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How Long Till It All Collapses ?


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HOLA441

A significant change of sentiment on this site - if it's real - is likely to be a sign that a turn is near.

When the last bear turns bull.....

Personally I've given up trying to predict when it will all kick off. Could be next week, could be 20 years. The government are certainly trying to enter the election with flattering economic figures so they'll pull out all the stops to keep the plates spinning up until then. It's anybody's guess whether they'll pull that off, the only thing we can know for sure is that even if they do pull it off they'll store up all sorts of problems for the future (as is now the standard political MO for all parties).

Crucified by the '5 year term' promise. They could have gone for a May election this year - after a few tax cuts in the budget, or October this year.. but instead they have to keep things on the up for the next 15 months with no visible means of support.

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HOLA442

So you rode the housing bubble on the way up then sold to rent and now you want it too collapse so you can really realise the profit from that decision?

No, I bought houses to live in, then bought into the property madness and moved house in 2006, instantly regretted it, tried to sell, spend 12 unhappy months of my life stuck with a weight round my next, finally found a buyer, just about broke even, started looking for a new place to live, couldn't believe the insane asking prices....2 weeks later the northern rock collapsed.....prices plummeted....everything stopped selling, since then estate agents sit on the best places and wait for some mug from London to pay 2007 prices...have moved a couple of times for work, including a stint abroad ( no house to worry about ), renting has been easy and cheap....if I could have found a decent family house at 2004 price levels i'd have bought a couple of years ago but the quality of housing stock round here is poor and the prices a sick joke. from discussion with other people locally the local estate agents are not the best to deal with and I wont be sad to see several of them out of business.

Now the reality is the government have no answers to the crisis, the is no future other than the debt/housing ponzi.. The UK is in massive decline and the best bet I think is to get out while the getting is good.

Edited by TheCountOfNowhere
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HOLA443

Sorry it's not a promise it is law so unless there are some very exceptional circumstances there can't be an election before May 2015 nor one after, the date is set and can't be changed. Previously yes the incumbent would make some give-aways and then at the best time for them they would call an election. Not the case now.

I bet they thought this would benefit them if the coalition split.

The big problem is that we might well have a coalition government the next time. I would hope this time the two parties entering into government would have a more closely allied agenda, so maybe a tories/labour government would be idea....same idiotic policies, same banking supporters, same same.

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HOLA444
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HOLA445

My words 5 years ago "There's no way the government can prop up house prices, priceswill crash".

Since then, I shut up about predictions. This can go on forever in my view. Happy to be proven wrong.

They've been able to do it because the Fed has been QEing and leaving its rates on the floor so the BoE could follow suit.

That's now ending; and that's what's different this time.

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HOLA446
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HOLA447

My words 5 years ago "There's no way the government can prop up house prices, priceswill crash".

Since then, I shut up about predictions. This can go on forever in my view. Happy to be proven wrong.

Government isnt propping anything up..buyers are...and they seem to be mostly BTL according to some reports...and BTL REQUIRES people to rent...

So, if they are to continue in the same vein, renting IS the future with Landlords stuck with their mortgages praying that there is no glut of BTL Properties...because bankers tend to say to BTL mortgage holders "****** you, pay me"

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HOLA448

I'd prefer to take my real taxation, real income, real savings and real job and move somewhere that can offer a future to my real family.

Where do you plan to go to get this future for your family?? Geniune question as I think the world over is pretty messed up at the moment and I don't see it correcting itself any time soon. I'm not from the UK and looking to leave but until things are sorted we will stay put...what's that old saying, better the devil you know? That's not to say it won't crash, it will of course, but it's very hard to see when. To think in places like Crystal Palace in London 2 up-2 down houses are going for £300,000 + is madness.

We have bank accounts in 3 different currencies and we can't decide what to do with our savings. It all looks cr&p at the moment.

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HOLA449

I think sentiment is changing - people like their high house prices but they love their kids and grandkids more. Even Boris Johnson said last week he was worried his kids wouldn't be able to afford a home in London.

Perhaps Osborne has miscalculated - but then does he care anyway?

