favour for Tories to lose next one - and have people screaming for a prudent safe pair of hands in 6 years time with Osborne as Conservative leader - and country in a state after Balls has emptied to the coffers again.

Osborne has shown remarkable prudence in last 2 budgets which have not been the large scale give-aways they could have been against a backdrop of an improving economy.

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Booming in Blackpool despite a dip in March, insists the Daily Mail. <_<

And the truth (ex-NI because that's too painful to bear) - more than half the country's softening and Osbo appears to have spunked off HtB2 much, much too soon.

article-2616719-1D78588F00000578-954_634

So outside of London, property prices are treading water against inflation...

Edited by rantnrave

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Only if you think HTB was purely for election.

I think it had more to do with being the only lever they had to prime business investment again. The election benefit was a bonus.

The proof will be if they tighten on the property bubble in London now - and all the press briefings seem to be in that direction.

Business investment is starting to happen so it may still turn out to have been the right thing to do - even if it impacts me personally.

It's in Osborne's interest for modest sustainable growth - he doesn't want to labelled in the way Gordon Brown has been for leaving things in a mess.

Osborne has a long game - he wants to be PM not the Chancellor who broke the economy again - so will be working to a personal 10 year plan not an 18 month electoral one.

It may even be in his favour for Tories to lose next one - and have people screaming for a prudent safe pair of hands in 6 years time with Osborne as Conservative leader - and country in a state after Balls has emptied to the coffers again.

Osborne has shown remarkable prudence in last 2 budgets which have not been the large scale give-aways they could have been against a backdrop of an improving economy.

Truly hilarious.

Delusional

Paid patsy?

Edited by oldsport

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Booming in Blackpool despite a dip in March, insists the Daily Mail. <_<

And the truth (ex-NI because that's too painful to bear) - more than half the country's softening and Osbo appears to have spunked off HtB2 much, much too soon.

article-2616719-1D78588F00000578-954_634

Nice! There is definite momentum towards a ratcheting down a la 2009

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Truly hilarious.

Delusional

Paid patsy?

It really isn't my intention to troll - just trying to be pragmatic / objective.

There is a real group-think on the forum where everyone talks themselves in to thinking next month we're going to see the big one - and that every action from anyone at BOE or in government is part of some massive plan to send houseprices to the moon.

Whilst there is undoubtably some of that going on - I don't think it's that simple and when I watch the Carney press conferences I see a guy who genuinely sees an issue and appears to be trying to do something about it. It's not a binary `just put IR up` situation.

I also don't see in Osborne someone who is mindlessly trying to inflate property prices, he wants GDP through business investment and doesn't have many levers to pull to make that happen.

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.

I also don't see in Osborne someone who is mindlessly trying to inflate property prices, he wants GDP through business investment and doesn't have many levers to pull to make that happen.

Really http://www.independent.co.uk/incoming/inside-westminster-george-osbornes-housing-boom-will-echo-into-the-future-8869835.html

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This latest data is ready for further perusal now at houseprice.io. Still a surprising amount of real terms red to be seen, though not in London.

Wow!! That web site is to house prices as what Google is to web searches. Credit to the site owner.

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A quick analysis of the raw data shows that in my postcode prices have risen by 1% YoY but transactions have absolutely collapsed: March 2013 = 41 transactions, March 2014 = 14 transactions - the lowest value EVER by some margin. To illustrate what a collapse, transactions in March 2007 was 121.

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Only if you think HTB was purely for election.

I think it had more to do with being the only lever they had to prime business investment again. The election benefit was a bonus.

The proof will be if they tighten on the property bubble in London now - and all the press briefings seem to be in that direction.

Business investment is starting to happen so it may still turn out to have been the right thing to do - even if it impacts me personally.

It's in Osborne's interest for modest sustainable growth - he doesn't want to labelled in the way Gordon Brown has been for leaving things in a mess.

