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beenhearingthisforyears

Pension Fears Boost Buy-to-let

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That's exactly what I am doing - it is a great time to pick up a bargain - there are few buyers and loads of sellers - December/JAn is always the best time of year to buy and the absolute worst to sell.

That's just my opinion and NOT a recommendation to anyone else.

People seem to confuse "crash" with prices stopping rising 20% per year - which I would call a stagnation/bottoming out..

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Dr Bubbs predictions and bears hopes on this forum of mass sell offs and exodus of investors from BTL is a pipedream. The mindset is different from short term investors , they are in for the long term come rain or churning their assets in and out of stocks and commodities..the pension men did that already. Long term they have the belief they are better off going down this route.

People spout on about landlords subsidising their BTLs, compared to sinking hundreds of pounds into poor value AVC's every month this is nothing.

PS Totally agree with LL on bargins in winter, purchased all my properties during lead up and post xmas periods.

Edited by mercsl

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In 35 years of watching the property market I have never seen stagnation without falling prices. It is a market for heaven's sake.

If a property goes on, and sticks, and is still there 6 months later, then the board comes down, then a different agent is tried etc etc - when it does eventually sell it will sell for less than it went on the market for.

The biggest mystery is what is being compared to what.

House opposite me has a Sold board outside it. On the day we moved in about 3 months we noticed the For Sale board go up. Within a few days it turned to Sold. I remarked to my wife 'Wow, that sold quick. Maybe the market is not so bad after all' (because that is what we all do, look at a property and extrapolate it to represent the whole universe.)

Chatting to friends who live around the corner a couple of weeks after we moved in - subject of property came up as one of them is worried about redundancy and they would have to sell if that happened. I said 'that one opposite us seemed to sell pretty quickly'. They said 'you must be joking, that's been on the market for at least a year and has 'Sold' 3 or 4 times with different agents but it never goes through.' Having only just moved there we didn't realise it had been on the market before.

But when it does sell it will no doubt sell for significantly more than it sold for last time (whenever that was).

But it will sell for quite a bit less than it would have if it had been sold say 2 years ago.

Now, if I were looking for an investment - and I keep reading about BTL investors being in it for the long term - property as a pension etc - would I buy something now where the rent would not cover the mortgage payments and which, at least in the short term, is likely to fall in value? For me the answer is no. I'd wait a few years until I was convinced I was buying at the bottom of the market.

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Dr Bubbs predictions and bears hopes on this forum of mass sell offs and exodus of investors from BTL is a pipedream. The mindset is different from short term investors , they are in for the long term come rain or shine. Dr Bubb falls down because he expects these people to be rational but none of them are intrested in shifting there assets in and out of stocks and commodities..the pension men did that already. Long term they have the belief they are better off going down this route.

People spout on about landlords subsidising their BTLs, compared to sinking hundreds of pounds into AVC's every month this is nothing.

Alot of people who own a home are in it for the long run, it amazes me how these fools let themselves be repossessed after all they said they were in it for the long run.

BTW In it for the long run usually stems from it having a crap return at present and trying to validate thier crappy investment decissions.

The nuBTL i.e the past 5 year band wagon jumpers are not in it for the long run, they have just followed the money with no understanding of what they were doing. Some of the nuBTL brigade cannot even work out a percentage and would look at you as if you swore at them if you ask about yields.

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Marina - completely agree with you. A market is a market.

The "bottom of the market thing" is just about timing - round here, prices have been stagnant for 18m-2 years - so (& it is only my view) I'm prepared to take the risk now as I do not want to be part of the herd who are definite about the bottom being reached, as they will only be definite once they see prices rising. I have been there and you can't buy anything at a sensible price, you get gazumped & end up with sealed bids & it takes ages. So, my personal choice is to act now whilst it's quiet. However, I have seen thing starting to move - and it is not as quiet as it was.

I think that the rest iof the country is a bit behind London - but i don't know as I don't follow everywhere else.

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A long term investnment is a short term investment gone wrong, by staying in for the long term these people are admitting the market is in trouble. If the returns are falling new entrants will stuggle and loose money, stuggle and sell up or decide that it makes too much of a loss to enter... Falling transactions and demand to buy will be reflected in price...

Are these people the same peoples who had there pensions burnt in the stock market? Because they are going to be burnt again...

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That's exactly what I am doing - it is a great time to pick up a bargain - there are few buyers and loads of sellers - December/JAn is always the best time of year to buy and the absolute worst to sell.

That's just my opinion and NOT a recommendation to anyone else.

And you're absolutely right. It is the best time of year to buy.

People seem to confuse "crash" with prices stopping rising 20% per year - which I would call a stagnation/bottoming out..

People's definition of 'crash' varies wildly. Don't lump us all together.

You seem to believe that the market has bottomed out already - that's your call. Personally, I think there's a long way to go yet, so I won't be going back in for a few Winters yet! ;)

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Alot of people who own a home are in it for the long run, it amazes me how these fools let themselves be repossessed after all they said they were in it for the long run.

BTW In it for the long run usually stems from it having a crap return at present and trying to validate thier crappy investment decissions.

The nuBTL i.e the past 5 year band wagon jumpers are not in it for the long run, they have just followed the money with no understanding of what they were doing. Some of the nuBTL brigade cannot even work out a percentage and would look at you as if you swore at them if you ask about yields.

You could say same about the crap return from pensions, most of your return is gobbled up by massive front end loaded charges of some middleman till it gets going :) Compared to this so what if a LL subsidises a BTL for a few years?

Edited by mercsl

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That's exactly what I am doing - it is a great time to pick up a bargain - there are few buyers and loads of sellers - December/JAn is always the best time of year to buy and the absolute worst to sell.

That's just my opinion and NOT a recommendation to anyone else.

People seem to confuse "crash" with prices stopping rising 20% per year - which I would call a stagnation/bottoming out..

'it is a great time to pick up a bargain'

Do you really believe this or are you just on a wind up?

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Guys - I am not on a wind up -it's just my personal view.

If I get it wrong, you can all have a good laugh - but if i get it right - I will be pretty happy.

There is no difference with property as an investment (eg BTL) versus Stocks, Currency etc. it's all about timing.

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Guys - I am not on a wind up -it's just my personal view.

If I get it wrong, you can all have a good laugh - but if i get it right - I will be pretty happy.

There is no difference with property as an investment (eg BTL) versus Stocks, Currency etc. it's all about timing.

Indeed it's all about timing. Couldn't agree more.

However, if you believed that, would you hold onto stocks that were taking a dive rather than dumping them and buying back in when low?

Housing market is far more illiquid, I know, but I think there is a fundamental difference/flaw with 'amateur' BTLs that make them hang on to property when the sensible thing would be to cut & run.

I have heard many times from friends in the City that the sensible money got out of property ages ago.

Hell, even Sarah Beeny said so! ;)

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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