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The Masked Tulip

Anyone Going To Say It?

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It is the weekend but Monday is already looming closer.

HPC may be all that stands between Monday and 1987 :lol: Don't let Putin beat us to it! :lol::lol:

Edited by The Masked Tulip

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Was thinking the same mys self this morning, then I thought that the PTB read all my posts here and will make price double from the last top, just despite me.

House price will be 50% up on 2007 prices before the b@steds are through bankrupting the west,.

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It is the weekend but Monday is already looming closer.

HPC may be all that stands between Monday and 1987 :lol: Don't let Putin beat us to it! :lol::lol:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/10/tech-stocks-drop-markets-worry-fed-stimulus

There has been a rash of imo barmy IPO's. Some eye watering earnings multiples. I don't follow the Guardian's analysis where there is no reason but I am not overly familar with how the dotcom bubble burst. It is not as if an investor wakes up one day and says hang on these companies don't actually generate much if any revenue and have few tangile assets. Ok a mass generalisation.

So who is exiting? 'Smart' money?

Edited by Ash4781

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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/10/tech-stocks-drop-markets-worry-fed-stimulus

There has been a rash of imo barmy IPO's. Some eye watering earnings multiples. I don't follow the Guardian's analysis where there is no reason but I am not overly familar with how the dotcom bubble burst. It is not as if an investor wakes up one day and says hang on these companies don't actually generate much if any revenue and have few tangile assets. Ok a mass generalisation.

So who is exiting? 'Smart' money?

People finding that they can't get anyone else to buy their investment off them for a higher price. Then they look to selll.....and it unwinds from there

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The press is full of all these new towers that London is going to get, plus a garden bridge and weirdly a swimming pool in the Thames. Plus hysteria about HPI. Garages selling for half a million. Crash can't be far away I think.

Edited by aSecureTenant

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People finding that they can't get anyone else to buy their investment off them for a higher price. Then they look to selll.....and it unwinds from there

Shares or houses ?

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I just did a search and pulled up all the "black Monday" threads on HPC. There are an awful lot!

If someone's bored, they should do the same and mark them on a graph of the FTSE100.

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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/10/tech-stocks-drop-markets-worry-fed-stimulus

There has been a rash of imo barmy IPO's. Some eye watering earnings multiples. I don't follow the Guardian's analysis where there is no reason but I am not overly familar with how the dotcom bubble burst. It is not as if an investor wakes up one day and says hang on these companies don't actually generate much if any revenue and have few tangile assets. Ok a mass generalisation.

So who is exiting? 'Smart' money?

No one has to sell for prices to drop. You just need a lack of buyers.

Trading volumes have been falling for weeks.

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I just did a search and pulled up all the "black Monday" threads on HPC. There are an awful lot!

If someone's bored, they should do the same and mark them on a graph of the FTSE100.

My guess it they pretty much coincide with intermediate lows and will have been buy-the-dip opportunities.

Just like this one will likely turn out to be too.

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Covenant-lite debt looks very toppish again just like 2007, only there's more of it this time round. A record $230bn issued in 2013 according to the IMF.

Add that to the Taper and China's woes and you've got a pretty good bear case.

But then I've been trying to get short for nearly a year now with little success...

US-Covenant-lite-loans_second-lien-loans_2001-2013.png

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There's a lot of insider information around. For instance people in the financial sector (and cronies) familiar with how mortgage backed securities worked, the increasing amount of them and knew how they offloaded risk from lenders to allow them to lend more would be in a good position to know the direction of house prices and follow the trend at least until all the dodgy sub-prime lending came home.

The way the housing building sector shares declined from the beginning of 2007 a few months before the economic collapse happened just seemed to suggest a bit too much prior knowledge. The story is of course that one day, near the middle of 2007, the banks just suddenly thought that they couldn't trust each other and as a consequence things suddenly started to seize up - but I ask you :rolleyes:

Edited by billybong

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There's a lot of insider information around. For instance people in the financial sector (and cronies) familiar with how mortgage backed securities worked, the increasing amount of them and knew how they offloaded risk from lenders to allow them to lend more would be in a good position to know the direction of house prices and follow the trend at least until all the dodgy sub-prime lending came home.

The way the housing building sector shares declined from the beginning of 2007 a few months before the economic collapse happened just seemed to suggest a bit too much prior knowledge. The story is of course that one day, near the middle of 2007, the banks just suddenly thought that they couldn't trust each other and as a consequence things suddenly started to seize up - but I ask you :rolleyes:

A lot of the financial criminals knew it was coming. The entire thing was an inside job, after all. John Paulson knew, parts of Goldmans knew, parts of JP Morgan knew (they also knew about Madoff). Goldmans were making so much money off their CDS trades with AIG in late 2006 that they had to keep it on the quiet to avoid precipitating a crash.

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There's a lot of insider information around. For instance people in the financial sector (and cronies) familiar with how mortgage backed securities worked, the increasing amount of them and knew how they offloaded risk from lenders to allow them to lend more would be in a good position to know the direction of house prices and follow the trend at least until all the dodgy sub-prime lending came home.

The way the housing building sector shares declined from the beginning of 2007 a few months before the economic collapse happened just seemed to suggest a bit too much prior knowledge. The story is of course that one day, near the middle of 2007, the banks just suddenly thought that they couldn't trust each other and as a consequence things suddenly started to seize up - but I ask you :rolleyes:

or perhaps you could just look at the yield curve.

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