Boris knows.....what he is worried about is the the high prices will force many of the London workers to move elsewhere,......growing numbers of London businesses can't afford to pay workers London house and rent prices......any hard working person after all wants to see that all their hard work gives/earns them a certain quality of life, that is a life not forced to live in a HMO or a small square box, a life where their well or used to be well paid job will support a family life.......London no longer offers that to a growing section of London hard working young growing families. ;)

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HOLA4410

Where do you plan to go to get this future for your family?? Geniune question as I think the world over is pretty messed up at the moment and I don't see it correcting itself any time soon. I'm not from the UK and looking to leave but until things are sorted we will stay put...what's that old saying, better the devil you know? That's not to say it won't crash, it will of course, but it's very hard to see when. To think in places like Crystal Palace in London 2 up-2 down houses are going for £300,000 + is madness.

We have bank accounts in 3 different currencies and we can't decide what to do with our savings. It all looks cr&p at the moment.

Choices are few and far between. Canada ( once their bubble pops ) the US ( more real jobs ) China ( for the ex-pat experience ) or New Zealand/Oz ( cause it's as far from England as you can get ).

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HOLA4411

I've had a great experience renting. Lovely house, lovely village, fraction of the cost of buying. landlord has been great, letting agents are ok. No up-keep, no worries, it's been win win win win for us.

I've owner 4 or 5 houses and I can safely say renting has been a pleasure compared to that.

...

Yes, I have had some great rental experiences. I have also had some pretty crappy ones (even in the same place when the LL of a few years got super greedy - central London).

Looking out at my wider circle of family and friends, the patterns are not dissimilar. However getting a good rental at a good price is not guaranteed, especially in some smaller towns where stock is limited.

The law (or lack thereof) is dysfunctional from a tenant perspective leading to an overall dysfunctional market.

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HOLA4412

Government isnt propping anything up..buyers are...and they seem to be mostly BTL according to some reports...and BTL REQUIRES people to rent...

So, if they are to continue in the same vein, renting IS the future with Landlords stuck with their mortgages praying that there is no glut of BTL Properties...because bankers tend to say to BTL mortgage holders "****** you, pay me"

There is a reason companies pay a fortune to advertise...it works. What we have here is a government using our money to bail out banks, provide low interest money to lend and push their agenda in the media/online/in print etc.

The banks must be in one real mess for this kind of support.

I can't see their being anything but a 2nd collapse now...it happened in the railway mania and it's happening again, the big question is that day the banks close again....which are coming back ?

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HOLA4413

Yes, I have had some great rental experiences. I have also had some pretty crappy ones (even in the same place when the LL of a few years got super greedy - central London).

Looking out at my wider circle of family and friends, the patterns are not dissimilar. However getting a good rental at a good price is not guaranteed, especially in some smaller towns where stock is limited.

You can turn that argument on it;s head....

However getting a good rental house to buy at a good price is not guaranteed, especially in some smaller towns where stock is limited.

At least if it's a rental...you can move easier and at MUCH lower costs.

If you buy a house right now at top whack 2007++ prices...who's going to buy it off you in 3 years time when you HAVE to move...the answer...no one cause only the greatest of the greatest fools would by now.

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HOLA4414

I'm not sure the banks being in a state is the problem here. I think that link on the first page of this thread is more of a reason for government support now.

This is more of a concern than weak banks too as the alternative, namely having a collapse and wiping all the savings of the over 50s away, would also cost the government a fortune (as they would need to fund their retirement).

As such when the other option also costs a lot there is less need to stop this one.

Edited by terryturbojr
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HOLA4415

You can turn that argument on it;s head....

However getting a good rental house to buy at a good price is not guaranteed, especially in some smaller towns where stock is limited.

At least if it's a rental...you can move easier and at MUCH lower costs.

If you buy a house right now at top whack 2007++ prices...who's going to buy it off you in 3 years time when you HAVE to move...the answer...no one cause only the greatest of the greatest fools would by now.

That is why we rent.

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HOLA4416

I'm not sure the banks being in a state is the problem here. I think that link on the first page of this thread is more of a reason for government support now.

This is more of a concern than weak banks too as the alternative, namely having a collapse and wiping all the savings of the over 50s away, would also cost the government a fortune (as they would need to fund their retirement).

As such when the other option also costs a lot there is less need to stop this one.

The reason for high house prices is:

> The lack of savings, by any one.

> The over 50's who 'dream' of downsizing are a large voting block.

> MP's hold lots of property.

> Thousands of estate agents.

> Thousands of bankers.

> Millions who bought property in the last 10 years.

> Millions who have been brainwashed by the propaganda from the above VI's.

> The Church, Crown and other rentiers.

> House of Lords.

There will be a second crash which changes the outlook of many in the above groups. The above post about rail mania just about sums up the whole situation.

