Keep Yer Chins Up!

[erranta]

Spoke to an old friend 2nite.

Moved job to East Anglia for an Estate Agents - so from the Horses Mouth!

Wait for it!

Wait for it!

"Nothing selling without discount of 10 - 25% OFF asking price!"

So E.agents are now estimating @ up to a Quarter over market value.

CRASH CRASH CRASH - imminent! (That's for you Eric )

[ʎqɐqɹǝʞɐɥs]

[red]

Spoke to an old friend 2nite.

Moved job to East Anglia for an Estate Agents - so from the Horses Mouth!

...

"Nothing selling without discount of 10 - 25% OFF asking price!"

So E.agents are now estimating @ up to a Quarter over market value.

CRASH CRASH CRASH - imminent! (That's for you Eric )

10-25% off ASKING price...an asking price that was inflated to absorb a discount.

Beware! Don't get sucked in!

[Beadbo]

"Nothing selling without discount of 10 - 25% OFF asking price!"

Still not enough :angry:

[IMupNorth]

10-25% off ASKING price...an asking price that was inflated to absorb a discount.

Beware! Don't get sucked in!

Correct ! - the EAs are p1ssed off because they can't make that extra 20% stick. But they will keep trying.

Thats why all these tales of massive drops are really just nutter bears trying to talk the crash up and keep their spirits up. Reality is prices are static and they ain't going to drop until IRs go up 1% or more. And that isn't on the horizon.

Admit it bears, the world isn't working the way you want it to !

Crash ?! - not a snowballs chance in hell of a crash !

[Nomadd]

Thats why all these tales of massive drops are really just nutter bears trying to talk the crash up and keep their spirits up. Reality is prices are static and they ain't going to drop until IRs go up 1% or more. And that isn't on the horizon.

Admit it bears, the world isn't working the way you want it to !

Crash ?! - not a snowballs chance in hell of a crash !

So no-one's bought a house in the last couple of years, then?

My nextdoor neighbour had his place (North London) valued 18 months ago at £420k. He would of got very close to that at the time. He moved overseas, but decided to rent it out instead of sell it, as his sister lives close buy so could act as a landlady on his behalf. I thought this was dumb move.

Last month, the house 2 doors away comes on the market: £375k. Still not sold. Average around here is now £330k, as the LR figures prove. BTW, there is another house exactly the same on Rightmove also, within a hundred yards, at £335. Been on their for 2 months, unsold.

Now, if you'd bought around here 18 months ago and wanted to sell today, you'd be looking at a 50k loss. Period.

So, to paraphrase your own closing comment:

Admit it bulls, the world isn't working the way you want it to !

Crash ?! - not a snowballs chance in hell of stopping it !

Nomadd

[Nem]

Gotta admire the people saying a crash will never happen...

Price drops for 14 months now..... hmmm 3 words spring to mind "wake" "smell" and "coffee"

A month away from the forum but come back to find the naive (IMupNorth) are still spouting b0llux

[Scooter]

One agent in Bury St Edmunds has publicly stated several times in the local press that prices are 10% lower than this time last year. No other agent in town has voiced an opposing view - their silence is deafening.

Yet asking prices of most properties are broadly unchanged.

New build asking prices are down about 5%, yet the additional incentives are worth at least another 5% this year.

Stagnation, my a**e!

As I've said before, the crash/correction/softening is well underway in the south of England. The VIs just have some very large carpets to brush the truth under.

Not obviously crashing in my bit of North London (I wish!). Just lots of properties for sale not selling, minor changes in stupid (insulting ) asking prices...

Edited November 29, 2005 by Scooter

[foxytrader]

Correct ! - the EAs are p1ssed off because they can't make that extra 20% stick. But they will keep trying.

Thats why all these tales of massive drops are really just nutter bears trying to talk the crash up and keep their spirits up. Reality is prices are static and they ain't going to drop until IRs go up 1% or more. And that isn't on the horizon.

Admit it bears, the world isn't working the way you want it to !

Crash ?! - not a snowballs chance in hell of a crash !

