Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

interestrateripoff

Nasa-Funded Study Warns Of ‘Collapse Of Civilisation’ In Coming Decades

Recommended Posts

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/nasafunded-study-warns-of-collapse-of-civilisation-in-coming-decades-9195668.html

Modern civilisation is heading for collapse within a matter of decades because of growing economic instability and pressure on the planet’s resources, according to a scientific study funded by Nasa.

Using theoretical models to predict what will happen to the industrialised world over the course of the next century or so, mathematicians found that even with conservative estimates things started to go very badly, very quickly.

Referring to the past collapses of often very sophisticated civilisations – the Roman, Han and Gupta Empires for example – the study noted that the elite of society have often pushed for a “business as usual” approach to warnings of disaster until it is too late.

In the report based on his “Human And Nature Dynamical” (Handy) model, the applied mathematician Safa Motesharri wrote: “the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history”.

His research, carried out with the help of a team of natural and social scientists and with funding from Nasa’s Goddard Space Flight Center, has been accepted for publication in the Ecological Economics journal, the Guardian reported.

Motesharri explored the factors which could lead to the collapse of civilisation, from population growth to climate change, and found that when these converge they can cause society to break down because of the “stretching of resources” and “the economic stratification of society into ‘Elites’ and ‘Masses’”.

Now I bet this has all cheered you up.

I wonder what it will mean for house prices....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've thought for a wile now, but don't dare to mention it, that the human race needs a massive cull, it will save us eventually and the planet, which we will destroy if we are not kept in check.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Professor Hawkins just said to the astronauts on the space station that the world has increasing population and limited resources and he is worried.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Now I bet this has all cheered you up.

I wonder what it will mean for house prices....

Yay! Neo-Malthusianism

Malthus had the imminent collapse all worked out 215 years ago. He used real sums, and models, everything.

Well-to-do bloke computes if there are any surplus-to-requirement plebs in the world and concludes that yes, yes there are.

Shame Malthus didn't have the means to set up a populationcrash.co.uk forum. Posters would have been able to hand down their user IDs and expectations of an impending catastrophic correction, like treasured heirlooms from one generation to the next.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Professor Hawkins just said to the astronauts on the space station that the world has increasing population and limited resources and he is worried.

So did he tell the astronauts that they would have to stay up there?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've thought for a wile now, but don't dare to mention it, that the human race needs a massive cull, it will save us eventually and the planet, which we will destroy if we are not kept in check.

Why do you hate brown people? Because they're the ones you'll have to 'cull'. I believe every nation is the West is now facing declining native population as the welfare state makes kids a liability.

As for this 'study', well, duh. Governments have built up unaffordable liabilities, and can't force the productive to pay them. The only way out is growth or collapse, and bloated government prevents growth.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So did he tell the astronauts that they would have to stay up there?

He asked them to have a word with Russia about letting him join them.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Martin Rees, The Astronomer Royal, wrote a book called Our Final Century which I found interesting. He discusses the threats to civilization and humanity.

I can't see a rosy future for humanity in a world where profit is everything regardless of its effects.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Martin Rees, The Astronomer Royal, wrote a book called Our Final Century which I found interesting. He discusses the threats to civilization and humanity.

I can't see a rosy future for humanity in a world where profit is everything regardless of its effects.

I'd be the first to admit that there are sensible and less sensible ways of going about things

but...

It's not as if people claiming that, on account of our sins, the End of the World is nigh is a particularly recent innovation, is it?

PS There appears to be an unwritten Internet Rule that threads on this subject eventually include a reference to George Carlin's 'The planet is fine, the people are f***ed' skit. Just for a change, here's Carlin, near the end of his days, not giving a t0ss any more, and relishing the end of the Freak Show...

edit: longer clip

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Martin Rees, The Astronomer Royal, wrote a book called Our Final Century which I found interesting. He discusses the threats to civilization and humanity.

I can't see a rosy future for humanity in a world where profit is everything regardless of its effects.

He's one of the very few worth heeding, but I hadn't heard of that book - must check it out.

