Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Sign in to follow this  
Splurge

Sold Prices/ Asking Prices

Recommended Posts

In an idle moment I compared asking prices with neighbourhood sold prices in a few areas. There is a staggering discrepancy. Take Walthamstow where 700k seems to be the new normal, but where the comparatives seem to suggest somewhere south of 400k not so many months/years. Here's an example with nothing over 375k nearby.

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-42734584.html.

Really can't believe what I am seeing. You'd need quite a bit more on top to turn what looks like a rental into a decent home. But it just :unsure:aint here you can do this with property all over town. There has been an obscene hike in asking prices.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Really can't believe what I am seeing.

You're not the only one....it can't last, it's insane. It's like some blokes just printed money and is going round buying property to convert hgis dodgy cash into something else...money laundering of sorts....but of course, that's not happening rolleyes.gif

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

That one actually DOES look like money laundering. The photos are blurred, the house is a mess, it looks £300k, tops.

Mind you, it is apparently real.

E.g.,

2006 peak £350k, 2013 listed at £650k, sold for £35k over asking to some moron:

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-43787903.html

2008 £200k, 2013 sold £426k

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=40301911&sale=50536097&country=england

2006 £214k, 2013 £429k

http://www.rightmove.co.uk/house-prices/detailMatching.html?prop=44803847&sale=50535869&country=england

Walthamstow is a sh*thole in the Brixton mould, but central enough I suppose. Nowadays everyone is desperate to live in Peckham and Hackney, so it's got to be worth a million to live in East 17 I guess.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Asking prices in Walthamstow/Leytonstone/etc have really went crazy over the last 6 months or so. Because its such a sharp rise over a short period, its possible that land registry just hasnt updated yet since it takes so long from agreeing a price to completion. There has been a very large increase in the sold prices trickling through over the last couple of months, so its not implausible that houses are actually going for the new asking prices and they just havent hit LR yet (at least that's what I've heard estate agents claim).

This is actual average Land Registry sold prices for Waltham Forest, July 2014 is when the madness seems to have started and prices have been going up a solid £5-6k/month since then, which has resulted in an 18% increase over just a 9 month period. So if you factor in that the land registry is probably about 3-6 months out of date, sales at around the current asking prices arent too unbelievable:

January 2011: £240k

...

June 2011: £240k

June 2012: £255k

...

January 2013: £252k

...

June 2013: £259k

July 2013: £264k

August 2013: £272k

September 2013: £278k

October 2013: £284k

Novermber 2014: £288k

December 2013: £294k

January 2014: £300k

February 2014: £306k

Edited by Smyth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Walthamstow is a sh*thole in the Brixton mould, but central enough I suppose. Nowadays everyone is desperate to live in Peckham and Hackney, so it's got to be worth a million to live in East 17 I guess.

That part of Walthamstow (the 'village area' around Orford Road) is actually pretty nice - very green, almost entirely middle-class families, apparently decent schools. Its certainly well above the rest of Walthamstow. I was thinking about buying a place in Higham Hill last year since it was relatively cheap and felt safe walking around, but there is almost nothing to do in the area, and the prices seem to have been dragged up due to association with the much nicer 'village' part. You could have got a 3 bed Victorian terrace in Higham Hill for £280-320K back in August, but no chance of that now, asking prices seem to have went up to around the £350-400k mark. You can stick an extra 50-100% on that for anywhere near Orford Road.

Brixton is very different, its more of a young person's area (and has changed a huge amount over the last 10-15 years).

Edited by Smyth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

There has been an obscene hike in asking prices.

I'd be happy to acknowledge it as "wishful thinking" (but would then like to hear the actual counter-arguments to the theory) but the impression I get round where I live in Central East London, is that investors truly are desperate. It's somewhat of a case of "take all the profits while you can and run off before it all collapses!".

