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Bear Goggles

Public Opinion Is Shifting

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This is significant IMO.

KPMG and Shelter (an unlikely duo) have collaborated to write this report: Public attitudes to the economy, cost of living and housing (It's a PDF)

It's quite long so here's some stats:

  • While over a third (38%) say they think an economic recovery is underway, just 1 in 10 (11%) agree that a recovery is taking place which they feel part of.
  • 69% said any recovery ‘won’t feel real’ until it genuinely gets easier for young people to own a home.
  • Of those concerned by the cost of living, 72% say the situation would be improved by lower housing costs (more affordable house prices, lower rents).

...and the biggie:

A clear majority of voters (60%) would prefer to see stable or falling house prices – not rising house price inflation. This includes a majority (56%) of homeowners.

This sentiment is shared as much (and in some cases more) among swing voter groups

At some point a mainstream political party is going to get this - I don't know which. It could have either a leftwing or a rightwing narrative.

Left: Control rents, tax landlords and restrict foreign investors, give tenants more rights, public housing building programme.

Right: Massively relax planning, massively cut housing benefit, get rid of subsidies to banks and HTB etc.

(And there are issues like immigration that are not really left or righ)t.

The report concludes by saying that the housing issue is big and it is "up for grabs". My guess is that the left are going to take this one on, but that's just my guess.

Edited by Bear Goggles

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One end game here is that we get this 'stability' at top of market.

So prices reach a historic multiple of local commute distance earnings - then stay there with socialised support for "hardworking families" - even though few hardworking families can afford more than a kennel right now.

It's entirely possible a house price collapse won't happen in this cycle.

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I don't think people always give honest answers in polls (people don't want to appear greedy and bad) and a lot depends on the question asked.

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One end game here is that we get this 'stability' at top of market.

So prices reach a historic multiple of local commute distance earnings - then stay there with socialised support for "hardworking families" - even though few hardworking families can afford more than a kennel right now.

It's entirely possible a house price collapse won't happen in this cycle.

I agree, and socialised support for the "haves" is what we currently have, the point is that this survey reveals that the majority of voters don't want that to continue, so the housing issue is "up for grabs" by any party that wants to take advantage of it.

It is only a matter of time IMO.

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I don't think people always give honest answers in polls (people don't want to appear greedy and bad) and a lot depends on the question asked.

Fair enough, but that's irrelevant to the housing issue isn't it?

If political parties take notice of polls and focus groups, which they do (and in fact have widely been criticised for doing too much), then this report is significant. It is probably going to be just one of many that report similar findings.

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One end game here is that we get this 'stability' at top of market.

So prices reach a historic multiple of local commute distance earnings - then stay there with socialised support for "hardworking families" - even though few hardworking families can afford more than a kennel right now.

It's entirely possible a house price collapse won't happen in this cycle.

ah...the fabled "soft landing".

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I don't think people always give honest answers in polls (people don't want to appear greedy and bad) and a lot depends on the question asked.

Me neither. giving the answer that is morally acceptable and showing faux concern for the kids.......meanwhile secretly pleased with what is going on and looking after number one.

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Me neither. giving the answer that is morally acceptable and showing faux concern for the kids.......meanwhile secretly pleased with what is going on and looking after number one.

Yes and there are more than enough parents who think that the best way to help their children is to build a nice little BTL portfolio for them and price out all the other children.

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Even the Daily Mail are spinning it differently this time around:

Bk14-SyIYAEn8T7.jpg

"Even middle-income families will be frozen out of a frenzied market that is increasingly the preserve of the rich"

Communists!

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Just vote UKIP to rock the boat. Last time I voted it was SNP, pre devolution, and they have certainly been standing up and shouting in the boat ever since. The established parties don`t like new parties biting into their pie, and the only credible protest out there is UKIP (Not voting has been my solution up to now, but that doesn`t translate into anything at the ballot box)

I don`t really care about the detail of their policies, the fact that Farage can give a straight answer on camera without going through a focus group session in his head first, and the clear policy to leave the EU are enough for me. Let`s face it, if the flood of unskilled workers is stopped, there will be a flood of basic BTL flats on to the market, and this can only be a good thing IMO.

