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Bank Raises Alarm Over New House Price Bubble

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Any cash Osborne can extract from the pensions industry will come at the cost of profits and jobs in insurance and banking. That money ordinarily would have been lent out and leveraged in margin accounts so that's even more growth lost from the broader economy in addition to the fees involved. The bond market is likely to reflect on the diminishing pensions aggregate by pushing up yields and making borrowing more expensive acroos the board. There's no free lunch.

I was thinking the same and how it would play out. It is going to be a very short term gain. I was thinking what it would do to inflation/deflation and I see the latter continuing for all non essentials, and for house prices because, after all, you can rent.

Edited by LiveinHope

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Guest spp

I'm not seeing where the fall is going to come from now..............

...........It's basically down to whether a blackswan event happens and the last blackswan got bailed out.

Good post slacker.

Serfdom is here to stay...how much can you pay a month!!?

edit - We have socialism on steroids and a combination of 'free' deposits/cheap credit DEBT creating a bid. Throw in population growth...

The only thing that will change things are a serious reversal in interest rates, some bond market blow-out or War.

Edited by spp

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Last time you were a WUM. Now you're just a prat.

There's 11 million mortgages and £1.3 trillion of mortgage debt.

ONS in 2013 said less than 2 in 5 houses had property debt. I've seen some daft numbers I can't find now on how much London is a cash market in last 2 years.

Last week there was stats kicking around that 96% of new mortgages are fixed rate.

The only people to get hurt by an IR rise are the few poor bstards who've given up waiting and blown 10 years savings on a 95% at rates Tony Soprano could probably better.

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ONS in 2013 said less than 2 in 5 houses had property debt.

I was only commenting on your repeated insistence that these days there are very few mortgages outstanding.

You're probably right that only about 2 in 5 homes are mortgaged. But there's 30 million homes in the UK. So that's a lot of mortgages. And a lot of mortgage debt (£1.3 trillion)

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ONS in 2013 said less than 2 in 5 houses had property debt. I've seen some daft numbers I can't find now on how much London is a cash market in last 2 years.

Last week there was stats kicking around that 96% of new mortgages are fixed rate.

The only people to get hurt by an IR rise are the few poor bstards who've given up waiting and blown 10 years savings on a 95% at rates Tony Soprano could probably better.

And three in five are relying on a pay out from property to fund their retirement/MEW/care/World travel/Children`s education and deposit/downsizing etc. etc.

It is a Ponzi scheme, and it is very nearly out of steam.

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ONS in 2013 said less than 2 in 5 houses had property debt. I've seen some daft numbers I can't find now on how much London is a cash market in last 2 years.

Last week there was stats kicking around that 96% of new mortgages are fixed rate.

The only people to get hurt by an IR rise are the few poor bstards who've given up waiting and blown 10 years savings on a 95% at rates Tony Soprano could probably better.

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Did anyone seriously think that we would be seeing articles on 'how to profit from the House price boom' so soon again? It's surreal.

Maybe this time it really has gone too far too fast- even the invertebrates at the BoE are growing restless and making gurgling noises about bubbles.

with China about to crack and Russian money feeling increasingly exposed in London maybe now not is the best time for Osborne to inflate housing bubble 2.0.

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ONS in 2013 said less than 2 in 5 houses had property debt. I've seen some daft numbers I can't find now on how much London is a cash market in last 2 years.

Last week there was stats kicking around that 96% of new mortgages are fixed rate.

The only people to get hurt by an IR rise are the few poor bstards who've given up waiting and blown 10 years savings on a 95% at rates Tony Soprano could probably better.

It's possible to over analyse the situation.

Take a step back and ask yourself, "can an economy be supported by people selling each other houses for ever increasing amounts of money"? If you think the answer is yes then buy as many houses as you can borrow the money for. If you think the answer is no then sit back and wait for prices to come to you.

Common sense rules!

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It's possible to over analyse the situation.

Take a step back and ask yourself, "can an economy be supported by people selling each other houses for ever increasing amounts of money"? If you think the answer is yes then buy as many houses as you can borrow the money for. If you think the answer is no then sit back and wait for prices to come to you.

Common sense rules!

And here endeth the lesson!

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It's possible to over analyse the situation.

Take a step back and ask yourself, "can an economy be supported by people selling each other houses for ever increasing amounts of money"? If you think the answer is yes then buy as many houses as you can borrow the money for. If you think the answer is no then sit back and wait for prices to come to you.

Common sense rules!

