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RichM

This Site Has Got It Right

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In the past few days the general outlook has been more obviously bearish, but the previous month or two had apparently been quite bullish with house prices seeming to go back up. Though this apparent turn is probably attributable to the figures being skewed by only more expensive properties being sold (certainly the case in my neck of the woods), there was never enough data or evidence to convince me that the outlook had somehow been substantially altered; you would need many more months of data to be able to do that.

It is when you step back and look at the bigger picture that you realise how bang on target this site has been.

If you had said a year ago that Hometrack would be recording YoY falls of 2.5%, many bulls/vested interests would have laughed at you. The economy was too strong, unemployment was high, even IRs had gone up they were still very low IRs, etc etc.

But the fundamental problems were there - FTBers priced out, too much debt in the economy, inflation for various commodities, etc. Had you bought gold a year ago (I nearly did, but had too few savings!), you would have done quite well, as you would have done had you gone on the stockmarket.

This site has been getting things right, a year or more in advance. Not a few months, a year or more. Yes, we might not have seen huge drops, but things have been moving in our direction in a big way. Many commentators will only make predictions on the basis of what has happened over the past few months, rather than thinking about what is actually driving (or slowing) the economy. The repercussions of having low IRs and high debt levels have not been thought through.

What I am anticipating is a change in mood. None of the high-debt, low inflation, runaway house price economies (i.e. US, Australia, UK) have as yet seen full-on panic, or a proper change in mood. It may take some time. Perhaps we will see panic brought on by forced sellers, higher IRs, or bird flu, even falling prices themselves, who knows. But eventually the fundamental flaws of our economy will eventually be exposed.

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Nah.

You just need to carry on writing your witty letters to national newspapers, Rich.

You can sort this crash single-handedly.

:lol:

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Yes, we might not have seen huge drops

I don't know: 15-20% year-on-year growth down to pretty much zero is a huge drop in my opinion, even if you believe the VI figures.

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Nah.

You just need to carry on writing your witty letters to national newspapers, Rich.

You can sort this crash single-handedly.

:lol:

Yeah, actually you're right. I was just trying to throw the VIs off my scent. They've been getting close, the nuisance calls, turds through the letter box, etc etc. Of course, in reality I am toppling the establishment with my adroit prose.

I've been getting a good number of requests for it, so here it is, my letter in the Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jh...1/21/dt2101.xml

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this site and it's posters have reason to be pleased with themselves!!!!

we've all been predicting this for a while.....some of the bulls will say...yah for the last 5 years!!!

...but look at the other forums on investment too.had you put money into those too,you would have made a substantial return.

.....we should be proud to have such a high calibre of poster on this site........we have to get things in perspective......your average property punter is glued to the telly of an evening watching emmerdale,followed by property ladder,followed by coronation street,followed by bargain hunt.

.....I suspect the bookcase is full of things like david beckham's autobiography,and LLB's " do your shed a delicate shade of orange"

not quite in the same league as market cycle theoretics and technical analasys is it!!!

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.....I suspect the bookcase is full of things like david beckham's autobiography,and LLB's " do your shed a delicate shade of orange"

And what prey tell is wrong with delicate shades of orange? They fuelled massive increases in HPI over the past 5 years. Buy pit. Schematise. Back shed? hmmm. delicate orange. Lounge room? Buttery cream. Back yard. Paving stones and a scattering of ferns. Premium. 50K!

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I don't know: 15-20% year-on-year growth down to pretty much zero is a huge drop in my opinion, even if you believe the VI figures.

Thats a big drop to the people that make house prices

Remember, its only the people that buy or sell that move a market

That has still been a minority over the last five years

Most of the people I know that have bought or sold in that period have been at the very least influenced by the rises

Now those rises have gone

Millions of others may have benefited, bu they had nothing to do with this massive HPI

Likewise, they will not have much to do with any falls

House prices just need to stop rising and for that awareness to set in, for many of the market movers (buyers and sellers) to have a dramatic effect

As for BTL's 'in it for the long term' - give me a break - remove capital appreciation (house prices always go up, don't they) and who the f**k wants to be a landlord?

They say a crash is only a crash after the event, but this one is so obvious!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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