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Uk To Outperform Other Big Economies With 2.9% Growth, Imf Predicts

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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/08/uk-economy-growth-outperform-imf

Britain will be the best performing of the world's major economies this year with growth of 2.9%, according to the International Monetary Fund, as consumer spending rebounds, inflation remains low and unemployment continues to fall steadily.

But the Washington-based thinktank, which also acts as a lender of last resort to bankrupt countries, warned that the UK's recovery relied too heavily on easy credit, while business investment and exports remained weak.

In its world economic outlook, published ahead of its spring conference in Washington, the IMF said steady growth in the US and the recent sharp turnaround in the UK's fortunes would benefit the global economy.

However, the IMF's chief economist, Olivier Blanchard, warned that income inequality was hurting many countries and becoming an important factor undermining the prospect for sustainable global growth. In his foreword to the WEO, Blanchard said "as the effects of the financial crisis slowly diminish, another trend may come to dominate the scene, namely, increased income inequality".

Isn't the entire global economy reliant on easy credit?

Great to see the growth spurt is timed perfectly for an election...

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http://uk.reuters.com/article/2014/04/08/uk-britain-economy-niesr-idUKBREA3716620140408

Britain's economy looks to have grown at its fastest quarterly rate since early 2010 during the first three months of this year, a leading economic research body estimated on Tuesday.

The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) said Britain's economy probably grew by 0.9 percent in the first quarter of 2014, the fastest rate of growth for a calendar quarter since the second quarter of 2010.

NIESR's estimate follows an upgrade to Britain's economic outlook by the International Monetary Fund earlier on Tuesday and unexpectedly strong industrial output data.

It's like a good news spunk fest!

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Olivier Blanchard, another economics fudd (Ph.D) that's no good.

As Chief Economist of the IMF he published a paper in August 2009, exactly one year after the start of the GFC, claiming that the 'state of macroeconomic theory is good' despite the comprehensive failure of his profession to anticipate the biggest financial event in nearly seventy years.

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http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/08/uk-economy-growth-outperform-imf

Isn't the entire global economy reliant on easy credit?

Great to see the growth spurt is timed perfectly for an election...

Interesting that mainstream economists might finally be starting to get it that all this is linked to inequality. Give them another 6 years and they might make the leap to how inequality effects the relationship between consumption and investment. Then a further 6 years to understand that those relationship effects leads to malinvestment and bubbles.....hmm they might actually make the correct macroeconomic policy recommendations when i reach my 50's.....

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Olivier Blanchard, another economics fudd (Ph.D) that's no good.

As Chief Economist of the IMF he published a paper in August 2009, exactly one year after the start of the GFC, claiming that the 'state of macroeconomic theory is good' despite the comprehensive failure of his profession to anticipate the biggest financial event in nearly seventy years.

Perhaps he meant it was good for him personally- in what other profession could you be so wrong and still get paid? :lol:

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http://

www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-04-08/u-k-economy-size-may-be-revised-upward-on-eu-statistics-changes.html

U.K. Economy Size May Be Revised Upward on EU Statistics Changes

Every little helps then some more borrowing and QE etc and lo and behold the UK has Osborne claiming an economic miracle today. He did admit that there was still work to be done - maybe it's time they started then.

It must be a coincidence :unsure: that they chose a nice weather spring day to make the announcement - boosting the feel good factor. It's just a surprise that they didn't go the whole hog and announce a spring freebie privatisation like the old days.

This afternoon the lead bloke on the radio after helping to fill the airwaves about the Grossly Delusional Product concluded, with an air of relief as if the worst is now over, by saying "at least it's growth". :rolleyes:

Edited by billybong

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Interesting that mainstream economists might finally be starting to get it that all this is linked to inequality. Give them another 6 years and they might make the leap to how inequality effects the relationship between consumption and investment. Then a further 6 years to understand that those relationship effects leads to malinvestment and bubbles.....hmm they might actually make the correct macroeconomic policy recommendations when i reach my 50's.....

I wouldn't bank on it.

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http://

globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.co.uk/2014/04/imf-upbeat-on-us-and-global-growth.html

...

The IMF is perennially wrong and perennially overoptimistic.

...

....chief economist for Saxo Bank: "The IMF new economic forecast says the US is going to be the growth engine for 2014. It makes perfect sense, not!!! Citigroup's Surprise index (economic data relative to expected data is at new lows while policy makers see improvement. I guess ultimately it will turn due to mean reversion, but if this is superior growth, I need to go back to school."

There's an interesting chart of The Surprise Index - Economic data relative to Expected data showing it at new lows.

