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norseraider

Panic Buying Is Real

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I was talking to a long-term friend at the weekend, who is buying a place in London.

He basically admitted that he was panicking, and that he and the gf could not stand the fear of being 'left behind' by the property market.

So, the panic sentiment is definitely out there (when people are honest) ... can someone plot this on a bubble-anatomy graph? :D

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I was talking to a long-term friend at the weekend, who is buying a place in London.

He basically admitted that he was panicking, and that he and the gf could not stand the fear of being 'left behind' by the property market.

So, the panic sentiment is definitely out there (when people are honest) ... can someone plot this on a bubble-anatomy graph? :D

I don't think that's what they mean by "fear" in the lifecycle. We're still in the Media Attention Phase as far as I can see. I'd say we've got another 2 years to go as the government props it all up with "our" money (and debts). Our current account is in deficit our rebalancing is no where. The only reason the economy is growing is because of the housing market and its lending. No job creation except Mcdonalds and part timers. High youth unemployment. The scene is set for a summer of discontent.

bubble-lifecycle.gif

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I don't think that's what they mean by "fear" in the lifecycle. We're still in the Media Attention Phase as far as I can see. I'd say we've got another 2 years to go as the government props it all up with "our" money (and debts). Our current account is in deficit our rebalancing is no where. The only reason the economy is growing is because of the housing market and its lending. No job creation except Mcdonalds and part timers. High youth unemployment. The scene is set for a summer of discontent.

bubble-lifecycle.gif

Don't you think we already had a Media Attention Phase during the 2000's. Not to mention the Enthusiasm and Greed phases! I would say this bubble has a different shape to it and we are in the back to normal phase.

Edited by renting til I die

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I don't think that's what they mean by "fear" in the lifecycle. We're still in the Media Attention Phase as far as I can see. I'd say we've got another 2 years to go as the government props it all up with "our" money (and debts). Our current account is in deficit our rebalancing is no where. The only reason the economy is growing is because of the housing market and its lending. No job creation except Mcdonalds and part timers. High youth unemployment. The scene is set for a summer of discontent.

bubble-lifecycle.gif

It was widely reported that most jobs were created in the property industry.

That bubble chart does not work well for housing!

Housing is not an optional market where you can chose to have or not have housing - you must live somewhere. People to panic as they fear that they will not be able to afford a roof over their head and will be left out on the street.

The bubble chart does not allow for the government interference lengthening the cycle.

I am sure that with some thought the graph could be updated and various government interventions added to it, but the problem is that you cannot predict the future - only guess at it.

My guess is that the current cycle ends in hyperinflation as the west prints and prints and prints in an attempt to save the system from collapsing a an undefined date in the future.

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When was that chart first shown on here? I think the mania phase(16 years) started around 1998 and is still going. The awareness phase (5 years) was from 1992 - 1997.

It needs re-plotting.

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When was that chart first shown on here? I think the mania phase(16 years) started around 1998 and is still going. The awareness phase (5 years) was from 1992 - 1997.

It needs re-plotting.

I don't think we need to worry about the graph. It is helpful in learning about bubbles but not all bubbles play out the same.

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My guess is that the current cycle ends in hyperinflation as the west prints and prints and prints in an attempt to save the system from collapsing a an undefined date in the future.

I was thinking the same a couple of years ago. Now, I'm just not sure how it will play out. Very hard to work out what assets are worth buying as cash will be useless if it does end in some kind of worldwide hyperinflation!

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I was thinking the same a couple of years ago. Now, I'm just not sure how it will play out. Very hard to work out what assets are worth buying as cash will be useless if it does end in some kind of worldwide hyperinflation!

Watch the bankers and politicians as they will win out of it. They have the power to rig the system in their favour.

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Watch the bankers and politicians as they will win out of it. They have the power to rig the system in their favour.

Aren't most of them buying property! Hang on, I don't think Carney has got in on the act yet.... :P

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