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Uk Economy 'to Reach 2008 Peak In Summer'

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>>>The size of the UK economy will surpass its pre-recession peak by the summer, according to an upgraded forecast from the British Chambers of Commerce.

The business lobby group believes the UK will grow by 2.8% this year and that the second quarter will see gross domestic product rise to the level seen in the first quarter of 2008.<<<

Sunny times ahead?...

:rolleyes:

http://news.sky.com/story/1223229/uk-economy-to-reach-2008-peak-in-summer

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>>>The size of the UK economy will surpass its pre-recession peak by the summer, according to an upgraded forecast from the British Chambers of Commerce.

The business lobby group believes the UK will grow by 2.8% this year and that the second quarter will see gross domestic product rise to the level seen in the first quarter of 2008.<<<

Sunny times ahead?...

:rolleyes:

http://news.sky.com/story/1223229/uk-economy-to-reach-2008-peak-in-summer

This may be the case, but it's not the point. Such growth as there is is entirely illusory and built on unsustainable factors such as Funding for Lending, QE, low interest rates, PPI payouts and higher corporate profit levels resulting from squeezing down employee wages. It will vanish like snow in spring.

People tell me that I'm slightly odd...

itsarandomworld

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This may be the case, but it's not the point. Such growth as there is is entirely illusory and built on unsustainable factors such as Funding for Lending, QE, low interest rates, PPI payouts and higher corporate profit levels resulting from squeezing down employee wages. It will vanish like snow in spring.

The Tories will just throw everything at the economy over the winter to keep the economy appear to be recovering. They have an election to win you know.

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Another £113bn of Osborne's covert borrowing to be included in the national debt from September. :D

But it's OK, the primary deficit can still be massaged downwards from £114bn/yr (7.3% of GDP) to £111bn/yr (7.2% of GDP) under the new accounting rules. :rolleyes:

Spend. Spend. Spend.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/britain-borrowing-idUSL6N0LX25J20140228

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The Tories will just throw everything at the economy over the winter to keep the economy appear to be recovering. They have an election to win you know.

Yes, correct. The analogy of a snake eating its own tail springs to mind....

People tell me that I'm slightly odd...

itsarandomworld

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And how much has the population gone up since 2008 so GDP per capita still significantly down...

How much more debt has been used to "create" this GDP and how much mroe are we going to have to repay out of future income???

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>>>The size of the UK economy will surpass its pre-recession peak by the summer, according to an upgraded forecast from the British Chambers of Commerce.

No it won't - not the real economy.

GDP has become more than anything else an electioneering stat.

A bogus feel good stat easy to manipulate with extra debt and QE etc and manipulation of other stats like employment and CPI etc.

GDP is a simpleton stat.

GDP goes up and London house prices go up while the real economy just keeps going down.

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Peaked too soon ?

The last "peak" destroyed itself....this one is less sustainable than the last.

I would love to see Osborne become the 2nd worst chancellor this century...oh wait... laugh.gif

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No it won't - not the real economy.

GDP has become more than anything else an electioneering stat.

GDP is now a measure of ****ed the country is...not how well it's doing.

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Another £113bn of Osborne's covert borrowing to be included in the national debt from September. :D

But it's OK, the primary deficit can still be massaged downwards from £114bn/yr (7.3% of GDP) to £111bn/yr (7.2% of GDP) under the new accounting rules. :rolleyes:

Spend. Spend. Spend.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/02/28/britain-borrowing-idUSL6N0LX25J20140228

thanks. The new measure still excludes banking interventions which were deemed to be temporary but seem to be moving from short to mid term interventions.

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With all the election comments...these people really would rather be in charge of a total basket case than a successful country where unpopular action was taken.

Cos at least they're still 'in charge'

Well as much as a puppet can be...

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Ed Balls was on the television last night explaining again that the recovery was not fast enough, as though we couldn't be doing more in terms of loading up on debt and creating a house price boom. In terms of Europe, after starting at the bottom of the growth league table in 2011 and 2012 we are now winning every match and even Germany resemble Fulham at the foot of the table. Ok it is all fantasy stuff like loaning in all the best players and bankrupting yourself for next season. ZIRP, HTB2 and QE have all proved excellent short term signings.

However, if this keeps up and we can keep winning 7-0 every week until 2015 and the rest of Europe keep playing like spastics then surely we will be top of the European league table for the 2010-2015 period. I would be interested to know what the current state of play is for the last four years*.

Just wonder what Ed Balls can say then. Not that I agree with growth for growth's sake, we are riding for another bust a few years down the line.

* cannot find any league tables for this period, but surely that is the crux of the political debate since the politicians base success on GDP. And the European community is the only fair comparison.

Edited by crashmonitor

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The Tories will just throw everything at the economy over the winter to keep the economy appear to be recovering. They have an election to win you know.

Of course, Brown did exactly the same in the run up to the last election to be able to say the economy is back to growth (growth in debt and prestidigitation). Meet the new boss same as the old.

The crowing we are likely to hear will be all the more galling from the current lot, given the opportunity they had to do a reset. Have they made things worse? Are people being lulled into a false sense of security? There is no difference between any of them - the game is power, self-aggrandisement and opportunism.

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The Tories will just throw everything at the economy over the winter to keep the economy appear to be recovering. They have an election to win you know.

Of course, Brown did exactly the same in the run up to the last election to be able to say the economy is back to growth (growth in debt and prestidigitation). Meet the new boss same as the old.

The crowing we are likely to hear will be all the more galling from the current lot, given the opportunity they had to do a reset. Have they made things worse? Are people being lulled into a false sense of security? There is no difference between any of them - the game is power, self-aggrandisement and opportunism.

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Of course, Brown did exactly the same in the run up to the last election to be able to say the economy is back to growth (growth in debt and prestidigitation). Meet the new boss same as the old.

The crowing we are likely to hear will be all the more galling from the current lot, given the opportunity they had to do a reset. Have they made things worse? Are people being lulled into a false sense of security? There is no difference between any of them - the game is power, self-aggrandisement and opportunism.

The same old, same old.

goods_2851842a.jpg

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I just saw "an economist" on Sky blame our poor exports on the weak Eurozone, and our high imports on our improving economy.

Its a miracle!!

Sat there with a straight face he did.

Champion.

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I picked up on this economic forecast from the end of last year for the UK. He was going for 4% GDP and a sustained housing boom. He does have history on his side, we are always too optimistic going into a recession (this forum excepted) and too pessimistic as we climb out of the trough (this forum not excepted).

If you look at the two recessions of the early eighties and early nineties the similarity with the shape of the trough are almost uncanny. The eighties one is half the size of the present and the nineties one a quarter. However, in shape they are identical and each time we exit (which is imminent) the recovery is turbo charged.

The fact remains that those who study history and the shape of cycles haven't been far wrong with their forecast up to now including our friend Walayat.

http://www.oxford-royale.co.uk/articles/economic-predictions-2014.html

Trying to predict gold may be his undoing, its moves are often contrarian to the facts, so as commodity prices have crashed gold has gone the other way.

Edited by crashmonitor

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