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Newsnight 18/3/14: The Economy Canna Take Much More

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Curvy FT Editor Gillian Tett claimed on Newsnight that the British economy is "on a sugar rush" and is "pumped up with cheap credit" with growth an illusion. She said it would either end in "a recession" or "high inflation" as something would have to give. Probably just after the 2015 election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03ymfrs

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Saw this. Bit of a knowing smile at the end.

Said that the IMF don't really believe we're out of the woods.

Bet she was in the green room beforehand telling Paxo to position himself.

Always found her analysis honest and to the point.

Nice subtle, dog whistle, HPCTV if ever i saw it.

Sit tight everyone.

Edited by shindigger

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She is one of the few who has kept to her viewpoint throughout all this isn't she?

You mean she kept looking at the economy not the votes ?

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She also made the point that all the froth was going into the pockets of the 1% to the detriment of hard working families. Anyone would think she was a socialist.

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Since there's been no reduction in personal debt (below) and the economy is still smaller than it was six years ago then the minute govt stops spending output is going to plummet just like it did in 2008.

pg-1-debt-graphic.jpg

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She also made the point that all the froth was going into the pockets of the 1% to the detriment of hard working families. Anyone would think she was a socialist.

Her point was that with ever decreasing amounts of disposable income the economy is just froth.

You only have to see the effect that the PPI payouts have had.

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Since there's been no reduction in personal debt (below) and the economy is still smaller than it was six years ago then the minute govt stops spending output is going to plummet just like it did in 2008.

pg-1-debt-graphic.jpg

Some marginal improvement in personal debt since 2009 because of the effects of inflation from 111% of GDP to 99% of GDP, but little change from 2007 when it was already ''unsustainable''. This article foresees problems that lie ahead too.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/10099326/Theres-a-worse-crisis-on-the-way-unless-we-get-serious-about-tackling-debt.html

Edited by crashmonitor

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Curvy FT Editor Gillian Tett claimed on Newsnight that the British economy is "on a sugar rush" and is "pumped up with cheap credit" with growth an illusion. She said it would either end in "a recession" or "high inflation" as something would have to give. Probably just after the 2015 election.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03ymfrs

I'm walking in the hills...

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Some marginal improvement in personal debt since 2009 because of the effects of inflation from 111% of GDP to 99% of GDP, but little change from 2007 when it was already ''unsustainable''. This article foresees problems that lie ahead too.

http://www.telegraph...kling-debt.html

I suspect even that marginal improvement will be unwound if Carney and Osborne let the London bubble to spill out nationwide in the next 12 months.

Realistically, household debt needs to come down ~40% of GDP, so it has room to grow again as the govt's stimulus efforts are scaled back.

Murderous public spending cuts/inflation ahoy. :ph34r:

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I like Gillain Tett. She reminds me of Patsy Kensit's old sister.

I was going to say 'easier sister' but Patsy's pretty loose.

She's been good as she an anthropologist. She watches human behaviour. Anyone observing the people operating in the financial markey from the mid 90s to 2005 will have made the same conclusion.

Compare that to idiot-economists, who try and make some sort of stupid, naive model work - to suit some political desires, without being able to do complex maths, of complexity.

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What did she say?

That £1 is really worth 3d?

She said announcing it a few hours before the budget was good distraction when you had nothing much to give in a budget and the economy is in a mess.

I would call it classic diversion.

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She's been good as she an anthropologist. She watches human behaviour.

Yeah, I was surprised at that fact. I imagine it would make one sceptical of economic modelling.

She needed to explain easy money - HTB credit?

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Saw this. Bit of a knowing smile at the end.

Said that the IMF don't really believe we're out of the woods.

Bet she was in the green room beforehand telling Paxo to position himself.

Always found her analysis honest and to the point.

Nice subtle, dog whistle, HPCTV if ever i saw it.

Sit tight everyone.

Now then, now then...

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Yeah, I was surprised at that fact. I imagine it would make one sceptical of economic modelling.

She needed to explain easy money - HTB credit?

We have a toy bear at work. People have to describe their problems to it before taking up someone else's time first.

It works!

Ms Tett went from understanding and documenting tribal beliefs from the Russian Steppes to the UK credit markets.

One has an elaborate. mystical belief system to explain and justify their existence. The other drink fermented Yak's milk.

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