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Sour Mash

How Long Before We See More Qe?

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With key areas of the economy apparently roaring - due entirely to low interest rates and easy availability of large amounts of central bank money to the financial sector - there will be inevitable pressure on bond yields to increase as people prefer to put their money into things that can provide better returns. This of course implies a knock on effect on interest rates as once the '100% safe borrower' government starts paying more to borrow, the public must do so also (otherwise why lend to private entities that present a much higher risk of default).

Of course, this will completely burst the bubble, therefore bond yields must be held low. This will almost certainly require more central bank purchases of government debt.

How long do we think it will be before we see QE 'extended' ... before the end of this year maybe? And how will they sell it to the public and markets - trot out the deflationary strawman again?

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With key areas of the economy apparently roaring - due entirely to low interest rates and easy availability of large amounts of central bank money to the financial sector - there will be inevitable pressure on bond yields to increase as people prefer to put their money into things that can provide better returns. This of course implies a knock on effect on interest rates as once the '100% safe borrower' government starts paying more to borrow, the public must do so also (otherwise why lend to private entities that present a much higher risk of default).

Of course, this will completely burst the bubble, therefore bond yields must be held low. This will almost certainly require more central bank purchases of government debt.

How long do we think it will be before we see QE 'extended' ... before the end of this year maybe? And how will they sell it to the public and markets - trot out the deflationary strawman again?

Call me a fruit cake if you like but I genuinely believe the Q.E. train stopped the day the Queen visited the bank of England for the "look it really is gold bullion" photo-op.

In my fruit cake world I think she knows why the Germans went to war and one of the reasons for this was their money printers. The German population is still not keen on debt and Q.E. is a big no-no for them, I believe as one of the few remaining old style European monarchs she values, shall we say, her and her families position. I have no proof of this of course, just a gut feeling. I think this is maybe why we have seen various inventive ways to stop the deflation the in-debted fear.

Our dear old queen ( and I am not a royalist by any means ) may well have done us all a favour.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/royalfamilyvideo/9742780/Queen-and-Duke-of-Edinburgh-visit-gold-vault-at-Bank-of-England.html

This report around "3:17PM GMT 13 Dec 2012" - after which there has been no further q.e.

Time will tell.

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Call me a fruit cake if you like but I genuinely believe the Q.E. train stopped the day the Queen visited the bank of England for the "look it really is gold bullion" photo-op.

In my fruit cake world I think she knows why the Germans went to war and one of the reasons for this was their money printers. The German population is still not keen on debt and Q.E. is a big no-no for them, I believe as one of the few remaining old style European monarchs she values, shall we say, her and her families position. I have no proof of this of course, just a gut feeling. I think this is maybe why we have seen various inventive ways to stop the deflation the in-debted fear.

Our dear old queen ( and I am not a royalist by any means ) may well have done us all a favour.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/royalfamilyvideo/9742780/Queen-and-Duke-of-Edinburgh-visit-gold-vault-at-Bank-of-England.html

This report around "3:17PM GMT 13 Dec 2012" - after which there has been no further q.e.

Time will tell.

An intriguing theory. It presupposes that she actually has some power, which is debatable. But at the same time, I also at the time felt that this was probably a significant symbolic act of some kind, not simply a polite handshaking photo opportunity. Maybe a signal to certain other countries that efforts will now be made to curb the UK's inflationary enthusiasm somewhat from that point on...

Who knows!

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Call me a fruit cake if you like but I genuinely believe the Q.E. train stopped the day the Queen visited the bank of England for the "look it really is gold bullion" photo-op.

In my fruit cake world I think she knows why the Germans went to war and one of the reasons for this was their money printers. The German population is still not keen on debt and Q.E. is a big no-no for them, I believe as one of the few remaining old style European monarchs she values, shall we say, her and her families position. I have no proof of this of course, just a gut feeling. I think this is maybe why we have seen various inventive ways to stop the deflation the in-debted fear.

Our dear old queen ( and I am not a royalist by any means ) may well have done us all a favour.

So she's worried that more QE means no more QE II?

I get the 'self preservation' angle - and a prominent, established family is going to have a good feel for it ... but in reality I think that self-preservation for the Elite means providing bread and circuses for the plebs. That means resorting more and more to the provision of cheap credit and funding a deficit to keep the public happy.

Their mistake was the all too visible manner in which the people at the top benefitted disproportionately from the money printing and the growing realisation amongst the public that the cost of living was outstripping income rises. That's the sort of thing that foments discontent. Nothing a good PR campaign can't address and just need to make sure the media is on side.

