Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Recommended Posts

I just types "london house prices" into google and what I got was an endless list of ramping with the odd warning piece thrown in.

I was quite taken aback by the stupidity of it all and quite clearly there is going to be a HUGE correction...it's like the last days of the london empire...a fine cinema by all acounts.

The tory chancellor shoul dbe locked up with his banker friends for that they are doing !!!

Here's the first page:

"

Price of 3-bedroom house in prime London areas 'has risen ...
The Guardian ‎- 2 hours ago
House prices 'rising by over £700 a day' in parts of London
ITV News‎ - 9 hours ago
Average property in 'prime' London to reach £2m by end of ...
Daily Mail‎ - 13 hours ago
London house price surge to slow after frenzied year - City AM
www.cityam.com/.../london-house-price-surge-slow-after-frenzied-year‎
1 day ago - LONDON house prices could rise more moderately in the months ahead
Homeowners raising average asking price in London by 7 ...
www.theguardian.com › Business › Housing market‎
13 Apr 2014 - For sale signs outside houses in north London, where average asking prices have increased by more than 7% a month, says property website ...
London Housing Market Shows Early Signs of Slowdown
www.ibtimes.co.uk/london-housing-market-shows-early-signs-sl...‎
by Shane Croucher - in 178 Google+ circles
1 day ago - Hometrack finds house prices rise in two-thirds of London post codes in April against 76% average.
London house prices jump by twice the average income ...
www.telegraph.co.uk › Finance › Personal Finance › House Prices
15 Apr 2014 - House prices are rising "strongly" across most parts of the UK with a record average of £253000, new figures from the Office for National ...
London house price boom could 'unravel', warns Deutsche ...
www.telegraph.co.uk › Finance › Economics‎
2 Apr 2014 - London house prices could "unravel" in the face of a toxic mix of a strengthening pound and the Bank of England rushing through interest rate ...
House prices: What to expect - news and predictions | This ...
www.thisismoney.co.uk/.../House-prices-What-expect-news-predictions....‎
17 Apr 2014 - House prices are racing ahead once more, as boom conditions in London and the commuter belt drive figures up - but rises are now also ...
HS2 critics care only about house prices, says Boris ...
www.dailymail.co.uk/.../HS2-critics-care-house-prices-says-Boris-London-...
13 hours ago - The London Mayor said critics of the £50bn scheme were actually worried about house prices 'getting it'. Pictured is a graphic explaining how ...
"
!!!! Insanity !!!!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's as if Gordon Brown had never left office! I just want to know when the Tories and Dumbocrats are going to issue a formal apology to the great man. A statue in parliament square at the very least.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's as if Gordon Brown had never left office! I just want to know when the Tories and Dumbocrats are going to issue a formal apology to the great man. A statue in parliament square at the very least.

A statue to Com"raid your savings" Brown.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just types "london house prices" into google and what I got was an endless list of ramping with the odd warning piece thrown in.

I was quite taken aback by the stupidity of it all and quite clearly there is going to be a HUGE correction

When?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

"London house prices" is a huge topic and really means "areas commutable to London".

We have left now because we could not afford to buy, we were evicted from our rented flat and as each year went buy we were looking at a bigger and bigger commutable journey each day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's as if Gordon Brown had never left office! I just want to know when the Tories and Dumbocrats are going to issue a formal apology to the great man. A statue in parliament square at the very least.

Do you really think the housing boom wouldn't have happened if Gordon hadn't been in power? (been a boom elsewhere eg Ireland, the US, Spain - the difference is that the UK hasn't had the necessary correction).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you really think the housing boom wouldn't have happened if Gordon hadn't been in power? (been a boom elsewhere eg Ireland, the US, Spain - the difference is that the UK hasn't had the necessary correction).

Yet. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yet. ;)

Saying that, looking at the house prices against inflation graph on teh front page a tory MP from Eaton who's income has increased relative to inflation might well think house prices have already corrected.

They just need to generate the necessary wager inflation to make this a reality....and steal even more of everyone's savings ( mines included ).

Looking at the headline over the last few months...they really are trying to push up wages....the trouble is....the public sector can't have a pay rise due to the debt and the small number of real tax payers and the real tax payers and productive part of the economy can't get a pay rise because all their jobs have been out sourced/destroyed/taken by immigranmts/demeaned over the last 15 years. The only thing they thing they have to save us is debt/housing but this has been show to be a fallacy.

Something is going to give...big time.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Looking at the headline over the last few months...they really are trying to push up wages....

They cannot push up wages with their propaganda. Wages are a real expense unlike housing where they can convince the gulible into taking out a whopping great mortgage 'so they don't miss out' or fear of waiting 12 months and the debt will be bigger.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you guys actually know people / home owners in London ?

There are so many people wanting to buy in London that

If prices crashed like in 2008 they would bounce back up within 8 months max.

Believe me I witnessed it happen before the bailouts / zero interest rates started.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you guys actually know people / home owners in London ?

There are so many people wanting to buy in London that

If prices crashed like in 2008 they would bounce back up within 8 months max.

Believe me I witnessed it happen before the bailouts / zero interest rates started.