But doesn't it come down to who controls the money supply? At the end of the day they are hell bent on 'growth'!

They can now claim that to ever pull HTB would be bad for hard working families, jobs, growth etc. Prices will rise until a new DEBT plateau is found. Then the taps will be opened again...onto the next level.

Only an outside factor is going to stop this juggernaut...

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It's possible to over analyse the situation.

Take a step back and ask yourself, "can an economy be supported by people selling each other houses for ever increasing amounts of money"? If you think the answer is yes then buy as many houses as you can borrow the money for. If you think the answer is no then sit back and wait for prices to come to you.

Common sense rules!

I just worry about how badly TPTB will smash the system to hold onto power.

If we allowed a return to the rules of the market, we would now get a humongous crash. For those that remain wealthy/productive the upside would be very rewarding.

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As much as I want the bubble to burst, I can't help worry that when it does, my STR deposit fund will be raided as part of a 'bank-bail-in' :unsure:

Buy an over-valued house then.

For me it's no retreat, no surrender. Principles and honour.

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As much as I want the bubble to burst, I can't help worry that when it does, my STR deposit fund will be raided as part of a 'bank-bail-in' :unsure:

To be honest I can't see any other option for what will happen if the banks go under. There will be no second bailout and the losses they will face under a house price crash are going to be pretty catastrophic.

There's a sound reason as to why people try and get their money out if/when they think a bank is going to go under. Someone has to pay and the reason banks go under is because the debtor can't pay so really there is only one other group who can pay - the saver.

Edited by alexw

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As much as I want the bubble to burst, I can't help worry that when it does, my STR deposit fund will be raided as part of a 'bank-bail-in' :unsure:

Spread it around, put some in premium bonds and other NS+I accounts? If they do bails in`s for the little guy in the UK the banking system will collapse overnight IMO.

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Spread it around, put some in premium bonds and other NS+I accounts? If they do bails in`s for the little guy in the UK the banking system will collapse overnight IMO.

Before Cyprus I would have agreed with that but now I'm not so sure. Every time I hear the FSCS radio adds telling me my money is safe it feels about as reassuring as the person sitting next to me on the bus randomly turning to me and saying 'I'm not going to stab you !'

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Spread it around, put some in premium bonds and other NS+I accounts? If they do bails in`s for the little guy in the UK the banking system will collapse overnight IMO.

Why is why we'll end up with inflation. The one thing they can always do is print more and make sure everybody gets paid back nominal. Look at the wretched Japanese.

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As much as I want the bubble to burst, I can't help worry that when it does, my STR deposit fund will be raided as part of a 'bank-bail-in' :unsure:

It is a worry. I find it hard to believe that they will let savers realise the full value of their savings without a fight, although whether it's a bail-in, inflation, or some other device, it's hard to say. Still, I'm sure if you ask, they will assure you that there's absolutely no possibility of any of that...

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It is a worry. I find it hard to believe that they will let savers realise the full value of their savings without a fight, although whether it's a bail-in, inflation, or some other device, it's hard to say. Still, I'm sure if you ask, they will assure you that there's absolutely no possibility of any of that...

There will be savers ...and then there will be 'savers'. The former will be those whose 'whole fault the crash will be', for not having joined in the binge but 'hoarding' for a rainy day, the latter, well we know who those will be

or, do I just feel picked upon :(

Edited by LiveinHope

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the London/SE bubble is already beginning to smack of 'panic buying' - especially in the sub 500K market (can't believe the prices in this end of the market) where the sentiment seems to me - must buy now or I will miss out

the thing is - this ripples out from the 'favoured south' and pushes prices up in regions that were settling down nicely - Dorset, Devon, Somerset, The cotswolds) - the money some of the buyers have because of the bubble in SE is finding it's way into hitherto 'sane(ish) areas'.

Looking in North Devon - my destination of choice and I see houses coming on at insane prices although many existing houses have been on for more than 6 months and not selling. It is down to sentiment at the end of the day

if having a BTL 'portfolio' was not such an ego trip and made less profitable and FTBs stopped rushing in for fear of losing out

if rents would be a bit more reasonable

if rich Londoners would stop with the second home 'in the country' frenzy.

and of course if IRs would edge up a bit to send a warning shot across the bows of the borrowers.

:huh:

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  • 396 Brexit, House prices and Summer 2020

    1. 1. Including the effects Brexit, where do you think average UK house prices will be relative to now in June 2020?


      • down 5% +
      • down 2.5%
      • Even
      • up 2.5%
      • up 5%



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