Edited by billybong

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I don't know what GDP measures, but whatever it is it doesn't seem to be good for the living standards of ordinary people. Between 1995 and 2007 UK GDP soared and the UK went from being a country where a single earner could keep a family in an average house to one where you need a dual income to live in a tiny box.

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How's that GDP doing per capita vs the rest and historically? Populations up but average earnings are down, whilst all the big cheeses are screaming for more inflation.

And the Tories are going to rewrite reality let alone history and tell everyone they've never had it so good, the cost of living crisis is over!

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I don't know what GDP measures, but whatever it is it doesn't seem to be good for the living standards of ordinary people. Between 1995 and 2007 UK GDP soared and the UK went from being a country where a single earner could keep a family in an average house to one where you need a dual income to live in a tiny box.

Unless, of course, you belong to the three quarters of the population that doesn't produce real income....four year university rite of passage, benefit lifers, public sector workers, the retired, the early retired, BTLers.....Somebody has got to pay for it...from their perspective packing in immigrants, getting the young bent over a barrel on debt and getting GDP into orbit is the only way to support the majority of the population.

Which is why politicians with their seven figure superannuated final salary packages and BTL empires will always support expansionary GDP policies via immigration and debt to keeping their ponzis alive. Most especially the left and the **** Balls.

Edited by crashmonitor

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The only amusing part of this fake GDP success based on immigration and debt is the grudging apology from the Gallic chearleaders at the IMF.

They appeared desperate for us to come last in the growth league. Lagarde and Blanchard had us down as failures in 2012.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Isn't the entire global economy reliant on easy credit?

Great to see the growth spurt is timed perfectly for an election...

+1

with the eu elections only a few short weeks away. For sure there's going to be plenty of hype and dodgy statistics still to come before then.

Edited by billybong

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There's an interesting chart of The Surprise Index - Economic data relative to Expected data showing it at new lows.

The real US jobs picture: 24 million more Americans than in 2008 and NO recovery.

M108020204205216455131595355271.gif

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Just for laughs - it doesn't come with a Mayan Calender guarantee.

http://

www.moneynews.com/MKTNewsIntl/Stock-market-recession-alert/2014/02/10/id/551985/?promo_code=166D4-1&utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=referral

Warning: Stocks Will Collapse by 50% in 2014

Tuesday, 08 Apr 2014 07:40 AM

It is only a matter of time before the stock market plunges by 50% or more, according to several reputable experts.

“We have no right to be surprised by a severe and imminent stock market crash,” explains Mark Spitznagel, a hedge fund manager who is notorious for his hugely profitable billion-dollar bet on the 2008 crisis. “In fact, we must absolutely expect it."

Unfortunately Spitznagel isn’t alone.

“We are in a gigantic financial asset bubble,” warns Swiss adviser and fund manager Marc Faber. “It could burst any day.”

Faber doesn’t hesitate to put the blame squarely on President Obama’s big government policies and the Federal Reserve’s risky low-rate policies, which, he says, “penalize the income earners, the savers who save, your parents — why should your parents be forced to speculate in stocks and in real estate and everything under the sun?”

Billion-dollar investor Warren Buffett is rumored to be preparing for a crash as well. The “Warren Buffett Indicator,” also known as the “Total-Market-Cap to GDP Ratio,” is breaching sell-alert status and a collapse may happen at any moment.

Yeah right but Warren can't print money and manipulate the GDP figures - but you never know :unsure:

http://

www.forbes.com/sites/robertlenzner/2014/02/22/the-stock-markets-valuation-is-at-a-dangerous-115-2-of-the-gdp/

2/22/2014

Buffett Wary If Ratio Market Value Of Stocks Greater Than 100% Of GDP

The nation’s preeminent investor, Berkshire Hathaway's Warren Buffett, has often said that probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment is the ratio of the total market capitalization to the total dollar value of the GDP. And any time that valuation stands at more than 100% of the total goods and services in the economy means it is time to be wary about common stocks. It’s a logical conclusion that the economic output of a country and the earnings of its companies, and so their valuation, should bear some relationship to the attraction of investing or not investing.

The ratio today is 115.1% of the $16 trillion GDP. In the year 2000, just before the market cracked in the dot-com bubble, the market capitalization was 183% times the GDP, according to a chart published recently.

...

...

As Buffett has said, “The ratio has certain limitations in telling you what you need to know. Still, it is probably the best single measure of where valuations stand at any given moment.

Edited by billybong

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Looking at those UK trade numbers with exports taking a beating I best like last time start planning before a recession hits. Though George seems determined to keep the plates spinning pulling rabbits out of the hat. It will be sad if peoples pensions also get wiped out.

The IMF have also warned about low inflation. I also heard on the radio a mention of a tech selloff. There are signs out there but who knows how long the plates can be kept up there :(

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