I'm in London and I know that some areas are off the scale silly - just whisper that you're thinking about selling and you'll be up to your eyeballs in EAs and asking price +++ offers - but there are others where the market is stagnant and properties aren't shifting in anything like normal numbers (anecdotally a friend of mine in Zone 3 NW London has had their neighbour's on the market, and empty, for years and is starting to worry that the party wall will fall down before the seller gets "what it's worth"). I don't disagree with you in terms of what happened post 2008 but I think this is more a case of the "greater fools" being pulled in for one last hurrah before the crash proper. If you look at London as a whole rather than just at the most hyped areas then it's easy to see that demand is massively down on 2007 as time spent on market is high but supply to market is very low (if demand was anything like it was in 2007 we'd expect the time on market to be significantly lower, rather than higher, given the constriction in supply):

Average Time On Market By Type in London (days)

rollingtombytype-london-200701-201402.gi

Number of Properties Found Advertised for Sale in London by Type

countbytype-london-200701-201402.gif

http://www.home.co.uk/guides/time_on_market_report.htm?location=london&all=1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you guys actually know people / home owners in London ?

There are so many people wanting to buy in London that

If prices crashed like in 2008 they would bounce back up within 8 months max.

Believe me I witnessed it happen before the bailouts / zero interest rates started.

yeah i know at least 6 people including my missus that have sold in the last 2 years...they all said the same...glad to get shot of it...can't believe what some mug paid for it. before that...nothing was shifting for 3 years and plenty lost out...what happening now is the end game...not the start....government deposits and sub prime mortgages are not going to result in a sustainable housing market..its a speculative bubble...only the most idiotic or desperate VI can't see it.

i dont know anyone buying mind you.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you guys actually know people / home owners in London ?

There are so many people wanting to buy in London that

If prices crashed like in 2008 they would bounce back up within 8 months max.

Believe me I witnessed it happen before the bailouts / zero interest rates started.

by homeowners...do you mean interest only mortgage owner/bank tenants?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you guys actually know people / home owners in London ?

There are so many people wanting to buy in London that

If prices crashed like in 2008 they would bounce back up within 8 months max.

Believe me I witnessed it happen before the bailouts / zero interest rates started.

Largely agree. It's why I find the idea of a straight forward correction slightly absurd. There's too many people willing to jump in at each level.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you guys actually know people / home owners in London ?

There are so many people wanting to buy in London that

If prices crashed like in 2008 they would bounce back up within 8 months max.

Believe me I witnessed it happen before the bailouts / zero interest rates started.

All the different views in the market. Intervention bugs me when it shields such innocence from ugly nature of markets.

So for you, there's forever buyers snapping in when there's a bit of value, then up up and away again. HPI HPI HPI. Look at the DEMAND for housing they tell me so often - and how it means house prices justified. Whilst others say we need to protect the owner victims believing this.

We had a lot of intervention measures in 2009.. base rates dropped and QE. You do need some buyers going in during a crash. They set the lower prices of all owners homes. Just as happened during 2008. Not particularly many sales-buy transactions in 2008, but those taking place setting ever lower prices month after month for ALL homeowners. Lower values set at the margin.

Details:

Bought 270k

10% deposit put down

Repayment mortgage - £1250 per month

2 year fix ending end of 2013

Similar for sale 290 - 30

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Do you guys actually know people / home owners in London ?

There are so many people wanting to buy in London that

If prices crashed like in 2008 they would bounce back up within 8 months max.

Believe me I witnessed it happen before the bailouts / zero interest rates started.

Largely agree. It's why I find the idea of a straight forward correction slightly absurd. There's too many people willing to jump in at each level.

That would be nice - any more detail?

It already happened in 2008. Sharp price declines in space of just one year. Few transactions (against what had become normal annual sales transactions) but those that did take place, at ever lower prices each month, setting lower values on all house prices.

Where where where was all Crashman Begins DEMAND then, during 2008... which he now thinks would be there to put a floor under prices if they slide a bit?

Only in 2009 we had the rates floored to bring things back then, QE, BoE asset swaps, ECB lending on assets, FLS, China massive reflation to bring the market back with able and willing buyers. HTB since then topping things up more. Will there always be such buyers trickling in to pay around today's prices to keep market nice and stable? Some reports saying expecting buyer demand to ebb back in months to come. That Earl guy apparently selling off big portions of his holdings.

Asset prices rise not because of "buying" per se, because indeed for every buyer, there is a seller. They rise because those transacting agree that their prices should be higher. All that everyone else - including those who own some of that asset and those who do not - need do is nothing.

Conversely, for prices of assets to fall, it takes only one seller and one buyer who agree that the former value of an asset was too high. If no other bids are competing with that buyer's, then the value of the asset falls, and it falls for everyone who owns it. If a million other people own it, then their net worth goes down even though they did nothing.

Two investors made it happen by transacting, and the rest of the investors made it happen by choosing not to disagree with their price. Financial values can disappear through a decrease in prices for any type of investment asset, including bonds, stocks and land.