The people involved in and running the system (all of us) have no will or need to change it, we are in the minority. It's quite clear that the system is harming the economy and will ultimately fail. The exact timing of it cannot be predicted, there was a chance of changing the system back in 2008/9, but there are so many VI's involved that that change did not come about. Ultimately it's will have to become a 1930's style scenario with people starving in the streets and millinos homeless before the system is changed for the good.

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HOLA4417

I've had a great experience renting. Lovely house, lovely village, fraction of the cost of buying. landlord has been great, letting agents are ok. No up-keep, no worries, it's been win win win win for us.

I've owner 4 or 5 houses and I can safely say renting has been a pleasure compared to that.

Sure. The main problem (outside London where renting is often a nightmare) is that a lease ends and the owner can quite easily say Bye in 2 or 3 months. That is a bind, to put it mildly. Great when a new lease is signed. Champagne all round.

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HOLA4418

This is a significant problem IMO.

Half%20London%20Luxury%20Properties_0.jpg

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-02-16/foreigners-bought-half-all-london-homes-selling-over-%C2%A31-million

Is there anymore on this matter? No CGT on foreign house investment is outrageous.

Tax on foreign property owners to burst London's bubble

The Chancellor is considering imposing a new tax on wealthy foreigners who own property in Britain, instead of introducing a tax on all mansions.

It is understood that Mr Osborne could be preparing to announce a capital gains tax on the sale of second homes in the UK that are owned by overseas investors as early as the Autumn Statement in December.

The policy would address concerns that there is a price bubble in the housing market around London and the South East, which has been created by foreign buyers from countries such as Russia and Greece.

I say we have until the end September next year before this all blows up. Martin Armstrong has been on the money with amazing accuracy. His ECM is one to watch.

ecm-wave-2011-2020.jpg

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HOLA4419

The young people working in London can no longer afford to live with their families in London....only the rich who more often than not live elsewhere and can afford to buy in London for investment purposes buy in London......money is the enticement not from where it comes from or what is sold to attract it. ;)

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HOLA4420
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HOLA4421

126 people reading this thread a second ago. Something is definately up, I have not seen the big numbers on threads here really since 2008?

Yes, I noticed that. It seems we are either inundated by young people ( FTBers ) trying to make sense of the market or E.A. terrified for their jobs ( or a combination ) both indicate to me the mega bubble has peaked and people are running scared.

Just taking London in isolation....that can't go much past the 2007 peak that collapsed the economy, not in any serious volumes. london collapse has been on the cards for months...and when it goes sentiment will go with it...we might then see the 20 year Japanese bear market.

All we wanted was a decent house for a decent price, what we get is financial Armageddon and idiots lording it over us like they are financial geniuses who can making something out of nothing.

We are all dooooooomed. laugh.gif

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HOLA4422
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HOLA4423

The merest hint of a rate rise will start the bottoms twitching, as no one wishes to be left clasping a turd. Osborne and Carney are hoping any increase will be post Election, but they are passengers on S.S Titanic, and only witnessing events, not controlling them.

Why though would it be necessary for them to touch the turd...they can always flush it down the loo, never to be seen again, why hold it?..... ;)

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HOLA4424

The merest hint of a rate rise will start the bottoms twitching, as no one wishes to be left clasping a turd. Osborne and Carney are hoping any increase will be post Election, but they are passengers on S.S Titanic, and only witnessing events, not controlling them.

I've said before, i think they have lucked into this "recovery" and are playing it for all they can.

However, with the HTB2 scheme forcing up the asking prices of the cr*ppiest of places by £20K in 3 months it will have stopped even the most enthusiastic of FTBs and the BTLers wont make any profit at those prices.

The plates are spinning slowly now.....

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HOLA4425

I just can't see it. I sat out the whole property debacle for the last 9 years but am buying a place in Suffolk now. it is not ridiculously expensive and to be honest I just cannot face renting any longer.

I can see you have written over 10,000 posts - perhaps you are just not seeing things how they are, like many on this forum.

a property is only worth what someone will pay.

This is still true today, as it was when you posted it in 2005. Yet it's a market, with different views and opinions. Time is coming non-owners beginning to feel more sorry for themselves, rather than hasty buyers who've been massively outbidding them for years.

My view is buyers are going to fall away. Fewer willing to pay the ever higher prices that have been set in recent years during reflation.

Rents based on incomes and ability to pay. I might believe differently if the authorities truly get anywhere with dreams of wage-inflation.

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