Hi ImupNorth

Personally don't think the 40-50% nightmares anticipated by some will take place either but thought you were also anticipating some pretty dramatic (>20%) falls for all the 2 bed flats and new builds in Leeds, Bingley, Dewsbury, Bradford etc?

Am I completely wrong or have you changed your view?

[Realistbear]

But that's my point Scooter. Superficially, Bury St Edmunds looks just like it did a year ago.

It's not until you start digging beneath the surface that the real truth starts to emerge.

Here's an example.

This house first appeared on Rightmove back in the early spring for £275K. Just after easter they raised the asking price to an eye-watering £295K and it went 'under offer' a few weeks later.

Fast forward 6 months and.....

It's suddenly back! Here and here, (notice how it looks just like a church from the back

).

The market is in a far worse state than the VIs would like to admit. The interest rate cut dividend lasted for little more than a month (and most of the suckers that it drew in won't actually managed to complete).

The state of the market may be reflecting the product of the name of the town in which it is located: ASSINGTON

[fatfreddie]

Its a bit like pre-dot.com crash feeling. Everyone is asking where are the FTBs but in effect this boom has been caused by the new breed of BTLs who have bought up with no homework done. Bit like speculative share trading. NOw when the going gets tough this is only the start now how will new breed of BTL keep their nerve when the market starts dropping.

The last couple of months with phrases we havn't heard for over 10 years are abound again

GLOBAL DEPRESSION

REPOSSESSIONS

UNEMPLOYMENT

HIGHER INTEREST RATES

NEGATIVE EQUITY

DEVELOPMENTS GOING BUST

BANCRUPCIES

CONSUMER CONFIDENCE DOWN

RETAIL FIGURES DOWN

I think things will be different this time X 10

30 % drop of 250 K = - 75K (oooouuccchhhhhhhh) thats being conservative for 2007/2008

[IMupNorth]

Gotta admire the people saying a crash will never happen...

Price drops for 14 months now..... hmmm 3 words spring to mind "wake" "smell" and "coffee"

A month away from the forum but come back to find the naive (IMupNorth) are still spouting b0llux

Whose naive ? - perhaps you are, as the guy who only watches the Hometrack survey. Personally, I prefer to look at the whole, bigger picture. Its always better that way !!!!!!!!

[IMupNorth]

Hi ImupNorth

Personally don't think the 40-50% nightmares anticipated by some will take place either but thought you were also anticipating some pretty dramatic (>20%) falls for all the 2 bed flats and new builds in Leeds, Bingley, Dewsbury, Bradford etc?

Am I completely wrong or have you changed your view?

When I first started posting here, over a year ago, I was very bearish. I would have said 40%+ falls, but I was being hoodwinked bvy the excitement of being a gung-ho type of bear. It felt good, it felt right, here was the truth.

Then in doing my own research in February I realised slowly but surely that most of the bears on here we talking absolute tosh. Thats why in February I said that prices wouldn't drop, whilst all around were nutters predicting 10,15, 20, 25% in 2005, economic armageddon, IRs rising to 6% etc etc. Once you sit down and look at the reality, you realise that for every reason for prices to drop, there is a balancing one pushing prices back up.

Thats where we still are as far as I'm concerned and thats where we'll stay for a while yet.

Prices over winter won't do a lot, through lack of interest. Then there will be the muted spring bounce, so again I don't expect prices to do a lot until after June at the earliest. By then IRs may have come down, but they may have gone up or most likely, they will still be at 4.5% !!

But back to the point, in Leeds with all those 2 bedroomed flats. I think these may well fall even though the rest of Yorkshire's prices will probably be static. Simply, there are far to many of those flats kicking around.

If you don't know Leeds, you just can't believe how many there are in such a small area, where there is just not the demand.

My own thoughts is that someone will end up renting them to the Council to put up asylum seekers and we'll have a mass influx as they have to go somewhere don't they. Well we wouldn't want to send them home would we now !!!!!

And by the way, I don't own property and have no vested interest. Just telling it as I see it. Trying to burst a few delusional minds along the way, as the blind stupidity of some bears is amazing. Some of them will waste their life away at HPC - the Hysterical Pundits Club !!!

[Guest consa]

IRs rising to 6% etc etc.

