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Mugwump

Scaring Them Off The Fence.

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There seems to be a constant stream of scare stories designed to panic would be house buyers into making the jump from the fence into dung heap of debt waiting on the other side.

Whenever there is something presented as an incentive to buy, whether it is low interest rates, HTB, or some other special deal, it creates a new wave of the "now is the time to buy" brigade. This always seems to be followed by a scare tactic. Rates are going to rise next year, or lending criteria are going to be tightened or some other future disaster waits just around the corner which will devour alive the potential debtor if they dont act now. So they do. They are scared of missing the boat, poor things.

I wondered what you all think about this. Is there a deliberate ploy by TPTB to constantly incentivise then terrorize Joe Bloggs, to make him jump off the fence so as to make way for the next wave of potential buyers? And if so, what will they try next?

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Is there a deliberate ploy by TPTB to constantly incentivise then terrorize Joe Bloggs, to make him jump off the fence so as to make way for the next wave of potential buyers? And if so, what will they try next?

It's just human nature - we're scared of missing something.

And who knows - it could be right.

They could go up another 20% from here (in London) and 100%+ in north - then settle at a peak price for a decade or two.

You may need to look outside the UK if you want a family home without writing off 70% of your net income for next 25 years.

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It's just human nature - we're scared of missing something.

And who knows - it could be right.

They could go up another 20% from here (in London) and 100%+ in north - then settle at a peak price for a decade or two.

You may need to look outside the UK if you want a family home without writing off 70% of your net income for next 25 years.

I agree, there comes a point where it just isn't financially feasible any more. That point is long past for me, i dont see any possible good/value in almost 2 decades of worry, work and saving resulting in a crappy new build flat.

Im looking to move back to Holland or elsewhere. I dont really want to leave the UK, but the real fact is i dont have the money to live in one of the pockets i consider a nice place to live and raise a family.

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It's just human nature - we're scared of missing something.

And who knows - it could be right.

They could go up another 20% from here (in London) and 100%+ in north - then settle at a peak price for a decade or two.

You may need to look outside the UK if you want a family home without writing off 70% of your net income for next 25 years.

I don't think it could settle at peak price for a decade or two ... because high prices are sustained by bubble sentiment. When the bubble stops inflating for a considerable while, barring interference from TPTB, the bubble sentiment disappears and prices fall. Repeat 'barring interference from TPTB'.

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There seems to be a constant stream of scare stories designed to panic would be house buyers into making the jump from the fence into dung heap of debt waiting on the other side.

Whenever there is something presented as an incentive to buy, whether it is low interest rates, HTB, or some other special deal, it creates a new wave of the "now is the time to buy" brigade. This always seems to be followed by a scare tactic. Rates are going to rise next year, or lending criteria are going to be tightened or some other future disaster waits just around the corner which will devour alive the potential debtor if they dont act now. So they do. They are scared of missing the boat, poor things.

I wondered what you all think about this. Is there a deliberate ploy by TPTB to constantly incentivise then terrorize Joe Bloggs, to make him jump off the fence so as to make way for the next wave of potential buyers? And if so, what will they try next?

Propaganda.

If there was a war it would be...it's great to be shot in the head type stuff on the TV. or, give up your life for your country ( read as give up your life for the 1%-ers ).

I have no experience of being shot in the head but I am guessing it's not great despite what they'd tell you.

I have experience of paying too much for a house and being stuck in it for 18 months unable to sell it though.

Thinking about it , I'd rather be shot in the head than buy at these insane prices :lol:

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere

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The scare stories have largely been correct though. People were warned last year that they needed to buy or they would be priced out. Fast forward 12 months, and the remaining few 'affordable' areas of Zone 1-3 London that have reasonable transport links (Peckham, Leytonstone, Elephant and Castle, Seven Sisters, etc) have seen crazy 20-30% increases in prices, and the chance of finding a decent house for under £300k is pretty much gone.

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s there a deliberate ploy by TPTB to constantly incentivise then terrorize Joe Bloggs, to make him jump off the fence so as to make way for the next wave of potential buyers?

Not looking as far ahead as the next wave. They are just focused on securing the fate of people's cash (earnings) to save a crash

what will they try next?

Interest rate rise

You will find that you have no spare cash if you buy a house with a mortgage

and if you don't buy a house, they will still need your wages and will access them somehow

Edited by LiveinHope

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The scare stories have largely been correct though. People were warned last year that they needed to buy or they would be priced out. Fast forward 12 months, and the remaining few 'affordable' areas of Zone 1-3 London that have reasonable transport links (Peckham, Leytonstone, Elephant and Castle, Seven Sisters, etc) have seen crazy 20-30% increases in prices, and the chance of finding a decent house for under £300k is pretty much gone.

Priced out for another 12 months maybe, if Osborne can keep the shit show together until the GE. And then what, when interest rates begin to rise?

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Propaganda.

If there was a war it would be...it's great to be shot in the head type stuff on the TV. or, give up your life for your country ( read as give up your life for the 1%-ers ).

I have no experience of being shot in the head but I am guessing it's not great despite what they'd tell you.

I have experience of paying too much for a house and being stuck in it for 18 months unable to sell it though.

Thinking about it , I'd rather be shot in the head than buy at these insane prices :lol:

If their is a war it is much safer to be i the UK than in Europe.

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Priced out for another 12 months maybe, if Osborne can keep the shit show together until the GE. And then what, when interest rates begin to rise?

