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tomandlu

How Does It Play Out - Vote

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Here's my stab at broadly listing the generic possible outcomes for the UK, from the absurd to the scary...

With the possible exception of number 1, I'm not entirely sure which one I favour as an outcome, and 2 or 3 could be the eventual consequences of 5.

In the end, I've voted for 5, with 3 a close second...

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I believe that a containable crash will come fourth. 2009 - 2012 banks were lending at safe multiples, many who bought before this time have pad down some of their mortgage.

The London bubble is not as leveraged as the 2002-2007 bubble, so the impact on banks will be less.

Reasons for property not continuing to rise: Interest rates cannot be lowered any further, building has picked up and rents have stagnated and will not rise until real wages pick up. All of the above coupled with 'record high prices' now makes property a bad investment compared to the 2008 therefore investors will not be 'snapping up bargains' when prices fall,. if anything it will be investors offloading in the next downward cycle.

Socially there is much more will to allow prices to fall and give the under 35's a chance.

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I dont know, but im a horrid cnt these days so i hope for no.5, i'm also waiting for the Chinese financial markets to burst, interest rates to rise so we get more people evicted and zombie businesses go bust, dotcom bubble to burst and a run on the stock markets, the pound to crash, etc...... all these things are good for me as they're all backed by QE, financial trickery, low interest rates and make working a pointless exercise.

But if no.5 were to happen life would go on and and there would be no major social breakdown, things will be bad for asset owners and the unskilled but after a year or 2 then it'll pick up.

Edited by Corruption

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I dont know, but im a horrid cnt these days so i hope for no.5, i'm also waiting for the Chinese financial markets to burst, interest rates to rise so we get more people evicted and zombie businesses go bust, dotcom bubble to burst and a run on the stock markets, the pound to crash, etc...... all these things are good for me as they're all backed by QE, financial trickery, low interest rates and make working a pointless exercise.

But if no.5 were to happen life would go on and and there would be no major social breakdown, things will be bad for asset owners and the unskilled but after a year or 2 then it'll pick up.

So more extreme than 4 but not as apocalyptic as 5? Okay, but I have my doubts - mainly because it would hit the elites (asset owners) hard, and they have the clout to fight it. Ironically, this will make things worse for them than if they'd admitted defeat gracefully, but that won't stop them...

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2 for me. Permanent feudal zombie nation. Even if there's a crash what's to stop USA style osituation where investment banks like blackrock just buy all distressed property in huge numbers to rent out putting a floor on prices.

I can't see a crash whilst the banks are providing half the donations to the torys and the boomers are still the king makers. A mixture of banking greed its subversion of politics and society combined with political necessity has kept the status quo, until that changes, who knows?

I hope I'm wrong.

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mainly because it would hit the elites (asset owners) hard, and they have the clout to fight it. Ironically, this will make things worse for them than if they'd admitted defeat gracefully, but that won't stop them...

The elites tried that in the crash of 1929 and lots everything.

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5. The UK cannot grow its way out of debt so a default is inevitable. The only question is whether that default is super-inflationary or hyperinflationary. The same appears true of Japan, China, Russia, Brazil and most of Europe hence the collapse will be systemic.

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IMO...

War is a great leveller.

The elite have to give ground to the masses after a substantial war, or risk the realisation that 'we' died only to be put back under the yoke of 'them', and we have the strength and means to do something about it. When half a million young men have fired a gun in anger, you're going to make sure they aren't too discontented with their lot. The alternative was aptly demonstrated in Russia circa 1917.

The militarism of traditional elites is a means of control - send the etonian sons out to fight & die on the front line so that the elite can claim a part in the 'we' and retain the belief that 'we' need 'them'.

A side effect of this is that many of the privileged who come home do so with a deep commitment to the men they fought with, and this in itself is an agent for change.

We haven't had a war that threatened our country in a meaningful sense since 1945. What we are living through now is the prolonged death of the unwritten post-war social contract. The stake the bottom 50% have in society is being eroded, advancement opportunities for young people from a normal background are diminishing, social mobility is falling, the welfare state and NHS gradually attacked, the average person increasingly denied home ownership or even a decent secure alternative.

It will get worse before it gets better. I think 2 has to come before 3.

We seem to think we changed the world, and 1939 can't ever happen again. My grandmother is in her late 80's. She lived through the blitz in her teens, and was a nurse in London during the latter part of WW2. She is the last of that generation in my family who remembers the horror of bombing. Once it passes out of living memory, war can and will come again at some point in the long term.

Whether society can and will achieve a more equitable settlement before then is probably still questionable.

Edited by disenfranchised

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I think it's gone too far now to be anything other than number 5. They have done everything possible to delay the correction, ultimately allowing massive mal-investment throughout the economy, not least in real estate. I just don't see how this can unwind in even a semi-controlled way. We're looking at a global event - how and when this will occur isn't clear but i believe when the elites are backed into a corner their answer is war.

That's my cheery thought for the day :)

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No one for number 3? Well, we're a cheerful bunch... ;)

(but, given the lack of votes for 1, apparently not stupid...) I stand corrected...

Edited by tomandlu

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For every pound that is repaid two or three further pounds will have to be borrowed......so 2 leading to 5....2 being the beneficiaries that ultimately lead to 5 as unsustainable at that level.......reset. ;)

Edited by winkie

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2 for me. Permanent feudal zombie nation.

I'm not sure how far feudalism could really progress. People will only take it, and inequality, to a certain point before they'll be on the streets. We've already seen from the London riots that if any substantial number of people do that the police cannot manage it. Heads on pikes would be likely.

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My answer is "for the foreseeable future the transfer of wealth from working renters (enslavement) continues, with token gestures and tinkering around the edges to make things 'fairer' if Labour are in government next parliament, but basically, as you were. No idea if there will be a crash, but the most likely I think is real terms stagnation and wages catching up over years."

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