Osborne has a long game - he wants to be PM not the Chancellor who broke the economy again - so will be working to a personal 10 year plan not an 18 month electoral one.

It may even be in his favour for Tories to lose next one - and have people screaming for a prudent safe pair of hands in 6 years time with Osborne as Conservative leader - and country in a state after Balls has emptied to the coffers again.

Osborne has shown remarkable prudence in last 2 budgets which have not been the large scale give-aways they could have been against a backdrop of an improving economy.

don't overlook the fact that Osborne is running the re-election campaign. Help to buy was an attempt to replicate the success of Thatcher's 'right to buy- a populist measure that could also be defined as - aspirational quite clever if you overlook the massive hypocrisy of the 'party of free markets' engaging in a blatant socialist intervention in the housing market.

Sadly for Osborne instead of being hailed as a saviour of middle class house buyers he is being seen as an irresponsible idiot intent on reigniting house price inflation- which is in fact the truth.

Basically what you are arguing is that sucking a lot of people into massive debt at the top of the market is a price worth paying to rescue the economy- morally dubious in itself- but made worse by the fact the 'recovery' being engineered is a debt fueled fantasy that is not sustainable.

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Basically what you are arguing is that sucking a lot of people into massive debt at the top of the market is a price worth paying to rescue the economy- morally dubious in itself- but made worse by the fact the 'recovery' being engineered is a debt fueled fantasy that is not sustainable.

That's a fair argument, although I don't see how else he could have created enough confidence for businesses to start to consider expanding.

Relaxing business tax etc. without some economic activity would have just mean more cash hoarding.

We are seeing now a return to businesses looking outwards again - so the end kind of justifies the means so long as they start to taper the HPI now - which is what I think we're seeing with the recent headlines on BOE stress tests etc.

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Only if you think HTB was purely for election.

I think it had more to do with being the only lever they had to prime business investment again. The election benefit was a bonus.

The proof will be if they tighten on the property bubble in London now - and all the press briefings seem to be in that direction.

Business investment is starting to happen so it may still turn out to have been the right thing to do - even if it impacts me personally.

It's in Osborne's interest for modest sustainable growth - he doesn't want to labelled in the way Gordon Brown has been for leaving things in a mess.

Osborne has a long game - he wants to be PM not the Chancellor who broke the economy again - so will be working to a personal 10 year plan not an 18 month electoral one.

It may even be in his favour for Tories to lose next one - and have people screaming for a prudent safe pair of hands in 6 years time with Osborne as Conservative leader - and country in a state after Balls has emptied to the coffers again.

Osborne has shown remarkable prudence in last 2 budgets which have not been the large scale give-aways they could have been against a backdrop of an improving economy.

Don't we have a £110 bn budget deficit and the biggest trade deficit in history? I don't see him having any scope for giveaways.

As regards the rest of your post, I believe George Osborne is the most political and short termist Chancellor we have ever had - everythign that was bad about Gordon Brown but amplified. The only thing he is interested in is winning the next election. I'm sure he'd also like to be remembered as a Chancellor who rebalanced the economy and brought long term growth - but so does every Chancellor - it's like being in favour of motherhood and apple pie - but with Osborne it ranks a long way behind winning next year. He is well known as a risk taking chancer with little patience - I believe the reason he brought HTB2 forward was because he panicked about how much traction Labour were getting from the cost of living theme. The idea that he is a master long term custodian of our country's economy is fanciful.

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A quick analysis of the raw data shows that in my postcode prices have risen by 1% YoY but transactions have absolutely collapsed: March 2013 = 41 transactions, March 2014 = 14 transactions - the lowest value EVER by some margin. To illustrate what a collapse, transactions in March 2007 was 121.

Don't solicitors have 3 months to register the sale with the Land Registry? Could this mean that the number of transactions for March 2014 isn't a complete set? (Just a thought which might easily be wrong.)

Edited by oldsport

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