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Even the Daily Mail are spinning it differently this time around:

Communists!

Doesn't sound very good for BTL yields!

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Me neither. giving the answer that is morally acceptable and showing faux concern for the kids.......meanwhile secretly pleased with what is going on and looking after number one.

So what are you saying? All polls are just BS, or just on this particular issue?

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ah...the fabled "soft landing".

Not so much as soft landing as scaffolding once prices reach some maximum multiple of earnings.

Look what the government(s) did with the banks in last crisis - and banks don't vote - homeowners do.

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Even the Daily Mail are spinning it differently this time around:

Bk14-SyIYAEn8T7.jpg

Communists!

Again faux concern..............the average home owning Daily Mail reader feels rather smug as the ladder gets drawn up behind them.

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Not so much as soft landing as scaffolding once prices reach some maximum multiple of earnings.

Look what the government(s) did with the banks in last crisis - and banks don't vote - homeowners do.

And the homeowners and "homeowners" are like a drunk (on credit) on a Saturday night climbing the scaffolding, they won`t be able to get back down again until they are sober and realise that dropping the price is their only escape.

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Just vote UKIP to rock the boat. Last time I voted it was SNP, pre devolution, and they have certainly been standing up and shouting in the boat ever since. The established parties don`t like new parties biting into their pie, and the only credible protest out there is UKIP (Not voting has been my solution up to now, but that doesn`t translate into anything at the ballot box)

I don`t really care about the detail of their policies, the fact that Farage can give a straight answer on camera without going through a focus group session in his head first, and the clear policy to leave the EU are enough for me. Let`s face it, if the flood of unskilled workers is stopped, there will be a flood of basic BTL flats on to the market, and this can only be a good thing IMO.

Immigration is the curve-ball when it comes to politics. Socially a rightwing issue (Protect our way of life), but economically a leftwing issue (Protect our workers/ access to resources).

UKIP have marked this issue out for the right via Euroskeptisim, fair enough.

UKIP are never going to have any answers to the housing issue, because they broadly represent the only voter bloc left in the UK who have done well out of HPI - the boomers.

Edited by Bear Goggles

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<shrug> Why not assume that most people have figured it out (it's taken long enough)?

It's not like the figures indicate a huge majority in favour of falling prices - 40% of home owners are still twits:

69% said any recovery ‘won’t feel real’ until it genuinely gets easier for young people to own a home.

A clear majority of voters (60%) would prefer to see stable or falling house prices – not rising house price inflation. This includes a majority (56%) of homeowners.

So that's 31% of home owners who still think HPI is a good thing, and 9% who seem to recognise the problem, but still want to hold onto their gains (or something?).

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UKIP are never going to have any answers to the housing issue, because they broadly represent the only voter bloc left in the UK who have done well out of HPI - the boomers.

And the boomers' kids?

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And the homeowners and "homeowners" are like a drunk (on credit) on a Saturday night climbing the scaffolding, they won`t be able to get back down again until they are sober and realise that dropping the price is their only escape.

There is no dropping the price there is only more government subsides. This should be crystal clear after 10 years+ of LabCon.

So either the politics change or the situation continues unabated. Your crazy market-driven solution talk is crazy (see above).

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They don't vote.

Smyth will be on shift at Tory HQ at 3 to tell us that only the children of the productive middle class should be able to vote. ;)

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Smyth will be on shift at Tory HQ at 3 to tell us that only the children of the productive middle class should be able to vote. ;)

You could, logically, make a far better argument that only those earning a below average wage should be allowed to vote...*

* the rich will vote to exclude the poor, but the poor will vote to improve their own situation but won't vote to pauperise themselves if they move up the pay-scale. In other words, the poor may vote more 'fairly' than the rich.

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