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House Prices Flat In November-nationwide

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Guest consa

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices remained steady in November, taking down the annual rate of house price inflation, the Nationwide building society said on Tuesday in further evidence the property market remains broadly flat.

The mortgage lender said seasonally adjusted house prices were unchanged after an unexpected 1.3 percent surge in October, suggesting that house prices are moving sideways even amid signs of turnover and demand for mortgages are picking up.

The November annual rate of increase slipped back to 2.4 percent after picking up to 3.3 percent in October.

"As we expected, the strong rebound in prices in October was temporary, driven by buyers postponing purchases until after the August base rate cut and the overall picture remains one of stability rather than acceleration," said Fionnuala Earley, group economist at Nationwide.

That left the average price of a home on the Nationwide's measure at 157,139 pounds compared with 153,439 one year ago when house price inflation was running at 15 percent.

http://today.reuters.co.uk/news/newsarticl...-NATIONWIDE.xml

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Guest Riser

Where is the HPI chart ?, we always get the wiggly HPI chart, maybe they didnt want to show it turning down again. B)

Last months blip in the Nationwides data was caused by uneven seasonal adjustment, once people realise the next move in interest rates is up and not down, and that SIPPS will remain a myth for 95% of them, the market will snap back and deliver the 10 - 12% YOY falls by this time next year.

Nationwide_nov.gif Nationwide HPI gets back on track after blip in October

post-1619-1133253209_thumb.jpg

Edited by Riser

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Quoted from the BBC reaction to Nationwide's announcement:

"But the Nationwide said that the UK housing market appeared to have achieved a so-called "soft landing" in the past six months, thanks partly to the Bank of England's management of interest rates.

As a result, prices have stabilised and not crashed. "

Early days BBC, early days . . .

Funny how the BBC left out this quote from Nationwide's statement:

"Most analysts agree with the Nationwide's view that the housing market has stabilised and will remain steady for some time to come.

'The data is consistent with our consistently held belief that we are in for an extended period of subdued house prices and that recently firmer housing market activity will not lead to sustained sharp rises in house prices any time soon,' said Howard Archer, chief UK economist at Global Insight.

'If house prices start to accelerate markedly, we believe buyer interest will soon diminish, thereby keeping a lid on prices,' he added."

http://uk.biz.yahoo.com/051129/323/fy1ah.html

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Guest consa

so what is the monthly figure for November then?

Usually they quote the rise or fall in the month, anyone got it?

SA - 0.0%

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Where is the HPI chart ?, we always get the wiggly HPI chart, maybe they didnt want to show it turning down again. B)

Well it's there now, and they reluctantly drew in this month's down turn...

_41068180_house_prices_2_gra203.gif

... but only half-heartedly and not accurately. Now we have a biased graph. I can't be arsed to complain to the BBC, maybe some of the more vociferous HPC regulars might like to sort out these journos.

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Well it's there now, and they reluctantly drew in this month's down turn...

_41068180_house_prices_2_gra203.gif

... but only half-heartedly and not accurately. Now we have a biased graph. I can't be arsed to complain to the BBC, maybe some of the more vociferous HPC regulars might like to sort out these journos.

Interesting how the y-axis starts from 1%. This somehow implies that the HPI figure can't go any lower than 1%. When the y-axis is +25% to -25% then we are really in business.

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Dead cat bounce?

No, this is not a dead cat boucing.

Dead cat bounce refers to prices recovering slightly after a fall, before falling again.

The graph shows constantly increasing prices.

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No, this is not a dead cat boucing.

Dead cat bounce refers to prices recovering slightly after a fall, before falling again.

The graph shows constantly increasing prices.

I think they are referring to the grey line - which shows up then down, not the red line.

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I think they are referring to the grey line - which shows up then down, not the red line.

The grey line, which shows up then down, shows positive year on year change, even when it's going down.

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No, this is not a dead cat boucing.

Dead cat bounce refers to prices recovering slightly after a fall, before falling again.

The graph shows constantly increasing prices.

YoY rises yes, but a lot of those months had actual MoM falls.

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The grey line, which shows up then down, shows positive year on year change, even when it's going down.

Well it looks to me like 18months stagnation-dropping from 20% inflation to 1%.

Inflation dropping is not the same as prices reducing - it means that they have stopped increasing as fast.

The interesting stats will be the next 6 months.

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Well it looks to me like 18months stagnation-dropping from 20% inflation to 1%.

Inflation dropping is not the same as prices reducing - it means that they have stopped increasing as fast.

The interesting stats will be the next 6 months.

18 months of rising prices does not look like stagnation to me.

But I'm a bear, and yes, the next 6 months I believe will start to show price falls. Just follow the graph down.

Ok, it's a dead cat bounce in the rate of change of prices.

Edited by selkirk

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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