Bruce Banner Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Can you remember a bubble that didn't pop? It'll go eventually. They always do. Very true and this one will make a hell of a bang! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I said last year london was in some kind of crazy bubble and it couldn't go on much longer. I doubt it will last this summer. What will spark end of the madness....now, that is a question. It will not be an internally created reversal. It can only be another global economic shock. Did anyone mention China? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 (edited) They can't stop it...only make the collapse longer/worse/more painful and give some people a chance to get out. Edited April 16, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 How ? Lower interest rates ? ( but rates are at 0.5 and ther government know savers are already against them ). Money printing ? ( The yanks are tapering and getting ready to raise rates, they care not for their school yard bi-atch ( the UK )) More schemes ? ( HTB wasn't popular amonst, well, anyone dont seem them getting away with a new scheme ). Media Propaganda ? ( That must be wearing thin on people now, especially in the internet age ). Force people to buy ? There will simply be more of the same loony policies that managed to turn the bursting of the last bubble (prices had dropped ~20%) into another boom. The name of the game is to hold asset prices as high as possible. If you think anyone is going to stop, let alone reverse, money printing then you are kidding yourself. IRs are about as low as they can go but there's no limit to the amounts of insane policies that can be dreamt up to provide 'help' for the housing market. Just look at HtB. How about some sort of UK version of FMAC for example? As for propaganda, most people still love high and ever-rising house prices, they're predisposed to it. It's just about the only way that the plebs can gear up with assets. The only 'concern' being voiced is by people being frustrated from not being able to get onto the gravy train, not that the gravy train exists in the first place. Until such time as there's a major turnaround in demographics whereby enough voters are concerned that they will never be able to afford their own house and start voting along those lines, this is unlikely to change. It'll pretty much take total economic collapse to demolish the London bubble IMO. The rest of the country will be thrown on the bonfire before that happens. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 It will not be an internally created reversal. It can only be another global economic shock. Did anyone mention China? Hedge funds are dumping stocks. Private equity firms are dumping LBOs. There's so little liquidity in the Japanese bond market that the 10yr went untraded for more than a day and a half this week. Eurozone non-performing loans are flashing red. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 (edited) It'll pretty much take total economic collapse to demolish the London bubble IMO. The rest of the country will be thrown on the bonfire before that happens. Well, that's what we are facing now. I think since 2007 we always have been. it started to look like a slow managed decline but I think they've lost control. Answer this....is the london mega bubble sustainable ? Reading the stats below 92 people ( 70 guests ) are reading this. There is obviously a lot of interest in the london mega bubble mania. I think we all know, one way or another, it's not going to end well. Edited April 16, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Well, that's what we are facing now. I think since 2007 we always have been. it started to look like a slow managed decline but I think they've lost control. Answer this....is the london mega bubble sustainable ? Of course not - but IMO when it finally bursts it'll be against the backdrop of all out economic mayhem and few people will be in the position to stroll in and pick up a 'bargain'. The government WILL keep doubling down on pumping asset prices up and London property is a key part of that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 (edited) Of course not - but IMO when it finally bursts it'll be against the backdrop of all out economic mayhem and few people will be in the position to stroll in and pick up a 'bargain'. The government WILL keep doubling down on pumping asset prices up and London property is a key part of that. The government WILL...until they can't. The government WILL until the food-bank users are stood outside parliament. You can't take £50 a week benefits off someone who is struggling to feed a family yet gift some spivs in London £60 a year untaxed, unearned equity in a shoe box house without some kind of fall out. As I said, this wont end well. Edited April 16, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Of course not - but IMO when it finally bursts it'll be against the backdrop of all out economic mayhem and few people will be in the position to stroll in and pick up a 'bargain'. The government WILL keep doubling down on pumping asset prices up and London property is a key part of that. I'm not looking for a bargain, but I am waiting for value for money. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 I'm not looking for a bargain, but I am waiting for value for money. +10000000000000000000000000000000000000 Though, I am still trying to get out. No such luck yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