What is concerning me, is the momentum of the housing market. The thing ran like wiley coyote over the cliff edge in 2008/2009. BUT IT DIDN'T HIT THE *!$&ing ground before enormous supports could be built up to reach it.

I would not mind, but the rental market is terrible and shoddy.

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Priced out for another 12 months maybe, if Osborne can keep the shit show together until the GE. And then what, when interest rates begin to rise?

I do believe Osborne has achieved the impossible, proven to be a worse chancellor that Brown. That it should be obvious that the problem was a huge debt bubble, and more debt not the answer, makes his actions more contemptible*. Help To Buy for its given purpose of 'helping' first time buyers is immoral - it doesn't. This is about politics and the abuse of power in an attempt to keep hold of power.

It doesn't matter who is in charge now, they are interchangeable, having emerged from the same cesspit.

*This cannot be sustained without great cost. The problem of course those making and lobbying for these decisions are never the ones to suffer.

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If their is a war it is much safer to be in the UK than in Europe.

Really? With an (at best) 3-day food supply chain, no arable land for the majority, mass over-population, limited social cohesion and a temporarily paid-off feral underclass? The UK will be begging for the Russians harder than the Crimeans.

Still, maybe it would all do some good. Take the 4th richest UK family, the oh-so-lovely Cadogans. They got there purely off the back of aristocratic, rentier land-hoarding and in recent history screwed leasehold property (an already sh*t deal) for everyone. Their motto is "He who envies is the lesser man": http://******/1p4Sa1V. Now there are some heads that would look good in a basket!

Edited by Cozza

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Priced out for another 12 months maybe, if Osborne can keep the shit show together until the GE. And then what, when interest rates begin to rise?

Historically, interest rate rises correspond to rises in house prices (both in the UK, and elsewhere). Obviously if all else is equal then increased rates will reduce prices but in practice rates tend to be raised during the times the economy is going well, which drives up house prices. The idea of interest rate rises causing a property crash has never happened anywhere imo, its just wishful thinking.

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Historically, interest rate rises correspond to rises in house prices (both in the UK, and elsewhere). Obviously if all else is equal then increased rates will reduce prices but in practice rates tend to be raised during the times the economy is going well, which drives up house prices. The idea of interest rate rises causing a property crash has never happened anywhere imo, its just wishful thinking.

Then why hasn't magic Mark increased the base rate then in this 'recovery'

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Historically, interest rate rises correspond to rises in house prices (both in the UK, and elsewhere). Obviously if all else is equal then increased rates will reduce prices but in practice rates tend to be raised during the times the economy is going well, which drives up house prices. The idea of interest rate rises causing a property crash has never happened anywhere imo, its just wishful thinking.

Flaring nonsense. Transparently there's a correlation between house prices and interest rates (below), it's just that base rates have been continuously manipulated lower for the last thirty years to facilitate a succession of debt bubbles.

Emerging market rates have been rising since the start of the year, but this absolutely nothing to do with economic success. The exact opposite in fact. India, South Africa, Turkey etc. Brazil currently has a base rate of 10.75% but an expected annual growth rate of 2-3%.

In the US just tapering the monthly QE handouts has been sufficient to pour cold water on Bernanke's second housing bubble. Hard to imagine how far prices would fall if the Fed were to really tighten and start hiking rates.

1038538-1327950659294613-Lance-Roberts_origin.png

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Because we still haven't recovered yet! :P And he knows it! B)

Because we can't afford one! The interest on the UK's national debt will almost certainly breach 4% before the end of the year when an additional £113bn is added to the national debt. The last time debt interest payments climbed above 4% of GDP was the recession of the early 80s. Even in the depths of WWII they didn't go much above 5%!

Such is the scale of Osborne's insane borrowing.

debt-interest-payments-per-cent-98-12-500x377.png

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Flaring nonsense. Transparently there's a correlation between house prices and interest rates (below), it's just that base rates have been continuously manipulated lower for the last thirty years to facilitate a succession of debt bubbles.

Emerging market rates have been rising since the start of the year, but this absolutely nothing to do with economic success. The exact opposite in fact. India, South Africa, Turkey etc. Brazil currently has a base rate of 10.75% but an expected annual growth rate of 2-3%.

In the US just tapering the monthly QE handouts has been sufficient to pour cold water on Bernanke's second housing bubble. Hard to imagine how far prices would fall if the Fed were to really tighten and start hiking rates.

1038538-1327950659294613-Lance-Roberts_origin.png

I like how that start year of that graph has been deliberately chosen to make it look like they are inversely correlated, when over a longer time horizon they clearly arent. Here is the full picture, for reference:

USA-Home-Price_1950-2009-real.png

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Thinking about it , I'd rather be shot in the head than buy at these insane prices :lol:

:lol:

It's just excuses this being scared of missing out.

These buyers are the ones most responsible for the monthly/annual increases in HPI, at x2-x10 prices I'd be willing to pay.

They are the HPI enemy, or collaborators anyway, to me. They make their own choices.

What happens when a stoppable buying force meets an overvalued object?

I hope we'll find out near future, as this market pulls in just about all those who could buy, and very few buyers left willing/able to meet such asking prices.

Edited by Venger

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Because we can't afford one! The interest on the UK's national debt will almost certainly breach 4% before the end of the year when an additional £113bn is added to the national debt. The last time debt interest payments climbed above 4% of GDP was the recession of the early 80s. Even in the depths of WWII they didn't go much above 5%!

Such is the scale of Osborne's insane borrowing.

debt-interest-payments-per-cent-98-12-500x377.png

great chart

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