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An intriguing theory. It presupposes that she actually has some power, which is debatable. But at the same time, I also at the time felt that this was probably a significant symbolic act of some kind, not simply a polite handshaking photo opportunity. Maybe a signal to certain other countries that efforts will now be made to curb the UK's inflationary enthusiasm somewhat from that point on...

Who knows!

Debatable.....why the **** is she at the Boe then? Why the **** can she invite the chairman of the BoE to her house and he toddles along. Why the **** does the PM toddle along to her house once a month. Who's friends and family run the army, banks etc ?

You seem to think we live in a republic.

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So she's worried that more QE means no more QE II?

:D Funny.

I think she is well advised and is of an age where she saw what happened when the common people encountered hyper inflation.

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Debatable.....why the **** is she at the Boe then? Why the **** can she invite the chairman of the BoE to her house and he toddles along. Why the **** does the PM toddle along to her house once a month. Who's friends and family run the army, banks etc ?

You seem to think we live in a republic.

No, you're probably right. But it isn't a formally mandated power is it. If anything such a view would lend credence to certain fringe theories about who actually wields the real power in the world, elected politicians or powerful aristocratic lineages/banking families etc. Personally I am sympathetic to views that err towards the latter group.

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You'd have to convince the german's though and I dont mean the queen this time :lol:

The German's really dont like debt and money printing. Ask one. They prefer sausages, hairy women and dodgy music. ( sorry couldn't resist it )

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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An intriguing theory. It presupposes that she actually has some power, which is debatable. But at the same time, I also at the time felt that this was probably a significant symbolic act of some kind, not simply a polite handshaking photo opportunity. Maybe a signal to certain other countries that efforts will now be made to curb the UK's inflationary enthusiasm somewhat from that point on...

Who knows!

She meets the Prime Minister once a week and has done for the couple of hundred years she's been in power ... question is has the Prime Minister got any power.

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You'd have to convince the german's though and I dont mean the queen this time :lol:

The German's really dont like debt and money printing. Ask one. They prefer sausages, hairy women and dodgy music. ( sorry couldn't resist it )

The funny thing is germany had a period of hyperinflation and one of deflation both within a fairly short period of time.

While both were painful only the bruning deflation period ended up being truly ruinous, to the extent that it was so bad that Hitler got elected to "fix" it.

Rewriting history seems a common trend among elites and peoples.

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QE has been normalised.

UK can only print though if the US is printing. Since that is unlikely (US will gradually scale back printing over the next year or so), the UK cannot print.

Biggest threat to UK is from divergence of economy from other dependent economies such as US and Europe. When we have to do something different to them then there is potential trouble ahead.

QE is just like a tax, and produces winners and losers like any tax.

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QE has been normalised.

UK can only print though if the US is printing. Since that is unlikely (US will gradually scale back printing over the next year or so), the UK cannot print.

Biggest threat to UK is from divergence of economy from other dependent economies such as US and Europe. When we have to do something different to them then there is potential trouble ahead.

QE is just like a tax, and produces winners and losers like any tax.

The UK can print whenever it likes, just like Argentina or Japan. The results may leave something to be desired, however. Just like Argentina and Japan.

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Call me a fruit cake if you like but I genuinely believe the Q.E. train stopped the day the Queen visited the bank of England for the "look it really is gold bullion" photo-op.

In my fruit cake world I think she knows why the Germans went to war and one of the reasons for this was their money printers. The German population is still not keen on debt and Q.E. is a big no-no for them, I believe as one of the few remaining old style European monarchs she values, shall we say, her and her families position. I have no proof of this of course, just a gut feeling. I think this is maybe why we have seen various inventive ways to stop the deflation the in-debted fear.

Our dear old queen ( and I am not a royalist by any means ) may well have done us all a favour.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newsvideo/royalfamilyvideo/9742780/Queen-and-Duke-of-Edinburgh-visit-gold-vault-at-Bank-of-England.html

This report around "3:17PM GMT 13 Dec 2012" - after which there has been no further q.e.

Time will tell.

Girl asks Queen to stop Crown Estate evictions

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-27141985

getting out at the top?

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All debt has to be paid off with QE by definition. Long way to go yet.

Nonsense.

If a debt is to be paid off, then it must be paid off with money, by definition. Not all debts are paid off! Hence there are two explicit logical errors in what you've posted - you propose that all debts must be paid off (FALSE) and that all debts must be paid off with new narrow money (FALSE).

The role of expanding the money supply and growing the economy as a way of reducing the burden of nominal debt is another matter, but your post as it stands is wrong.

duty_calls.png

Source: xkcd

Edited by ChairmanOfTheBored

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