renting til I die Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Disclaimer: I have moved our savings out of GBP. What currency/currencies have you moved into? and have you found any overseas account that pays a decent rate of interest? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 The government WILL...until they can't. The government WILL until the food-bank users are stood outside parliament. You can't take £50 a week benefits off someone who is struggling to feed a family yet gift some spivs in London £60 a year untaxed, unearned equity in a shoe box house without some kind of fall out. As I said, this wont end well. Of course it won't, we're going to hit the wall at maximum velocity at some point. I'm just saying that the idea that London prices are simply going to pop and revert to some sort of sensible level against a backdrop of economic life otherwise going on as normal is optimistic to say the least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 (edited) Of course it won't, we're going to hit the wall at maximum velocity at some point. I'm just saying that the idea that London prices are simply going to pop and revert to some sort of sensible level against a backdrop of economic life otherwise going on as normal is optimistic to say the least. Im not sure optimistic is the word. I can see it coming and there is no optimism about the it. This lunacy will stop....soon. Edited April 16, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I would like to see another 50% on top of London property to ensure that the most destruction is done when it all comes crumbling down. Disclaimer: I have moved our savings out of GBP. Surely money flows to currencies having housing bubbles? I would say that is largely why sterling is so high now. If you were right about London houses adding 50%, then you have moved out of GBP too early? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gigantic Purple Slug Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Im not sure optimistic is the word. I can see it coming and there is no optimism about the it. This lunacy will stop....soon. No. It can go on for a long time. The pool of money that is used to drive the bubble is much greater than in the past. You can think of loads of different end point scenarios, but there is no requirement for any of them happening quickly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomandlu Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I'm not looking for a bargain, but I am waiting for value for money. That 'value' may only occur when people like you wouldn't touch SE property with a bargepole (that is not a criticism of you btw, just an observation). Basically, what Sour Mash says... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cybernoid Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 We also have the unusual situation that a massive chunk of younger people do not have any mortgage debt - it's not like that has been exhausted yet - it's not even started. The VIs just haven't found the right mechanism to do it yet (40 year fixed). Too late, they're not interested, culturally this enforced homelessness has become entrenched. Practically, the freedom of movement renting provides is no longer optional, it is necessary if you want to stay in work and/or lead an interesting life. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Democorruptcy Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Daddy Bear always said there would be a crack up boom. What came after that in his list? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 That 'value' may only occur when people like you wouldn't touch SE property with a bargepole (that is not a criticism of you btw, just an observation). Basically, what Sour Mash says... I'm not sure what you mean there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomandlu Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 I'm not sure what you mean there. How cheap would a house in the Somme have to have been to find a buyer between 1914-18? Basically, this isn't going to be the '90s. "Aren't we clever?" say the politicians and bankers. "Look how high we've managed to pile these blocks of nitro!" Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted April 16, 2014 Author Share Posted April 16, 2014 Daddy Bear always said there would be a crack up boom. What came after that in his list? All out collapse ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 What I would like to know is where all this debt and cash money is going from the bubble prices sales....all the bubble London property sales only means the sellers that have lived there a number of years must have big money to spend....where and what are they spending the proceeds on, something better than London property? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 How cheap would a house in the Somme have to have been to find a buyer between 1914-18? Basically, this isn't going to be the '90s. "Aren't we clever?" say the politicians and bankers. "Look how high we've managed to pile these blocks of nitro!" An even stronger reason to wait and see then. Anyone who bought a house in the Somme in 1912 would have ended up walking away from it two years later, or dying in it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bruce Banner Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 What I would like to know is where all this debt and cash money is going from the bubble prices sales....all the bubble London property sales only means the sellers that have lived there a number of years must have big money to spend....where and what are they spending the proceeds on, something better than London property? Into the economy black hole known as the welfare state? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted April 16, 2014 Share Posted April 16, 2014 Into the economy black hole known as the welfare state? ........I think if we don't start investing big time in our future energy requirements and elderly long-term health requirements, the whole country will be held to ransom one way or another.....investing in real productivity not the trading/buying and selling of second-hand homes. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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