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TheCountOfNowhere

Is The Mega Bubble Dead

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I say yes....the asking prices alone have stopped me seriously considering owning a home in the Uk and actively trying to leave.

The London mega-bubble/super-bubble mania is insane ( a mania as it were ), I personally can't believe what I heard today at work and antecedently what's been going on. The london mega bubble is now the key to the whole thing collapsing and that can't be far off.

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Until the Government tries a last desperate attempt to keep the numbers positive until the election. But now they will have to really worry about UKIP and even Alex Salmond.

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Are ANY political parties speaking out against HPI though? As far as I can see, people are starting to come around to the notion that stupidly expensive housing is a bad thing or at least not completely desirable ... but until there's a groundswell of opinion against daft house price inflation I can't see politicians doing anything about it.

As for the new mortgage borrowing rules, I suspect that they'll turn out to be about as effective as the new finance rules in European football - i.e. about as effective as a chocolate fire guard. Money talks and the Tories aren't going to kill the goose that's currently laying golden eggs for them.

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I say yes....the asking prices alone have stopped me seriously considering owning a home in the Uk and actively trying to leave.

The London mega-bubble/super-bubble mania is insane ( a mania as it were ), I personally can't believe what I heard today at work and antecedently what's been going on. The london mega bubble is now the key to the whole thing collapsing and that can't be far off.

The London bubble says it all, asking prices of very modest small 3 bed terraced houses at 750-800K in zone 3, really pushes the point home that we are firmly in mania territory. The whole thing should have collapsed by now, it eventually will.

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It may not rise any further but how long will it take for the 20% rises that have occurred in the last year to fall back to what they were.... and then a further 30-50% drop from those prices for it to become something resembling a normal market again.

Only Ed Balls can truly resolve this i think.

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Ok I have said no house prices in the SE could easily be a level where buying one with a mortgage at 4% doesn't make sense. However I go along with Max Keiser when he talks about interest rate apartheid if you are able to borrow cheaply enough rent seeking can continue. I think I remember hearing that Zimmerman was able to borrow money at 0.75%. Rent seekers will take what ever they can get in yield.

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We will look back and determine that the top of the Marke was back in January, but it's not made it through to the landregistry and media yet. In another few months as people realise that prices have stopped rising the retiring BTL brigade will want to dump their investments because rents are low and interest rates are promised to rise.

Like the crash of 1929, once the selling starts it won't stop. TBH London property is expensive with 50% off current prices. If it takes down the rest of the country then good.

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We will look back and determine that the top of the Marke was back in January, but it's not made it through to the landregistry and media yet. In another few months as people realise that prices have stopped rising the retiring BTL brigade will want to dump their investments because rents are low and interest rates are promised to rise.

Like the crash of 1929, once the selling starts it won't stop. TBH London property is expensive with 50% off current prices. If it takes down the rest of the country then good.

considering the extent of how much it's been pumped it's going to be brutal

(and it's not just normal hearsay and papers...this has been absolutely relentless bombarding goebbels style)

in technical analysis terms. something that has risen 8-10 fold over 20 years NEEDS a correction.(basically 1994 bottom to 2014 top)

normal retracements (ie 38% or 50%) should not be deemed unhealthy.

..BUT..the property market went NASDAQ basically., nowhere in relation to fundamentals...so the correction and overshoot should put it more in the -70% category when fully flushed out.

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I voted yes. The credit impulse from HtB2 has peaked, the Taper has begun to bear down, Bernanke's housing bubble 2.0 appears to have bust. My biggest fear is that the ponzi schemer will come back with HtB3 targeting the regions this year, with a resumption of QE and murderous financial repression after the election.

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It may not rise any further but how long will it take for the 20% rises that have occurred in the last year to fall back to what they were.... and then a further 30-50% drop from those prices for it to become something resembling a normal market again.

Only Ed Balls can truly resolve this i think.

Labour would of course pursue exactly the same bankster/debt -friendly policies (in fact, they originated many of them when they were in power) but possibly the lack of confidence generated by seeing them back in power might be just enough to knock one of the spinning plates off of its pole ...

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Labour would of course pursue exactly the same bankster/debt -friendly policies (in fact, they originated many of them when they were in power) but possibly the lack of confidence generated by seeing them back in power might be just enough to knock one of the spinning plates off of its pole ...

Thats what i'm hoping for.

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There's no way the Tories will let it stop before the election, so I've voted No. It's been obvious all along that Help to Bribe was intended to boost the housing market simply to boost votes. If there's a dip, they'll come up with something else to boost the market, maybe even bring sales forward. I predict changes to stamp duty thresholds or the return of MIRAS at the autumn statement from Osbrowne.

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Labour would of course pursue exactly the same bankster/debt -friendly policies (in fact, they originated many of them when they were in power) but possibly the lack of confidence generated by seeing them back in power might be just enough to knock one of the spinning plates off of its pole ...

That's true- the only thing a labour government would not have been able to do is help to buy- no labour leader would have gotten away with using taxpayer money to directly subsidize mortgage's - not while the public sector unions still wield a lot of influence in the party. Ironically only a Tory chancellor could have implemented this socialist intervention in the housing market. :lol:

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Yes for me. Market running on pure sentiment. Different game from here on in from the feedback between sentiment, rates and falling credit underwriting standards during 1997-2008 bubble inflation phase and the slightly less potent feedback between falling rates and sentiment during the 2008 to present reflation phase. Government policy still slightly ambiguous but the fact that MMR was not completely defanged, that residential mortgages have been dropped from FLS and that the second phase of Help to Buy, i.e. the mortgage guarantees, was not extended at the budget suggests to me that the government are done sticking up for the bubble.

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considering the extent of how much it's been pumped it's going to be brutal

(and it's not just normal hearsay and papers...this has been absolutely relentless bombarding goebbels style)

in technical analysis terms. something that has risen 8-10 fold over 20 years NEEDS a correction.(basically 1994 bottom to 2014 top)

normal retracements (ie 38% or 50%) should not be deemed unhealthy.

..BUT..the property market went NASDAQ basically., nowhere in relation to fundamentals...so the correction and overshoot should put it more in the -70% category when fully flushed out.

Someone I know who works in Banksterville was looking at the predictions on this website and scoffing at the predictions of 30% falls.

Will remind him when it happens :D

He assesses risk for a big bank and didn't know what MMR was until I pointed him at this website a couple of weeks ago :unsure:

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When i look on my search areas on RightMove, Property Tracker is showing lots of little green arrows pointing down today, think if it really is the start of the real falls in Southern England we'll know in a few months.

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It will stall at HTB2 +20%, assuming no further intervention. We're not there yet. There's a perception that a bubble is 'forming'. When they start talking about engineering a 'soft landing', you'll know the end is nigh.......

Until then, keep the faith and build your fund!

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Not yet. I think they'll do literally anything to stop the market operating normally. If 20% subsidies fail, they'll be doubled to 40%. You don't realise that this isn't about house prices any more. It's an existential struggle. It's like Douglas Haig after the first day of the Somme. Whatever the losses on day one, he just had to do it again on day 2 and again and again for the next 140 days.

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It`s starting to feel like the early 90`s, remember London going through the roof TPTB pushing shared equity talk of rising interest rates sound familiar ?

Then what happend next

Interest rates shot up to 15%, only this time all western central banks are colluding to prevent this.

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Didn't interest rates only go up to 15% when prices were already falling for a year or more, and then only for a very short period of time?

However, this time I don't think it necessarily needs base rate rises for this bubble to deflate, although it will likely be a lot slower to reach the bottom without them.

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