As much as some EAs are out there trying to talk up the market: not that long ago, for example an EA tried to convince me that I should buy a flat for 500k (when a couple of weeks earlier an almost identical flat had sold for under 400k) because in 2 years time, it would be worth well over 700k (nevermind the economic fundamentals to backup such a statement), an EA informed me that she was advising a lot of her investors in the Far East to sell as now was the time.

In the short-term, this may result in an increase in sold prices: young buyers who are desperate may think that they have no choice and must pay up now or else but then once those "desperate" buyers are through.

A "healthy" market is one that is liquid and where a buyer can expect to find a future buyer in the not-too-distant future. However once there's the realisation that there is noone out there to keep the market going, it will all fall like a deck of cards. Just like prices may be overvalued relative to their instrinsic value, when there is a panic the complete opposite can happen with prices dropping below what would be "logical" based on demand/supply. Prices will have been so overinflated that people will panic about how wrong the valuation has been and will be desperate to sell ahead of further panic.

These desperate sellers are just the early trickle..

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People selling houses in Walthamstow/etc arent Far East investors wanting to cash in their investments, this isnt E1. Even there I doubt that the market is about to crash, that sounds like wishful thinking; what does it even mean to talk about investors being 'desperate' when typical properties sell within a month of being marketed (and go for near asking price), while most forecasters predict an overall price rise in 2014.

Edited by Smyth

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

People selling houses in Walthamstow/etc arent Far East investors wanting to cash in their investments, this isnt E1. Even there I doubt that the market is about to crash, that sounds like wishful thinking; what does it even mean to talk about investors being 'desperate' when typical properties sell within a month of being marketed (and go for near asking price), while most forecasters predict an overall price rise in 2014.

I agree. The momentum in the market at the moment is too much to expect a crash anytime soon, unless the BoE suddenly decides to put interest rates up to 5%!

I had another conversation on the weekend with a friend who bought a house last year to renovate in a less than salubrious London area. 10 months later it is back on the market with an asking price of 60% higher (AFTER costs) than she bought it for.

She is only selling it at all so she can buy another one in the hope the same will happen again this year. In reality, she'd be better off sticking with the current one because it is the market that is adding the value at the moment, not the renovation.

She has made 3 times her (good) annual salary doing this, probably more like 5 times her take home because no tax will have to be paid.

There are a lot of people with enough money or debt or both to do this and a lot of them seem to EXPECT this type of increase to be normal going forward. No one seems to think that house prices going up 5% A MONTH in some areas of London is in any way unsustainable and the government are doing little to change their minds.

I still think there has to be a correction at some point. The profit made on London property changing hands already exceeds the GDP of New Zealand, so soon there won't be enough money in the world to fund the increases!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Its a difficult one. EA's that I have spoken to suggest that in London 50% of offers fall through at some point, couple that with a limited supply on the market, just how easy is it to determine the true values of properties when there is so little hard data (i.e. completions) to go on?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday I saw on zoopla a 2 bed maisonette in SW17 - in the Colliers Wood end of Tooting, 54 sq m, last sold May 2011 for £206k, up for sale for £430K.

I dare say quite a lot has been spent on it since it is very nicely done and £206k would have been ' cheap' even then, so it was probably in a pretty dire state. But it's still the most staggering hike I've seen in an area rife with staggering hikes

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I suppose a 2 bed maisonette in say finchley would cost about that much now whereas the prices in previous years would be quite a bit higher in finchley than tooting. I use finchley as a contrasting example as it is similarly located to tooting in that theyre both on the northern line a similar distance to the centre. So maybe the south has catching up to do and we are seeing that happen now.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Yesterday I saw on zoopla a 2 bed maisonette in SW17 - in the Colliers Wood end of Tooting...

it'll be that new fried chicken shop on the high street <_<

Edited by the flying pig

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

it'll be that new fried chicken shop on the high street <_<

Haha, the new Shoreditch right? Joking aside, prices in SW17 are ludicrous to the point that people are running away.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   289 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.