[Scooter]

But that's my point Scooter. Superficially, Bury St Edmunds looks just like it did a year ago.

It's not until you start digging beneath the surface that the real truth starts to emerge.

Here's an example.

This house first appeared on Rightmove back in the early spring for £275K. Just after easter they raised the asking price to an eye-watering £295K and it went 'under offer' a few weeks later.

Fast forward 6 months and.....

It's suddenly back! Here and here, (notice how it looks just like a church from the back

).

The market is in a far worse state than the VIs would like to admit. The interest rate cut dividend lasted for little more than a month (and most of the suckers that it drew in won't actually managed to complete).

Yep, I guess all the properties not sold do not make the official figures...

[IMupNorth]

Don't worry Consa, I've not forgotten our bet - Easter 2007 I believe. It's looking good - for me, anyway !!

IR's predicted to stay at 4.5% all through 2006 by some professional economists

[MarkG]

IR's predicted to stay at 4.5% all through 2006 by some professional economists

Don't tell me: the same ones who were predicting big drops all through 2005?

[erranta]

look at the reality, you realise that for every reason for prices to drop, there is a balancing one pushing prices back up.

Prices over winter won't do a lot, through lack of interest. Then there will be the muted spring bounce, so again I don't expect prices to do a lot until after June at the earliest.

By then IRs may have come down, but they may have gone up or most likely, they will still be at 4.5% !!

But back to the point, in Leeds with all those 2 bedroomed flats. I think these may well fall even though the rest of Yorkshire's prices will probably be static.

If you don't know Leeds, you just can't believe how many there are in such a small area, where there is just not the demand.

Just telling it as I see it.

[Dancing Bear]

professional economists

mutually exclusive

[IMupNorth]

Hey, erranta, I think you must be trying to make a point, but I'm colour blind.

[Jason]

Correct ! - the EAs are p1ssed off because they can't make that extra 20% stick. But they will keep trying.

Thats why all these tales of massive drops are really just nutter bears trying to talk the crash up and keep their spirits up.

So you admit Rightmove survey, i.e. initial asking prices, is bullsh*t? So, if you think there are overvaluations of 20%, what does that say of the rightmove figures!

[teddyboy]

IMUPNORTH

I think you are getting confused with people buying for profit and people buying for a home.

Any person - bears included - if told to buy for 250,000 - spend 50,000 and sell for 400,000 will naturally buy that £250,000 property. But the person who bought their house for £40K and then need to borrow £80K for the next step up the ladder will say F*CK THAT. I'm not doubling my mortgage with less time to pay it back for 1 bedroom!

This is why the market is stopping. It was initially the FTB's that left the market place. The BTL's stay-in because the FTB's that could not buy decide to rent off them.

NOW the second, third rung buyers (who must be close to their 40-50's seeing as the average FTB is in his early 30's) who bought their houses at a reasonable price and used to paying 10% of income on mortgage now find that they need to spend 20-25% of their income on mortgage are saying b0ll0x to it. This IS driving prices down.

The only thing propping up the market now is the BTL market getting fuelled by FTB's that cannot afford to get on the ladder. When IR's rise - which I strongly believe they will. That is when the bricks come falling down. As is stands the LL are holding the walls up - its just a matter of time.

TB

Edited November 30, 2005 by teddyboy

[punter987]

When IR's rise - which I strongly believe they will.

TB

Why on earth would that happen when the economy is going downhill fast???

Except in Leeds of course, which is absolutely booming! ;-)

[markyh]

NOW the second, third rung buyers (who must be close to their 40-50's seeing as the average FTB is in his early 30's) who bought their houses at a reasonable price and used to paying 10% of income on mortgage now find that they need to spend 20-25% of their income on mortgage are saying b0ll0x to it. This is driving prices down.

This is my first post after six months of reading this site so go easy on me. This quote is exactly where I am. This is my story.

Im 37 , luckily bought my first 2nd rung starter home, 2 bed semi with garage to side, long drive, gardens on a nice estate in Aylesbury in December 1996. Had no idea about HPI at the time as left home at 23 and had always share rented with 2 mates or the girlfirend at the time. Bought the house with the then girlfriend for..........................£55k!!! Atfer knocking thre vendor down from £58k. We had a £5k deposit after a hard year of renting for £450 p/m and saving. So we had a £50k mortgage. I think at the time I was on £18k p/a and she was on £13k. Sadly we split in late 1999 so in 2000 I sensibly bought her out for £15k so had a £65k mortgage.