Here's a blogging actuary who reckons climate change isn't something to worry about, because financial collapse will soon come with the increased cost of oil extraction. Frack away all you want, boys - it may not make a difference to carbon emissions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/science/nasafunded-study-warns-of-collapse-of-civilisation-in-coming-decades-9195668.html

Now I bet this has all cheered you up.

I wonder what it will mean for house prices....

I am pretty certain that economic stratification into elites and masses happened in the Roman and Aztec Empires long before they collapsed. In fact it was pretty much the reason these entities came into existence in the first place. The division between Patricians and Plebeians went right back to the dawn of the Roman Republic. Moreover, the collapse of political systems is not necessarily the same as the collapse of civilisation. For example, the classical world saw many dominant powers Athens, Macedonia, the Hellenistic kingdoms and Rome which essentially shared a common civilisation. Coping with resource depletion and population pressure was also one of the reasons some civilisations actually came into existence in the first place as they often represented new organisational, economic and political ways of responding to these issues, Population growth was almost certainly not the cause of the collapse of the western Roman Empire as there is a fair bit of archaeological evidence that urban areas began to shrink in size long before barbarian invaders took over. Indeed, I would think it could be argued that one of main the resource shortages prior to the collapse of the Roman Empire in the west was people. By contrast the eastern Roman Empire survived longer because it had bigger towns and more population.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_demography

One of the things to remember about pre industrial civilisations is that simple human and animal muscle power was the basis of all production. Given that mortality rates particularly in the cities was high then a constant supply of people was a necessity. Most civilisations acquired the extra manpower by conquest (is by stealing it from their neighbours). This was basically how Rome grew from a minor city state into a power that dominated the Mediterranean. It simply overran its rivals and made their people part of its citizen body. This meant more taxes and a bigger army. Once the empire ceased to expand or the conquests failed to provide a sufficient supply of new labour to replace the attrition due to disease etc then decline and collapse was almost inevitable. In that respect Rome was like a shark that had to keep swimming and feeding just to exist.

I think extrapolating the collapse of industrial civilisation from pre industrial examples like Rome is fraught with problems. This does not mean that our civilisation is immune from the process of collapse just that it might not take the route taken by earlier examples.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'd be the first to admit that there are sensible and less sensible ways of going about things

but...

It's not as if people claiming that, on account of our sins, the End of the World in nigh is a particularly recent innovation, is it?

PS There appears to be an unwritten Internet Rule that threads on this subject eventually include a reference to George Carlin's 'The planet is fine, the people are f***ed' skit. Just for a change, here's Carlin, near the end of his days, not giving a t0ss any more, and relishing the end of the Freak Show...

edit: longer clip

Thanks for posting that clip :lol:

Yeh, End of the World predictions seem to be an ongoing fascination with humans. No wonder we haven't really got a clue what we're existing in.

I align a lot with the late George Carlin on his views and not giving a tOss about it all.

I find George's comments on being an observer of the freakshow interesting. I'm not religious but I like some of the Buddhist Philosophy on life and their approach to meditation. Went on courses to learn about meditation at Samye Ling Monastery quite near to me.

I've found this helps for living in the now and observing the never ending thoughts that pop up in the mind without allowing emotion to take over. Stuff just becomes interesting to mullover, like George puts it observing the freak show :lol: .

I liked another book called Full Catrastophe Living By Jon Kabat Zin about mindfulness and coping with life. Just love the title of that book! Anyway apologies I digress, which I have a tendency to do :rolleyes:

All civilisations rise and fall and I think we may be on the fall. I don't really care what happens as I try to enjoy each day. Just find it interesting to speculate.

I'm enjoying HPC Forum it's good to communicate with people who think about stuff a bit deeper than acquiring your next designer trainers etc

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

He's one of the very few worth heeding, but I hadn't heard of that book - must check it out.

Here's a blogging actuary who reckons climate change isn't something to worry about, because financial collapse will soon come with the increased cost of oil extraction. Frack away all you want, boys - it may not make a difference to carbon emissions.