Anyone who watches the stock or commodity markets closely has seen this phenomenon on a small scale many times. Whenever a market “gaps” up or down on an opening, it simply registers a new value on the first trade, which can be conducted by as few as two people. It did not take everyone’s action to make it happen, just most people’s inaction on the other side. In financial market “explosions” and panics, there are prices at which assets do not trade at all as they cascade from one trade to the next in great leaps.

The dynamics of value expansion and contraction explain why a bear market can bankrupt millions of people. At the peak of a credit expansion or a bull market, assets have been valued upward, and all participants are wealthy — both the people who sold the assets and the people who hold the assets. The latter group is far larger than the former, because the total supply of money has been relatively stable while the total value of financial assets has ballooned. When the market turns down, the dynamic goes into reverse. Only a very few owners of a collapsing financial asset trade it for money at 90 percent of peak value. Some others may get out at 80 percent, 50 percent or 30 percent of peak value. In each case, sellers are simply transforming the remaining future value losses to someone else.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It already happened in 2008. Sharp price declines in space of just one year. Few transactions (against what had become normal annual sales transactions) but those that did take place, at ever lower prices each month, setting lower values on all house prices.

But 2008 is sort of the point - why did they intervene so aggressively? It wasn't to maintain house prices per se, it was to maintain bank balance sheets and, by doing so, the banks. The PTB, IMHO, had reason to believe that not intervening would have been catastrophic. Were they right? I've no idea really, although I'd love a glimpse into the parallel universe where no interventions took place.

To put it simply, when the correction comes, I don't think it will be like the '90s, I think it will be more like the '30s.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

But 2008 is sort of the point - why did they intervene so aggressively? It wasn't to maintain house prices per se, it was to maintain bank balance sheets and, by doing so, the banks. The PTB, IMHO, had reason to believe that not intervening would have been catastrophic. Were they right? I've no idea really, although I'd love a glimpse into the parallel universe where no interventions took place.

To put it simply, when the correction comes, I don't think it will be like the '90s, I think it will be more like the '30s.

1930s would suit me better than these market conditions. There's not much in it Tomandlu, when confronted with house prices at least x2 what I think they should be. It's a depression for many people now.

Think it was a head-guy at the FSA (recently stepped down) was said in past few weeks, that in retrospect, maybe they should have done massive QE not to maintain conditions as they were (including house prices), but for the system to withstand economic correction.. allow bad businesses to fail, old owners to step down, new younger smarter money to come in at lower prices ect (which was more or less avoided).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1930s would suit me better than these market conditions. There's not much in it Tomandlu, when confronted with house prices at least x2 what I think they should be. It's a depression for many people now.

Nonsens, the BBc has told me of the recovery.

It's a euphoria, not a depression....much like a excessive class A drug binge.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

1930s would suit me better than these market conditions. There's not much in it Tomandlu, when confronted with house prices at least x2 what I think they should be. It's a depression for many people now.

Think it was a head-guy at the FSA (recently stepped down) was said in past few weeks, that in retrospect, maybe they should have done massive QE not to maintain conditions as they were (including house prices), but for the system to withstand economic correction.. allow bad businesses to fail, old owners to step down, new younger smarter money to come in at lower prices ect (which was more or less avoided).

Largely agree (mainly as I think some sort of massive shock is unavoidable). However, it's worth remembering that the 1930s were marked by large scale intervention as well, and weren't a lot of savers wiped out?

Putting on a pair of rose-tinted glasses (as in "it wasn't a deliberate theft"), what I don't understand about post-2008 is that, once it became obvious that the banks were just treating the intervention as an excuse to keep the party going, why the PTB didn't further intervene to close the bar.

QE and all the other measures should have had one purpose - to recapitalise the banks away from being dependent on maintaining house prices, and to redirect investment to something worthwhile. They seem to have blown that one.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Largely agree. It's why I find the idea of a straight forward correction slightly absurd. There's too many people willing to jump in at each level.

...Would they be willing to jump in knowing and seeing there was a correction downwards?.....would not those that had more than one property sell to reailise their profits while they could and invest in something with greater potential, spreading their risks over different markets.......seeing things fall somehow sees there is less of an urgency, delaying ends up paying. ;)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

...Would they be willing to jump in knowing and seeing there was a correction downwards?.....would not those that had more than one property sell to reailise their profits while they could and invest in something with greater potential, spreading their risks over different markets.......seeing things fall somehow sees there is less of an urgency, delaying ends up paying. ;)

Yep. It seems to me that most of the people that I know that are still buying now are doing so because they feel that the market will keep going up as it has been. It is fear of missing out rather than the fact anything in their own financial make-up has suddenly changed allowing them to buy.

If prices start going down, you will immediately lose those buyers speculating on short term rises and these will be replaced by a much smaller number of buyers who find houses have suddenly moved back into their price range and are still prepared to buy regardless of the fact that the house is likely to be cheaper in a year's time. Houses will still be horrendously over-valued if they come off by 10-20% so it would take someone who really didn't care to buy at that stage.

This bubble has been so big and so prolonged that the shake out is bound to take longer as well. As prices start to fall, there will be more people than usual still thinking that it is just a blip, mainly because it will just be a blip in the context of the last 20 years unless it really takes hold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   209 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.