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Pent Up Housing Demand - Gradually Exhausting Itself

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http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-26555839

Buyers are my enemy.

When they're out there pushing and falling over one another to pay high and higher prices.

It's true there are few sellers coming to market... but I have noticed many a house on and off market past few year. Still trying to get crazy asking prices.

Just maybe there is a lot hidden pent up demand to sell.... owners thinking they can comfortably hold buyers hostage to their super high valuations.

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Interesting, thanks. Maybe most serious 'must buy' types have used HTB1 by now.

Guess equity release takes the pressure off some would-be sellers of a certain age, but only for a while. Add in plenty of accidental LL type rentals available round here and the supply constraints seem to be revealed (forbearance too ofc).

Bearish for rents and although a poor second to an HPC, it'll do for now, albeit I talk from a position of being able to move freely around a selection of the NW, we'll see how sanguine I am if the same situation exists with school age kids.

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My experience has been lots of "buyers" willing to make stupid offers to hold off other potential suitors for a while, then a week or so later, they suddenly decide it's not for them with various excuses, plenty of buyers it seems...not enough completer's.

Selling and buying has been a nightmare I do not wish to repeat, ever.

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My bubble barometer is the fathers other half. She has just had an offer accepted on her overpriced house that has been on/off the market since 2011.

The buyers mortgage valuer has been around and now she is saying that she cannot afford to move as there is no where to downsize to from her 2.5 bed semi. She is looking for a village location 2 bedroom bungalow.

She now says that she is staying put for the foreseeable as she will never be able to afford to move.

The mother-in-law is in a similar situation. Ex council house bought in 199x - no maintance been carried out since as "she can't afford it" - she has been trying to sell at an over inflated price so that she can move to a house that needs nothing doing - aka a new barrat house. Big fat zero chance of that happening.

So that sums up the only two people [boomers] attempting to sell that I know about. Both located in the south west.

IMO 50%+ of properties on the market are older time wasters who are trying to get something for nothing on the back of rising prices. It's all they know and have experienced for the last 30 years. It's this group of voters who Cameron is rying to please with H2B MKII.

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Guess equity release takes the pressure off some would-be sellers of a certain age, but only for a while.

Hope it catches up with the market eventually, and we can still make many choices when renting.

Any easing in the property market will bring relief to the Bank of England, with the governor, Mark Carney, under pressure to prevent a house price bubble wrecking the economic recovery.

:lol:

More on this RICS piece in link below. And I see the HPC cynicism on the thread, and agree with it, maybe positioning for budget. This article has a few points of info, including perhaps a bit of a ticking off for greedy owners/sellers:

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/mar/12/property-buyers-slowdown-rics-weather-sale-prices

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IMO 50%+ of properties on the market are older time wasters who are trying to get something for nothing on the back of rising prices. It's all they know and have experienced for the last 30 years. It's this group of voters who Cameron is rying to please with H2B MKII.

I think you're right. The Tories know very well that giving loans for/guaranteeing deposits for FTBs is betraying them. They're after the old NIMBY vote as always.

Edited by Eddie_George

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It is funny that the market has run out of steam close to a budget statement.

:D

Chancellor George Osborne:-

" Lastly, I can today announce to the House that due to the success of my HTB scheme which has enabled 15,000 hard working young first time buyers to fulfil their dream of buying their own home, I shall be extending the scheme in a last ditch attempt to throw the kitchen sink at ekeing out whatever few remaining votes I can to give myself the best possible opportunity to become Prime Minister. I commend this shameless bribe to the House!"

(I'm available for speech writing Mr Hilton. Send me a PM)

Edited by R K

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Talking with some of my tame trained EAs they are a tad confused at the moment.

They read all the Daily Express headlines about rising house prices and have been, in some cases, been ramping accordingly. They were convinced that this was going to be a boom start to 2014 but apparently they aren't seeing it.