Yeh, regarding Martin Rees a few years ago I watched a 3 part programme he done for BBC about what we "know" about the universe. I found it refreshing because he was humble and stated that we don't know a great lot but he discussed main theories very lucidly.

Regarding climate change, well it seems to have always changed and I don't really know if humans are causing extra problems. Will have a look at the blog you linked to, thanks. It's all interesting stuff to think about

.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

By contrast the eastern Roman Empire survived longer because it had bigger towns and more population.

... and a shorter North European frontier to defend with that population

2ikxu8k.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frack away all you want, boys - it may not make a difference to carbon emissions.

This presentation entitled 'Collapse of Complex Societies' cropped up on HPC (main board I think) a while back

Tainter is pitching that the key resource that 'peaks' is not any tangible commodity but the capacity for cost-effective innovation...

Tainter begins by categorizing and examining the often inconsistent explanations that have been offered for collapse in the literature.[4] In Tainter's view, while invasions, crop failures, disease or environmental degradation may be the apparent causes of societal collapse, the ultimate cause is an economic one, inherent in the structure of society rather than in external shocks which may batter them: diminishing returns on investments in social complexity.[5] Finally, Tainter musters modern statistics to show that marginal returns on investments in energy, education and technological innovation are diminishing today. The globalised modern world is subject to many of the same stresses that brought older societies to ruin.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One example supporting Tainter's hypothesis that complex societies end up wasting resources in their quest for innovation might be large, public funded agencies, tasked with space exploration, spunking money on tarting-up and representing 200 year old theses on the collapse of civilisations

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One example supporting Tainter's hypothesis that complex societies end up wasting resources in their quest for innovation might be large, public funded agencies, tasked with space exploration, spunking money on tarting-up and representing 200 year old theses on the collapse of civilisations

Agreed.

Some cynical people might think it would be cheaper simply to download a copy of Gibbons Decline and Fall from the Gutenberg project.

As for 'complexity' as a cause of collapse I am not convinced that the classical world was that much more complicated in stucture at the time of its collapse than it was when Alexander the Great died. The Mediterranean city state lay at its heart from beginning to end even when subsumed in the vast Roman empire.

With regard to the peasants selling their offspring into slavery and migrating to the towns that had been happening from before the time of Augustus. Indeed, worries about birth rates was a perennial issue in the ancient world and Augustus himself published edicts trying to address the matter at least 4 centuries before the western Empire collapsed.

Personally I think what did for the Roman Empire was that it ran out of worthwhile things to conquer and that it ended up fighting too many futile and unproductive wars with relative primitive tribes like the Germans and Dacians whose cost could not really be justified in respect of the economic returns on the effort. Now that is something which has parallels with today.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

wtf are on about, how do you know I'm not black?

You said you want to 'cull' the human race. That means murdering billions of brown people. Why do you hate them so much? When will you build the death camps?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

As for 'complexity' as a cause of collapse I am not convinced that the classical world was that much more complicated in stucture at the time of its collapse than it was when Alexander the Great died.

It's not complexity per se, but the cost of innovating to solve new problems. When the cost exceeds the benefit, collapse is the only thing a society can do.

Just as, for example, we're seeing with attempts to 'innovate' their way out of the financial system collapse they've created. At this point in time, just about everything governments do makes things worse.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

wtf are on about, how do you know I'm not black?

You are blue in your avatar! :huh:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You said you want to 'cull' the human race. That means murdering billions of brown people. Why do you hate them so much? When will you build the death camps?

The people will make their own death camps. Nations will flee when their lands are hostile and barren. They will seek refuge in other dry hungry countries. And people will use guns to defend their own dustbowl/flood/ice until they too starve.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The people will make their own death camps. Nations will flee when their lands are hostile and barren. They will seek refuge in other dry hungry countries. And people will use guns to defend their own dustbowl/flood/ice until they too starve.

Put on a happy face! I know it's Monday, but still! :blink:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   203 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.