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zugzwang

Uk 2013 Gdp Growth Revised Down To 1.7%

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Osborne's bailing out the entire world. :lol:

http://uk.reuters.co...EA2R0H520140328

(Reuters) - Britain's current account deficit was much bigger than expected in the fourth quarter, another warning sign about the sustainability of the country's economic recovery, official data showed on Friday.

The deficit in the October-December period was 22.4 billion pounds, down slightly from an all-time record 22.8 billion pounds in the third quarter.

Economists had expected a deficit of 14 billion pounds.

The Office for National Statistics said the deficit was being driven in part by a fall in income from investments earned abroad - which were lessened by the strengthening of sterling - as well as Britain's trade deficit.

The ONS confirmed that Britain's economy grew 0.7 percent in the October-December period of last year compared with the previous quarter and was 2.7 percent bigger than in the fourth quarter of 2012.

Economists had expected no change to the ONS' previous estimates on Britain's economic growth.

Full-year gross domestic product in 2013 was revised down to 1.7 percent from a previous estimate of 1.8 percent.

current-account_2865473c.jpg

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Osborne's bailing out the entire world. :lol:

These revisions to growth are too small. If you understate inflation, you understate the GDP Deflator and growth appears to be greater than it actually is.

But don't worry about the current account deficit - the Chinese will carry on lending us money to buy their goods. :lol:

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Osborne's bailing out the entire world. :lol:

I see we have two measures of GDP in play 1.7% and 2.7%. The 2.7% is the actual growth recorded between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013. The other is a smoothed whole year (2013) on 2012 comparison

The official figures use the smoothed data, but it doesn't make sense to me. If we now plunge into a recession GDP would continue to move higher on the official figures because of this lagging method of calculation.

One reason I went for 3.5% growth in 2014, some of that was already banked and we were going to get a good 2014 stat come what may.

Edited by crashmonitor

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It's all OK, the rising house prices will soon increase the GDP figure as imputed rent increases and if George continues not to worry too much about the deficit reduction and carries on spending this will also boost GDP which means we are all richer as GDP increases ... something seems amiss but I can't put my finger on it.

Interesting point - house price rises will make a massive contribution to the GDP figure, but they are not included in the CPI or the RPI. Housing costs are included in the latter, but that means mortgage payments, not actual prices.

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ECB talking down the EURO now UK talking down sterling ?

I think we may be heading for another round of battles in the currency wars ...

Last one to the bottom loses!

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I think we may be heading for another round of battles in the currency wars ...

Last one to the bottom loses!

Well, with the innovation in Graphene-based paper we should be able to run the printers at least 10 times faster! Hoorah!

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BBC says:

"Economists had expected the UK's deficit to narrow to about £14bn in the final three months of the year."

Just more than 50% out then. Nice performance economist people, trebles all round.

Not to worry though, London property up 14% yey! Good job none of this is important or we'd be in deep do-do.

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I see we have two measures of GDP in play 1.7% and 2.7%. The 2.7% is the actual growth recorded between Q4 2012 and Q4 2013. The other is a smoothed whole year (2013) on 2012 comparison

The official figures use the smoothed data, but it doesn't make sense to me. If we now plunge into a recession GDP would continue to move higher on the official figures because of this lagging method of calculation.

One reason I went for 3.5% growth in 2014, some of that was already banked and we were going to get a good 2014 stat come what may.

Smoothing makes things look a wee bit better on the way down and a wee bit worse on the way up. Over the entire credit cycle there shouldn't be any difference, of course.

I still think growth this year will be modest, <2.0%, as I expect the credit impulse from HtB to wear off quickly. On the other hand, savings rates are down again and Osborne's bubble madness is sucking in foriegn capital like an industrial vaccum. And then there's the election. Osborne's clearly going to move mountains in an effort to avoid an interest rate hike before April 2015. Your 3.5% call might even be on the low side.

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