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iamnumerate

Good Article In The Telegraph

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/ambroseevans-pritchard/100027150/null-points-for-eus-stress-test-comedy-but-french-property-slump-rings-true/

"The silent conspiracy of the British property owning and voting classes is to pull up the ladder behind them, and protect incumbency. It would be wonderful if there were a 20pc fall in prices to correct the biggest social divide in the country – best achieved by building houses – but sadly we can only dream on."

Although to be honest in London I would say more like 50% is needed.

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The silent conspiracy and so many tools available to the property owning urban elite to protect their serfdoms....including ZIRP, buyer incentives, planning controls and immigration. Milibot and Cameron must be loving life.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Although to be honest in London I would say more like 50% is needed.

Indeed - someone posted a tentative formula for establishing fair prices for buying in relation to rents. By that measure, London is 100%+ over-valued, so, assuming an overshoot on the way down, then it's greater than 50%.

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"The silent conspiracy of the British property owning and voting classes is to pull up the ladder behind them, and protect incumbency.

It sounds like a response to the article in the Spectator 2 days ago blaming the government for the stoke the house prices lunacy.

A case of "get onto the telegraph and get a blame the boomers article out - the eu elections are fast approaching".

http://

blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/04/politicians-have-jilted-a-generation-its-wrong-to-say-that-young-people-have-never-had-it-so-good/

Second, I will accuse recent governments of cynically stoking the housing market.

A lot of the rest of the article seems to be a "boost confidence in UK house prices as there's a general election coming in 2015" attempt.

It would be wonderful if there were a 20pc fall in prices to correct the biggest social divide in the country – best achieved by building houses – but sadly we can only dream on.

Edited by billybong

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Indeed - someone posted a tentative formula for establishing fair prices for buying in relation to rents. By that measure, London is 100%+ over-valued, so, assuming an overshoot on the way down, then it's greater than 50%.

The tentative formula that has been used for years is 96x monthly rental equals the sale price but you could take 3.5 average salary as well but they are just long term trends.

Edited by davidg

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The tentative formula that has been used for years is 96x monthly rental equals the sale price but you could take 3.5 average salary as well but they are just long term trends.

That's even worse - I get 300% or more over-valued for our gaff... £1350 monthly = £130,000, but similar houses on the street are going for around £500,000

Edited by tomandlu

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Was just talking about something similar in another thread. I think conspiracy is just about right. What I wrote elsewhere:

"Id be interested to know what percentage of voters are owner occupiers. I have been bandying about the number 65%, when discussing some opinion polls, as a reason why voters are so unconcerned about housing, but it has struck me that this number I think is wrong. Its 65% of the population that is an owner occupier, not 65% of voters. So if there is a disproportionate number of people renting who cannot vote, like low skilled immigrants, that means that the percentage of voters who are owner occupiers (ie gain from rising house prices) is actually more than 65%, but I dont know how much more because I dont know anything about immigration numbers. Would seem to explain even more strongly why the opinion polls show voters as unconcerned. Not to mention that a lot of voters are not too happy about a lot of these immigrants anyway."

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