This is now down to £61k after 5 years of living well, always clearing the credit cards monthly, but remortgaging back to low interest 25 year repayment deals every 1-2 years to keep the repayments as low as possible, currently £380 p/m, to enable me not to build up £15K+ on interest free credit cards (you know who you are). The house is worth £165k according to LR websites for recent sales in the same postcode, so have £104k equity, bit no savings due to good care free standard of living.

Sounds bullish maybe.................but........now have a lovely new lady fiance in my life for 2 years (engaged last october), we are planning the wedding for 2007, no parents finacial help, we have just found out she is pregnant 4 weeks ago, baby due June 06, and we want a modest family home, and she wants to have a stab at being a mum fore at least 1 year before going back to work.

Now by this i mean a 3 bed detached in Aylesbury, maybe a semi, garage, ensuite, utility room, bigger garden, basically bigger footprint than mine with more square footage. Now these now go for around £250k in Aylesbury if you dont want just a 3 bed 10% bigger than mine with an extra box room. In principle this should not be a problem, im on £33k, shes on £24k, we take home £3500 p/m between us so the current mortgage is about 11% of our income. The nationwide will trow money at us, we can borrow £220k max. All sounds wonderfull.................but.

We have to pay for the wedding and they baby stuff, am just remortgaging an extra £11k to pay for those in the next 18 months, so the equity will be down to £93k assuming selling prices remain static. This means I need to jump to a £157k mortgage to get up the next rung of the ladder, x 2.57 of my current mortgage and that scares me. The repayments will be £965 p/m 25y repay mort @ 5.5% average if I get a long term (5-10 years) fixed rate deal.

OK........so still sounds bullish on £3.5k p/m take home. But the girly wants to take a year off work with the baby, and may never want to go back and pop more sprogs, so my take home only will be £2k, so the mortgage will jump from 11% of income to 48%!!!!!!!!!

The sums dont add up with the remaining 1k p/m tp pay all our food, bills, pension payments, car costs, social life, cheap greek holidays, sky tv, broadband, pets etc. We would be in debt to the sum of hundreds of pounds per month very quickly living a more modest lifestyle than we do now and if the woman decided not to go back to work we would be severly knackered for money until the kids where all at school and she could get some part time work. And then if when the fixed rate ran out and IR had jumped 2-3% we would have to sell and downsize again if we where not to lose the house.

So in summary, we have decided to stay put, converting the back 1/2 of the garage to my work office / study (im a sales manager based from home), and turning the spare room into the baby room in the hope that in the next 18 months to 2 years the market crashes 40%+ so ours is worth £100k, the one we want is £150k, we can take our £28k equity and have an easier £122k mortgage with some chance of a reasonable lifestyle without being a mortgage slave.

This is what is wrong with the HPI since 1996, back then the house I want to trade up to that my house vendors did go to was only £80k. And they went from a £32k moprtgage to a £57k, +£25k. I have to add £157k for the same move up, x 6.3 the amount!!!!!

And before any negative comments, we have never had any silver spoons, weve worked hard to get where we are, we are both the first and only people in 3 generations of our familys to own any property, i grew up in a council house with mum dad and three sibblings. my mum still lives in and rents of the council (she refuse to buy it at a huge discount 5 years ago daft woman!) and I still consider myself "working class" although we have a middle class living.

Dispite my gains I want a huge 40-60% correction in the next 2 years, then maybe next year I will STR to keep the mortgage low!

Edited November 30, 2005 by markyh

[libitina]

Markyh, you sound as though you've had a busy few years.

Just a few comments

Why are you MEWing to pay for the wedding and baby stuff? If you saved hard for the next few months you'd have enough for a nice but not flash) wedding and although baby stuff is expensive and you want the best for your baby, they don't need as much stuff as you think. Cot, pram carseat couple of babygrows and that's about it...

But yes, I agree, the next rung up is a big leap!