According to one I spoke with this week they are seeing the usual suspects, who have been unable to sell for years, bringing their houses back on the market for silyl asking prices or even higher sillier asking prices. I am told some EAs are pumping up asking prices of such 'ol back on market' stock.

But, generally, they tell me there is little new coming on the market and lots of sellers are demanding houses are put on for X when the asking price should be a lower Y. So, seems like the madness continues.

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Talking with some of my tame trained EAs they are a tad confused at the moment.

They read all the Daily Express headlines about rising house prices and have been, in some cases, been ramping accordingly. They were convinced that this was going to be a boom start to 2014 but apparently they aren't seeing it.

According to one I spoke with this week they are seeing the usual suspects, who have been unable to sell for years, bringing their houses back on the market for silyl asking prices or even higher sillier asking prices. I am told some EAs are pumping up asking prices of such 'ol back on market' stock.

But, generally, they tell me there is little new coming on the market and lots of sellers are demanding houses are put on for X when the asking price should be a lower Y. So, seems like the madness continues.

I know a couple of these older 'usual suspects'

They have reached a point in life where the financial demands on them are higher.

Health etc. but also the 'Boomer's Boomerang' in that having encouraged higher prices, they are now faced with children, even grand children asking for help to go to college, become FTB etc.

They cannot understand what is happening. Their over valued brick pile in the outer suburbs or countryside now needs expensive maintenance which they cannot afford. They find the petrol costs and sheer fatigue of 'nipping to town' are prohibitive.

They would love to downsize to something near the town centre, but MEW etc. means that unless they can get their high asking price, they are doomed.

I try to explain how a fall in house prices of 50% across the board would deal with all these problems, only to be told that they owe so much on their house that they cannot encompass such a fall.

Edited by Byron

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I know a couple of these older 'usual suspects'

They have reached a point in life where the financial demands on them are higher.

Health etc. but also the 'Boomer's Boomerang' in that having encouraged higher prices, they are now faced with children, even grand children asking for help to go to college, become FTB etc.

They cannot understand what is happening. Their over valued brick pile in the outer suburbs or countryside now needs expensive maintenance which they cannot afford. They find the petrol costs and sheer fatigue of 'nipping to town' are prohibitive.

They would love to downsize to something near the town centre, but MEW etc. means that unless they can get their high asking price, they are doomed.

I try to explain how a fall in house prices of 50% across the board would deal with all these problems, only to be told that they owe so much on their house that they cannot encompass such a fall.

Yep, that is it.

I was talking recently with a couple who, for a few years, have been very chuffed by how much their house is worth... according to the local Mumbles EAs and their own deluded viewpoint of reading Daily Express headlines.

However, they have a couple of kids and it has just dawned on them that their kids are going to end up with enormous debt if they go to university... and that their kids will not be able to ever afford a home anywhere near Mum & Dad.

The penny hasn't quite dropped yet though. I think it only will when the kids simply move away to live.

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I know a couple of these older 'usual suspects'

They have reached a point in life where the financial demands on them are higher.

Health etc. but also the 'Boomer's Boomerang' in that having encouraged higher prices, they are now faced with children, even grand children asking for help to go to college, become FTB etc.

They cannot understand what is happening. Their over valued brick pile in the outer suburbs or countryside now needs expensive maintenance which they cannot afford. They find the petrol costs and sheer fatigue of 'nipping to town' are prohibitive.

They would love to downsize to something near the town centre, but MEW etc. means that unless they can get their high asking price, they are doomed.

I try to explain how a fall in house prices of 50% across the board would deal with all these problems, only to be told that they owe so much on their house that they cannot encompass such a fall.

Even the ones with little/no mortgage and now living on a pension are unable to move. Many of thee 'down sizers' would like to move from standard small 3 bed semis into yet small er houses in the same area, but simply cannot afford to.

Spot on with the maintenance, heating, council tax and petrol costs crippling them.

How on earth is a downsizer attempting to move from a deteriorating £140k semi supposed to downsize to a £120k new flat that is close to town?

