Jump to content
House Price Crash Forum
Frank Hovis

Housing Starts Highest For Six Years

Recommended Posts

I've posted here before about the shortage of building materials that's happened over the last six months, and here are the figures coming through. It's still not enough but it all helps to increase supply. The two big builders that I know about are all systems go for further expansion and councils (in the SW anyway) are actively freeing up land to make developments happen and relieve the housing shortages in their towns and cities.

Add in yesterday's acknowledgement by the BoE that the US rates will start rising in a year meaning UK ones will too (however much they may pretend it's actually their choice) and rather than knowing that a HPC is inevitable "at some time" we can start to pin it down: 2015, after the election is when the first stones of the avalanche start rolling. You'll see it by the desperate "buy now before it goes back up again" propaganda from the VIs as they pretend house price falls have a V shape, when we all know there is a lengthy trough at the bottom.

A rise in house building in England tailed off in the last quarter of 2013, as both starts and completions fell 1 per cent.

However, annual housing starts hit 122,590 for the year as a whole, a 23 per cent rise on 2012, and the highest annual figure for six years. This is driven by the government’s help to buy equity loan scheme

The Office for National Statistics housing figures, released today, showed 32,320 starts in the quarter to last December, down from 32,520 in the quarter to September. This followed rises of 6 per cent and 8 per cent for the previous two quarters respectively.

Eric Pickles, communities secretary, said: ‘This government is fixing the broken housing market we inherited in 2010. Last year we built the most homes since 2007, and even the appalling weather conditions this winter have not stopped our hardy builders from getting the job done.

‘But there’s still more to do, and improving the housing market will remain a vital part of our long-term economic plan.’

http://www.insidehousing.co.uk/development/house-building-rise-tails-off-in-last-quarter-of-2013/7002242.article

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen no end of building sites re-open round here, the trouble is, the prices are double what they should be.

How is going to buy these shoe box homes with tiny gardens for 10 times what they earn ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen no end of building sites re-open round here, the trouble is, the prices are double what they should be.

How is going to buy these shoe box homes with tiny gardens for 10 times what they earn ?

Well nobody on here is going to buy them now obviously, we're not stupid.

But we need some people to do so to keep the cashflow going for the builders so that they can do more building to increase the supply. If that is with bank of mum and dad, help to buy and liar loans than so be it. It keeps the supply of new builds going and come the crash (starts second half of 2015 IMO) the higher the supply the bigger the fall.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I've seen no end of building sites re-open round here, the trouble is, the prices are double what they should be.

How is going to buy these shoe box homes with tiny gardens for 10 times what they earn ?

This x100.

In Coventry its all old factory sites where people used to have jobs, now they are slavebox estates with tiny gardens, narrow roads and no parking to speak of.

All for a huge premium over the existing stock.

New houses in my area.

Anecdotally, I know quite a few people who have had a nose around these houses and they cannot believe how poor they are quality wise.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well nobody on here is going to buy them now obviously, we're not stupid.

But we need some people to do so to keep the cashflow going for the builders so that they can do more building to increase the supply. If that is with bank of mum and dad, help to buy and liar loans than so be it. It keeps the supply of new builds going and come the crash (starts second half of 2015 IMO) the higher the supply the bigger the fall.

Frank,

Your tax money is going straight to their bottom line and they'll shut up shop as soon as things tank again. Building may be part of the answer but private developments by the current big developers probably aren't.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frank,

Your tax money is going straight to their bottom line and they'll shut up shop as soon as things tank again. Building may be part of the answer but private developments by the current big developers probably aren't.

These big sites have typically a three year timescale, funded by selling as they go. If they can't sell then they'll stop.

Why do you think "private developments by the current big developers probably aren't"? That's where the vast majority of the building is coming from, social housing is expanding but is a fraction of that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And the above is the reason we need "help-to-rent", so that the boomers can pile in to new builds to let - this would provide some better quality rented houses and incease the supply of housing stock.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Well nobody on here is going to buy them now obviously, we're not stupid.

BTL'ers are buying them.

In fact, for once I am glad they are buying them. I wouldn't want to own the cr4p they deem fit for us plebs.

Here is a S. Devon Taylor Wimpey NewBuild with a truly lovely garden (it was advertised for sale with a big HTB flag) now on the rental market as "brand new 3 bed house to rent" £179 pw

I actually posted a link to this house before, and 'The knimbles who say no' dug a bit deeper.

Edited by LiveinHope

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Frank,

Your tax money is going straight to their bottom line and they'll shut up shop as soon as things tank again. Building may be part of the answer but private developments by the current big developers probably aren't.

+1 It's around half the supply that's needed. If private developers build excess supply they'll kill their golden goose and stop building.

The only sector that can remedy a supply (and hence price) problem is the public sector.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

+1 It's around half the supply that's needed. If private developers build excess supply they'll kill their golden goose and stop building.

The only sector that can remedy a supply (and hence price) problem is the public sector.

How do you get the large developers to build large volume publoc sector developments at low margins?

Esp when all your policies are driving low volume, high margin development.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

+1 It's around half the supply that's needed. If private developers build excess supply they'll kill their golden goose and stop building.

The only sector that can remedy a supply (and hence price) problem is the public sector.

And make obtaining a plot for self-build an option

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

And make obtaining a plot for self-build an option

I have been looking into this, but the cost of land is prohibitive at around £120k for a plot that can 'house' a 120sqm house with garden and garage.

We need self build plots for <£50k and the only way this is going to happen is if the planning system is changed to allow self builders to build outside of the development plan boundaries - the reason for that is all of the land inside the boundaries is banked, restricted and thus expensive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have been looking into this, but the cost of land is prohibitive at around £120k for a plot that can 'house' a 120sqm house with garden and garage.

We need self build plots for <£50k and the only way this is going to happen is if the planning system is changed to allow self builders to build outside of the development plan boundaries - the reason for that is all of the land inside the boundaries is banked, restricted and thus expensive.

After the price of housing, the next most depressing thing for me are the major builders and their land banks and the cr4p they build upon them.

'They' just don't want us 'individuals' to have homes.

Edited by LiveinHope

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It seems the big builders are not the only ones land banking.

Semi detached with room for a bungalow

It is not even a particularly good area (its right next to a real sh1t hole)

Its more than three times the usual (inflated) price for the road.

It looks half finished.

AND they don't even have planning permission!

I know what you mean there...

I have been looking at small granny bungalows which seem to be coming up more and more often. They still want £200k for a tiny 2 bed bungalow on a good sized plot, by the time it's been demolished and rebuilt it would be cheaper to buy second hand decent house.

that is the problem with the land bubble caused by cheap finance and restrictive planning boundaries - it becomes uneconomical to build houses.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It's terrific news that more houses are being built. But depressing that even with this increase there are almost exactly twice as many households being formed each year as houses being built. And why was this country able to build 300,000 houses a year during the 1930's (with a global depression and a much smaller population), when it struggles to build over 100,000 houses in the 21st century?

The answer of course is restrictive planning regulations and the NIMBY pressure groups.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

  • The Prime Minister stated that there were three Brexit options available to the UK:   206 members have voted

    1. 1. Which of the Prime Minister's options would you choose?


      • Leave with the negotiated deal
      • Remain
      • Leave with no deal

    Please sign in or register to vote in this poll. View topic


×

Important Information

We have placed cookies on your device to help make this website better. You can adjust your cookie settings, otherwise we'll assume you're okay to continue.