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okaycuckoo

Sanctions On Putin

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I've read Putin's fortune is estimated at $70b, but that's just rich list chatter.

The serious point is about the tangled web of free movement of capital and the relative exposure of western banks to Russian defaults:

Quick things to note:
  • France looks mighty exposed, with $51bn potentially at risk. But that’s in absolute terms; it’s still only 0.5 per cent of total French bank assets. Instead, look at Austria, where the $17bn at risk represents 1.4 per cent of its total bank assets.
  • Germany and Spain stand out as having very little exposure, at least on the bank loan front.
  • yet the picture changes markedly when “other exposure” (derivatives, guarantees and trade credit) is taken into account. Suddenly the US — and, to a lesser extent, the UK — is most exposed.
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/03/20/1805702/if-this-tit-for-tatting-escalates/?
But it also speaks to a much broader issue with investing in Russia. Since Mr Putin became president in 2000, around $350bn of private-sector capital has flowed out of the country, according to Morgan Stanley — into Belgravia property, Cypriot brass-plates, what have you. The sloshing around of this wealth has been seen as a weakness of the west (see: oligarchs, valets).

Even so, it also means foreign investors should have been aware they were putting money into relatively hollowed-out Russian bond and equity markets. The locals’ assets weren’t sticking around much.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/03/17/1801232/in-putins-russia-risk-prices-you/

Update – More from the US Treasury
Gennady Timchenko is one of the founders of Gunvor, one of the world’s largest independent commodity trading companies involved in the oil and energy markets. Timchenko’s activities in the energy sector have been directly linked to Putin.
Putin has investments in Gunvor and may have access to Gunvor funds.

Update II — Timchenko has reacted in double-quick time taken pre-emptive action…

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/2014/03/20/1805632/timchenko-gennady-geneva-switzerland/

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The West has completely lost the plot. Laughable sanctions and completely out of order.

Russia will respond and on we go.

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The West has completely lost the plot. Laughable sanctions and completely out of order.

Russia will respond and on we go.

I think Putin will respond, until Russia can't take it anymore.

Small man syndrome: 5' 5" and walks with a swagger.

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I think Putin will respond, until Russia can't take it anymore.

Small man syndrome: 5' 5" and walks with a swagger.

Been reading The Sun again? Do, try not to fall for the obvious propaganda.

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The West has completely lost the plot. Laughable sanctions and completely out of order.

Russia will respond and on we go.

Respond how? Cut off the gas? That's cutting their nose off to spite their face. Their economy is totally one dimensional and they are reliant on the exports. I am curious as to why you rate the country so highly, it is utterly screwed long term.

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Nuke 'em!

(I jest)

Long-term heavy sanctions until, like Afghanistan but for different reasons, the pain becomes not worth the prize and a change of regieme says "enough".

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The talk sport presenters were panicing because one of the daily rags was saying Abramovich and the arsenal owner will have their assets siezed.

Also, one of them said how the Russians buying houses in London had boosted prices ( priced out the young/locals/British ) and kicked off a recovery ( future collapse ).....my rant at the radio cannot be printed here.

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Respond how? Cut off the gas? That's cutting their nose off to spite their face. Their economy is totally one dimensional and they are reliant on the exports. I am curious as to why you rate the country so highly, it is utterly screwed long term.

no more screwed than any other...People are the economy...and they have plenty of them.

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I don't know enough about what has/is going on to comment about it.....but what I do know is conflicts will no longer require people to fight and win them....money and finance are the new initial weapons of power and control, chemicals come after that...god forbid. :huh:

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no more screwed than any other...People are the economy...and they have plenty of them.

Yes but the people are all engaged in pumping oil and gas out the ground, much demand for which comes from Europe. No European demand no job.

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US/UK going after the cashflows. I guess at times like this is helps to have money transmission services and equity listings controlled via NY/London.

We are about to find out who is really in charge.

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Petrodollar Alert: Putin Prepares To Announce "Holy Grail" Gas Deal With China

Russia is preparing the announcement of the "Holy Grail" energy deal with none other than China, a move which would send geopolitical shockwaves around the world and bind the two nations in a commodity-backed axis.

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-03-21/petrodollar-alert-isolated-west-putin-prepares-announce-holy-grail-gas-deal-china

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Yes but the people are all engaged in pumping oil and gas out the ground, much demand for which comes from Europe. No European demand no job.

you mean there are no other customers?

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Feel free to name who is going to replace European demand for the Russians

so they close a few taps...is that less work for tap turners?

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Feel free to name who is going to replace European demand for the Russians

China. No pipelines existed previously between Russia and China. There is one now.

State-owned Russian gas firm Gazprom hopes to pump 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year to China from 2018 via the first pipeline between the world's largest producer of conventional gas to the largest consumer.

"May is in our plans," a Gazprom spokesman said, when asked about the timing of an agreement. A company source said: "It would be logical to expect the deal during Putin's visit to China."

Edited by Errol

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We are about to find out who is really in charge.

Your avatar indicates you have some interest in Japan. Understandable then that you would be supportive of America, upon who's favour Japan's entire post war wealth was built.

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China. No pipelines existed previously between Russia and China. There is one now.

State-owned Russian gas firm Gazprom hopes to pump 38 billion cubic meters (bcm) of natural gas per year to China from 2018 via the first pipeline between the world's largest producer of conventional gas to the largest consumer.

"May is in our plans," a Gazprom spokesman said, when asked about the timing of an agreement. A company source said: "It would be logical to expect the deal during Putin's visit to China."

1. That is in 4 years time

2. EU annual consumption is 462 billion cubic meters of which Russia supplies 27%

3. This means Russia supplies 124.64 billion cubic meters to EU

4. Even taking price differences into account it is clear that China cannot replace the EU in terms of demand.

5. This is a Mexican standoff.

Edit: Source:

http://m.chinapost.com.tw/business/2014/03/20/403234/Russian-share.htm

Edited by FaFa!

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Guest spp

Feel free to name who is going to replace European demand for the Russians

Ever heard of an IOU!?? Trade deals?

You really have no idea FaFa. The West is done.

Sinking in DEBT!

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Yes but the people are all engaged in pumping oil and gas out the ground, much demand for which comes from Europe. No European demand no job.

Yes, all Europe has to do is stop importing energy and that'll show 'em....

Presumably we can get the energy from the magic pixies instead.

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I find support for Putin on HPC fairly odd - I suppose it fits in with UKIP/gold mindset. But it's even odder to hear it from Joe Bloggs on radio phone-ins etc.

Cheerleading a murdering tyrant who just violated treaties designed to stop him menacing his neighbours, in a state subject to the energy producer paradox, with declining demographics, with a replacement customer that's just as tyrannical and is leveraged to the eyeballs on phoney debt. Oh, and Ukraine is a "special case". Daft.

The joys of free speech.

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