I suppose the only solution is higher house prices :lol:

I think most 'timewasters' are beginning to see that they are screwed.

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Even the ones with little/no mortgage and now living on a pension are unable to move. Many of thee 'down sizers' would like to move from standard small 3 bed semis into yet small er houses in the same area, but simply cannot afford to.

Spot on with the maintenance, heating, council tax and petrol costs crippling them.

How on earth is a downsizer attempting to move from a deteriorating £140k semi supposed to downsize to a £120k new flat that is close to town?

I suppose the only solution is higher house prices :lol:

I think most 'timewasters' are beginning to see that they are screwed.

It'll take time. It takes 10 seconds to convince someone their house has gone up in price, but a year to convince them it's gone down...

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Talking with some of my tame trained EAs they are a tad confused at the moment.

They read all the Daily Express headlines about rising house prices and have been, in some cases, been ramping accordingly. They were convinced that this was going to be a boom start to 2014 but apparently they aren't seeing it.

According to one I spoke with this week they are seeing the usual suspects, who have been unable to sell for years, bringing their houses back on the market for silyl asking prices or even higher sillier asking prices. I am told some EAs are pumping up asking prices of such 'ol back on market' stock.

But, generally, they tell me there is little new coming on the market and lots of sellers are demanding houses are put on for X when the asking price should be a lower Y. So, seems like the madness continues.

Where's the demand going to come from in Swansea?

Land registry showing prices stuck at 2004 levels for past year. Currently about May 2004, so no nominal growth for 10 years. -6.2% yoy.

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Where's the demand going to come from in Swansea?

Land registry showing prices stuck at 2004 levels for past year. Currently about May 2004, so no nominal growth for 10 years. -6.2% yoy.

Well, there was a time when over-paid Londoners would come here on a sunny day and snap up places near the beaches.

However, a steady diet of Welsh weather slowly convinces them of their error!

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My pent up demand was exhausted back in 2012.

Safe to say I didn't buy then and it'll be a miracle if I buy in the next 2 years. Prices here are still too high.

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Well, there was a time when over-paid Londoners would come here on a sunny day and snap up places near the beaches.

However, a steady diet of Welsh weather slowly convinces them of their error!

There is one EA I can think of who, everytime I have an encounter with him, I have the urge to go home and shower. I feel like a snail has slimed all over me. He has this sales patter of, in a sincere voice, "We have something special and unique here" which he uses time and time again - huge ramper of asking prices IMPO.

Some EAs don't mind having ludicrous asking prices on their books as it makes others look cheap. Classic marketing.

It looks like the city is now exhausted. Seems everyone I meet over 50 has been pensioned off from the DVLA, tax office, council or NHS. The city centre is now a slum IMPO.

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It looks like the city is now exhausted. Seems everyone I meet over 50 has been pensioned off from the DVLA, tax office, council or NHS. The city centre is now a slum IMPO.

http://flipchartfairytales.wordpress.com/2014/03/11/what-happens-when-the-pensions-dry-up/

What happens when the pensions run out?

My late father-in-law used to joke about the pensioners jugging up in the pubs and clubs of South Wales. He reckoned the old folk drank more than the youngsters. It certainly seemed that way last time I was in his local Wetherspoons just before noon on a Tuesday lunchtime and found the place full of sixty- and seventy-somethings tucking into pub lunches.

Edited by 7 Year Itch

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There is one EA I can think of who, everytime I have an encounter with him, I have the urge to go home and shower. I feel like a snail has slimed all over me. He has this sales patter of, in a sincere voice, "We have something special and unique here" which he uses time and time again - huge ramper of asking prices IMPO.

Some EAs don't mind having ludicrous asking prices on their books as it makes others look cheap. Classic marketing.

It looks like the city is now exhausted. Seems everyone I meet over 50 has been pensioned off from the DVLA, tax office, council or NHS. The city centre is now a slum IMPO.

Well, I am a lot older than you and to me it has always had that look of having been given a make over by that well know designer, Herman Goering.

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