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MartinE

Referendum Priced In?

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Prices seem to be trending up - in EDI anyway, going along with the wave of euphoria about the economy rising UK wide, plus some of the same props applying RUK.

No 600k HTB, but the SCO Government has its own pokers in the HPI fire - The Sco HTB scheme seems to have made any family home new builds just shy of 400k. And as an equity loan on more favourable terms than the RUK one, I almost feel sad to miss out on it.

But what about the referendum??

Is everyone assuming a ' No' and as such house buying is business as usual? Or more likely, no one is giving it much thought and so we will see a dip in the autumn? Or is the economy 'news' and HPI props conquering all?

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Assuming a 'no' would be a dangerous mistake as the lunatics are well and truly out of the asylum and prosletysing on every street corner. Having denied the vote to Scots living in England who might have had some experience of life outside and therefore a more sane and sensible view of the world, while extending the fanchise to 16 year old numpties with no knowledge of anything, the Gnats are on a roll and anything could happen.

Anyway I think what you are seeing may be an East Coast phenomenon, when I was up home recently it looked like Glasgow and Lanarkshire were still way down.

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From own market observations, yes referendum priced in and resulting in further stagnation or drops everywhere apart from the likes of Morningside and the New Town. Noticed a lot of houses on the market this spring going on at prices similar to before the boom looks like a lot of desperate people trying to cash out and flee Scotland hanging on to the back of the Nationwide HPI which yes is happening in England but certainly not Scotland. And as the poles are closing and it's looking like the Yes vote may win prices are dropping just look at the Lothians and ignore the ESPC reports.

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From own market observations, yes referendum priced in and resulting in further stagnation or drops everywhere apart from the likes of Morningside and the New Town. Noticed a lot of houses on the market this spring going on at prices similar to before the boom looks like a lot of desperate people trying to cash out and flee Scotland hanging on to the back of the Nationwide HPI which yes is happening in England but certainly not Scotland. And as the poles are closing and it's looking like the Yes vote may win prices are dropping just look at the Lothians and ignore the ESPC reports.

The Central Belt is not Scotland. Prices are certainly not dropping in Aberdeen nor the Highlands and Islands. HPI very much in evidence.

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Wouldn't a Yes result mean higher prices, as Scottish left-wingers decide to leave England in the hands of UKIP?

In my opinion, Scotland is likely to be a much stronger economy than the rest of the Kingdom. The south will have some tough times - with oil stripped out, the balance of payments in a deeper hole, and Osborne continuing to stack up debt. I'm worried I won't be able to afford to move back north.

Anyway, I agree - no real falls on the east coast.

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The Central Belt is not Scotland. Prices are certainly not dropping in Aberdeen nor the Highlands and Islands. HPI very much in evidence.

Perhaps it would be more apt to say that some parts of Scotland, such as Aberdeen, are treading water and some parts of the region may get you back a 2007 investment + pocket change. Of course some nicer bits like Milltimber and the £500k++ west end stuff has been solid. Not sure about your take on HPI however, unless you are excluding the peak in 2008, big stamp duties and mortgage fees. You'd make more money in a savings account TBH as discussion of HPI alludes, to me at least, that you are talking of property as an investment.

http://www.pressandjournal.co.uk/Article.aspx/3666902

House prices across the north and north-east have fallen, according to official figures.

A report by the Registers of Scotland shows the average cost of a home in Aberdeen, one of the strongest areas for sales in the country, dropped from £207,479 to £205,365 in the last quarter.

In Aberdeenshire, property prices have fallen further – from £221,388 to £212,787 – a fall of almost 4%.

Edited by cashinmattress

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I can’t really agree with your statement “Perhaps it would be more apt to say that some parts of Scotland, such as Aberdeen, are treading water”. It obviously depends on the period over which you analyse the trend. If we analyse the past 5 years, although prices have not as yet passed the peak of 2007 the trend line for price increases has been relentlessly upwards from the 1st quarter of 2009, which appears to have been the nadeer post the 2007 peak.

In the most recent comparative year, the average price increase from Q4 2012 to Q4 2013 is 8.6%.

I haven’t had direct sight of the ROS figures for Q1 2014 yet, but from those referred to in the P&J this indicates an average drop of 1.01% for Aberdeen. I am surprised at this when I match it against my personal property hunting experience of mostly West End flatted properties. It would be good if this continued through the next quarters, but I can’t help but be sceptical given the past 5 years trend line.

Edited by Alba

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