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Starcrossed

I Sense A Second Wind...

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We have had a couple of months where everything has been becalmed and maybe even a little bullish from the mainstream media and even nudging into my own mind. This is after definate house price falls earlier in the year.

But I sense the last couple of days that things may swing bearish again pretty soon. Gold, gas and IRs are bubbling under as subjects in the mainstream media and the annualised fall was reported by the press today rather than the flat monthly figure in the latest survey.

Of course, it is foolish in a way to isolate these 'micro-changes' in a long-term cycle like housing but would others agree that there is a second dip in sentiment coming?

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Of course, it is foolish in a way to isolate these 'micro-changes' in a long-term cycle like housing but would others agree that there is a second dip in sentiment coming?

most definately

Edited by crash 2005

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..... would others agree that there is a second dip in sentiment coming?

I totally agree. We've had three months of positive media reporting but they were really reviewing the statistics from early to mid summer sales. The next five months will be reflecting on the Autumn/Winter period. I can't forsee much positive information (unless they fiddle the stats <_<).

Once a major player breaks rank (eg Nationwide) it could open the way for a more accurate reflection of the current selling/buying climate.

If I was a major VI, I wouldn't want to be the last one to jump on the downward bandwagon. That would destroy credibility. All downhill from here.

Xil.

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would others agree that there is a second dip in sentiment coming?

Does feel more bearish this week. I want prices to fall (despite being labelled a bull), and hope 'Mr Average' does'nt cancel the crash through his love for property over all other assets. My youngest brother is fed - up renting so a crash wil be a massive and perhaps even vital event for him and his wife once thier Bankcruptcy is a little more distant.

A crash would also give me confidence to re - invest in UK residential market.

Again I am still hearing a lot more bullishness from my E/A contacts than I have for some time.

A sudden economic jolt would be welcome, but I can't see one just now.

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Does feel more bearish this week. I want prices to fall (despite being labelled a bull), and hope 'Mr Average' does'nt cancel the crash through his love for property over all other assets. My youngest brother is fed - up renting so a crash wil be a massive and perhaps even vital event for him and his wife once thier Bankcruptcy is a little more distant.

A crash would also give me confidence to re - invest in UK residential market.

Again I am still hearing a lot more bullishness from my E/A contacts than I have for some time.

A sudden economic jolt would be welcome, but I can't see one just now.

I'm thinking that the economic jolt could be a rise in interest rates.

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I'm thinking that the economic jolt could be a rise in interest rates.

Can't see it in the run-up to Christmas, but hopefully they won't have any choice in the spring.

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Realistically, I think its quite likely us bears will be in limbo for a while now. The market is always quiet over Christmas. I think by about March/April things well be clearer.

* How will Xmas treat the retailers?

* Will there be a move in IRs?

* Beginnings of a Spring Bounce or market set for a flat year?

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Guest Charlie The Tramp

Sure, not before Christmas, I'm thinking too it will be next year.

The last time they increased rates in January by .25% was 2000 , and in December by .25% was 1994.

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The last time they increased rates in January by .25% was 2000 , and in December by .25% was 1994.

Thanks CTC

I would be interested in checking out the change interest rates from the past. Do you know where I could get this information?

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IMHO the upturn in sentiment this autumn was caused largely by expectations of a SIPPS boost to the property market next April.

The recent bearish sentiment has grown as those expectations have started to recede.

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IMHO the upturn in sentiment this autumn was caused largely by expectations of a SIPPS boost to the property market next April.

The recent bearish sentiment has grown as those expectations have started to recede.

My feelings exactly!

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It never gets any clearer, only cloudy.

The last couple of months have indeed been relatively bullish. Ironically this has happened just as I have started to see some real falls in my area, and have seen non market watching friends and acquaintances display bearish sentiment towards the housing market for the first time.

We're also seeing bullishness in gold, and maybe even interest rates. Neither of those bode well for the housing bubble.

Crash cancelled?

I wouldn't bet my house on it!

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  • 301 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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