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Oliver Sutton

Halifax -1.1%

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Can't actually see where is says -1.1%, the think you linked too just says prices climbed 2.1% in the last 3 months!!!

Here's a better link.

My link

  • House prices fell by -1.1% in March. This was only the third monthly decline in the past fifteen months; this is in contrast to the previous fifteen months when there were eight monthly price falls. The monthly movements, however, can be volatile and the three month-on-three month change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend.

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I predicted exactly this a couple of days ago on the Nationwide thread.

Last month, Halifax was up a whopping 2.4% MoM, so a corrective swing of around 1% was clearly on the cards to smooth out a statistical blip. So, roughly speaking, they have prices going up around 0.6% to 0.7% a month - which has been the case since last summer.

As much as I'd like this to be a bubble popping, I'm afraid it's just background noise. Nothing to see here folks...

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Can't actually see where is says -1.1%, the think you linked too just says prices climbed 2.1% in the last 3 months!!!

Yep a fall from 583.1 to 576.9 on the monthly seasonally adjusted figure...the one that they use .

So back to my hobby horse, the 3 month moving average is total mathematical crap...nobody else use it but Halifax. The annual actual goes up to 8.7% from 7.9%. It's a smoothing spin that brings into play figures from 14 months ago, meanwhile recent figures such as this fall are not given a full weighting.

Again backs up my commentary that HTB2 has run out of steam and the market is back in trouble.

Edited by crashmonitor

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Yep a fall from 583.1 to 576.9 on the monthly seasonally adjusted figure...the one that they use .

So back to my hobby horse, the 3 month moving average is total mathematical crap...nobody else use it but Halifax. The annual actual goes up to 8.7% from 7.9%. It's a smoothing spin that brings into play figures from 14 months ago, meanwhile recent figures such as this fall are not given a full weighting.

Again backs up my commentary that HTB2 has run out of steam and the market is back in trouble.

If so, time for TPTB to double down again. At the very least they have to keep the ball rolling until the next election and then hope that they can arrange some sort of soft landing afterward (soft landings of course never happen).

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If so, time for TPTB to double down again. At the very least they have to keep the ball rolling until the next election and then hope that they can arrange some sort of soft landing afterward (soft landings of course never happen).

They already did with the pension changes.

I think it's fairly obvious that the market would slow this year as demand was pulled forward by people front-running help-to-buy and getting in before the affordability changes this month.

Good news for buyers as stock is now coming on and new buyers are diminishing so there will be more stock to choose from - whether or no that translated into rises or falls, who knows.

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As much as I'd like this to be a bubble popping, I'm afraid it's just background noise. Nothing to see here folks...

This is the truth of it I'm afraid.

The Halifax stat is pretty meaningless. Too noisy to draw any inference from.

The Land reg figure is the only one worth bothering with. since it doesn't come with a publication-ready press release our cut-and-paste friends in the world of journalism scarcely give it a mention....

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Unless it's going up and the media all decide to put it on the front page.

See the front cover of the Independent and i today (as well as the Daily Mail and The Times earlier in the week). Media coverage of hpi is not all bad news these days!

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Yep a fall from 583.1 to 576.9 on the monthly seasonally adjusted figure...the one that they use .

So back to my hobby horse, the 3 month moving average is total mathematical crap...nobody else use it but Halifax. The annual actual goes up to 8.7% from 7.9%. It's a smoothing spin that brings into play figures from 14 months ago, meanwhile recent figures such as this fall are not given a full weighting.

Again backs up my commentary that HTB2 has run out of steam and the market is back in trouble.

Agreed, the smoothing algorithms these guys use is complete BS. On the face of it this looks like confirmation that the credit impulse from HtB2 is waning fast. I'd need to see it reflected in weaker quarterly GDP prints before believing it entirely, but potentially good news.

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I care, because I want to see those behind HTB, and all the self centred attempts to stay in power, burn in Hell. I want to see those smug people that grossly over paid, regret it daily. I want to see BTL landlords and Estate Agents homeless. I want a long and painful death for those in Financial Services, that made the basic needs require two incomes to be met. These wants are not unreasonable.

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Do they mean accelerate downwards?

That's a very good point :D

I actually was annoyed enough about this to file my first ever complaint to the BBC. If they come back and say that the headline didn't state which[/i/] direction they were accelerating in, I tip my hat in advance to you ;)

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The Wail, thoroughly dishonest as ever, reduces the inconvenient truth to a bullet point.

Average UK house price surges by £14k in a year - the biggest increase since October 2007, says Halifax

  • Average house price has risen from £164k in March 2013 to £178k today
  • House prices fell by 1.1% in March compared to previous month
  • Total house sales rose for the tenth successive month

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