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Venger

Bbc Radio Manchester - House Market Reaching Breaking Point

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Was listening to this in the car on the M60 yesterday morning. BBC Radio Manchester. Mike.S slot radio show began at 9am but I didn't tune in till 9:35 ish, missed the first part, and haven't listened to the start part again on iplayer. (Think 'The Knimbies who say no' gave his views about Kate F recently...)

First woman who I listened to who rang in, was in her 80s. Saying how she had to save up for a long time for their first house, then when they upsized to a large family home, had to do without for years.

Now annoyed that she can't downsize because people "can't get mortgages". Wants a smaller easier to manage/heat home. Then went into a rant how the feckless without housing equity get free care, as she might need herself in the future.

Then this bit. I can't find any recent release from NHF re prices though. Lot of reassuring each other everything fine with house prices...

My transcript..

Now the National Housing Federation - a bit of an apocryphal release from them saying Greater Manchester housing market is reaching breaking point... Kate Faulkner a property expert who was with us earlier saying 'not necessarily' -... you cut your cloth.. - and someone texted in saying you can buy a house for £40,000 in parts of Bolton.
~Roger Dean is with Roger Dean Estate Agents based in Timperley.. [Roger speaking to him from holiday in Palma.. saying he was about to put a T-shirt on because it was hotting up - banter then from presenter wishing he was away and saying he hopes it rains for him.]
I'm in South Trafford basically.. buying your first house has never been a cheap exercise, its always been a pretty stiff affair. Well it was particular hard up to the government changing their policy on you know, this guaranteeing 15% of the loan. Prior to that between 07 and that coming in the first time buyer market virtually came to a standstill because we were asking people for £20,000 to £25,000 deposit - which is a huge sum. When it used to be around £5,000.
~What would your solution be to that Roger?
Well we've got the solution in that the Government has come up with this scheme of guaranteeing the first 15% of the loan, so the lender still lends all the money, its just that the government gives a guarantee. And if the house is 100K then they guarantee 15K of it if the loan goes wrong. Now at the moment the chances of the loan going wrong are less than they were some time ago because the market is rising, and if someone is struggling with their mortgage well okay they sell the house at a small profit or at least they get out with no loss. Now when the market was struggling you've got an area where people were saying you know we've lost our deposit, there's nothing in it for us here, we'll walk away. And you know that's no good for anyone.
~ What's your thoughts on the housing market at the moment; are we in a bubble, or is this just a natural gradual rise slightly that will level off?
No it's rising because there is a lot more confidence about - you know we've noticed since probably September last year.. it's just infinitely better. Virtually I would say everything that's realistically priced is selling, at very close if not the asking price.
~ Am I right in thinking that if I wanted to live in Timperley but couldn't afford that £100K minimum, if I moved 2 or 3 miles out from Timperley in certain directions I would find something at less than 100 grand?
Oh yeah.
~ So what you've got to be is realistic.
Well in actual fact in Timperley the figure of 100 thousand er is too low. It's probably around 130 but if you move over the border into the Manchester zoning, Baguley, those areas, you certainly will get fixed up. It'll be an ex-council house, but you know, great house nonetheless.

Baguley is a small locality in Wythenshawe - not exactly an area younger members of my family got highly qualified to afford without over-stretching an ex-council house in at such prices.

Mike.S (from 9am) below beginning at 46mins, 57 secs.

6 Days left to listen: http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p01wrglq

27 September 2013
Do you think there's a danger of a bubble?
Kate Faulkner: I don't think there is; we've been talking about this for 5 or 6 months (laughing), and house prices and house price growth even at 5% is not back to its long term average which is inflation plus 2.8%. SO we've still got a long way to go and we've still got 6 years of an AWFUL.. HUGE FALLS in house prices that we've got to catch up on. So we've got another 5 plus years to go before house prices are back to where they should be.

Short iplayer video of her saying that in this news-link: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-24293971

Faulkner is the VI's VI. Totally dedicated, numerically illiterate, and supported by the usual selection of property widos they have on the telly.

Edited by Venger

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I have to say Manchester does look cheap (esp. city flats) when compared to SE.

I'm surprised there hasn't been more exodus of young people from London. It's got more creative culture in my view and the compactness of the city makes it a really nice place to live.

You can get a great apartment for £150K at moment. You'd need 3X for same in London but salaries are not that far apart, plus you possibly won't need to pay for commute in Manc.

I am surprised you can get anything in Timperley for 130K frankly, it's a cracking area and again would be off the chart if it was near London.

Baguley is interesting - I used to shop at Tesco there - it's an example that siting a large employer in a difficult area can completely reverse the fortunes of that area. Same with Asda in Moss Side the before/after was incredible.

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