winkie Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 This is still true today, as it was when you posted it in 2005. Yet it's a market, with different views and opinions. Time is coming non-owners beginning to feel more sorry for themselves, rather than hasty buyers who've been massively outbidding them for years. My view is buyers are going to fall away. Fewer willing to pay the ever higher prices that have been set in recent years during reflation. Rents based on incomes and ability to pay. I might believe differently if the authorities truly get anywhere with dreams of wage-inflation. Wages can't inflate in today's circumstances....due to so many insecure jobs, lack of regular and uncertain future incomes......debt inc mortgage debt requires long-term stability and security....we do not at the moment have that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I've said before, i think they have lucked into this "recovery" and are playing it for all they can. However, with the HTB2 scheme forcing up the asking prices of the cr*ppiest of places by £20K in 3 months it will have stopped even the most enthusiastic of FTBs and the BTLers wont make any profit at those prices. The plates are spinning slowly now..... The only thing holding up the Titanic is the iceberg! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Killer Bunny Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 I say we have until the end September next year before this all blows up. Martin Armstrong has been on the money with amazing accuracy. His ECM is one to watch. Er...US$ to soar. Gold to collapse Hmmm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 Wages can't inflate in today's circumstances....due to so many insecure jobs, lack of regular and uncertain future incomes......debt inc mortgage debt requires long-term stability and security....we do not at the moment have that. Wages can't rise because they've already been inflated by fifteen odd years of unsustainable debt-driven demand. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The only thing holding up the Titanic is the iceberg! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 You know collapse is imminent when Billy Bragg is dragged out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 You know collapse is imminent when Billy Bragg is dragged out. Neil Kinnock certainly did. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liquid Goldfish Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 That fcuker Osborne (with his pet, Carney) has done something really, really bad here. As far as I can see it has to mean government support for house prices for a generation - MIRAS, enhanced SMI, abolishing stamp duty, FTB grants and things we never even dreamed of will have to be brought in to stop the crash when IRs finally rise. I think he's a true psycho. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 That fcuker Osborne (with his pet, Carney) has done something really, really bad here. As far as I can see it has to mean government support for house prices for a generation - MIRAS, enhanced SMI, abolishing stamp duty, FTB grants and things we never even dreamed of will have to be brought in to stop the crash when IRs finally rise. I think he's a true psycho. it sometimes makes me wonder if it's deliberate...either they want total collapse or they want the banks to continue getting free money. Basically we are all working to support the banks and the public sector now. The free market tories have turned out to be fixed market toe-rags. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Liquid Goldfish Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 it sometimes makes me wonder if it's deliberate...either they want total collapse or they want the banks to continue getting free money. Although he clearly likes hanging out with the rich and powerful I think Osborne's driven mainly by winning to prove to himself how clever he is - I think it means more to him even than being in power. I think he's quite different to Gordon Brown who I think was driven mad by 20+ years of compromises but who did actually think he was in power to do good (however deluded). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zugzwang Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 it sometimes makes me wonder if it's deliberate...either they want total collapse or they want the banks to continue getting free money. Basically we are all working to support the banks and the public sector now. The free market tories have turned out to be fixed market toe-rags. State Capitalism. General equilibrium theory with Krugmanite rather than Keynesian modifiers. The central bankers were all educated at the same universities, they're all true believers. Corresponds very well with Deng-era Chinese Communism. See Steve Keen, Nassim Taleb and Michael Hudson for comprehensive demolition/refutation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neon tetra Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 (edited) Looks to me like the return to normal/rush to sell at insane prices has started. There will be winners and losers for sure but one thing I think is clear, there is going to be an almighty collapse in the UK this year. I predict we wont get to past Sept before the housing market has died a death in the UK. I'm currently trying to sort out a job abroad, I for one have no desire to stay here now. I've done exactly that, and got myself a job abroad. Now debating what to do with my wad of savings. The 'sensible' thing to do if we were not in a bubble would be to do a BTL for the 2-3 years I am out of the country. This government has kept things propped up with hot air and promises for far too long - it surely has to crash again soon? I don't want to risk a 20% fall. But that can't be allowed to happen...?!?! Grrr. I don't have long to decide. Edit: five months until I leave these insane shores. Edited February 17, 2014 by neon tetra Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wonderpup Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 The free market tories have turned out to be fixed market toe-rags. It's ironic that only a Tory government could have gotten away with directly subsidising mortgages for middle class house buyers- any labor leader who suggested such a thing would have been lynched. But it does tend to flush 20 years of 'free market' rhetoric from the right down the toilet- quite appropriate given where such rhetoric has led us- up to our necks in sh*t. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THE BALD MAN Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It's ironic that only a Tory government could have gotten away with directly subsidising mortgages for middle class house buyers- any labor leader who suggested such a thing would have been lynched. But it does tend to flush 20 years of 'free market' rhetoric from the right down the toilet- quite appropriate given where such rhetoric has led us- up to our necks in sh*t. There are few free markets most are manipulated... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 So much media narrative against this now. Tories are in that middle-ground now - half way between 'fixing' the economy and breaking it. This won't hold until election. I expect we'll see something in budget to cool London: - bringing forward overseas CGT - some small/delayed BTL tax change to indicate that's next - removal of HTB2 for properties in M25 There are those other lending constraints hitting in April too I think - extra checks etc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 So much media narrative against this now. Tories are in that middle-ground now - half way between 'fixing' the economy and breaking it. This won't hold until election. I expect we'll see something in budget to cool London: - bringing forward overseas CGT - some small/delayed BTL tax change to indicate that's next - removal of HTB2 for properties in M25 There are those other lending constraints hitting in April too I think - extra checks etc. Comedy gold in that post Either way, we can agree there will be MORE TINKERING. We don't need tinkering, we need people with vision and a selfless self determination to sort this mess out. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dinker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It doesn`t matter what people on here think, there is an insatiable lust for London property from immigrant families and foreigners. They will pay anything for real-estate in the Capital of the World. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 (edited) It doesn`t matter what people on here think, there is an insatiable lust for London property from immigrant families and foreigners. They will pay anything for real-estate in the Capital of the World. Errrrrrr...one question....where was that insatiable lust for London property in 2008 when there was no insane lending, low interest rates or government props ? I think you have mistake lust for property to government ramping of house prices using freshly printed money causing rampant inflation, devaluing peoples incomes/savings/pensions and quite possibly plunging the whole country into the worst depression imaginable. Smoke and mirrors from a lying government and a corrupt/bankrupt banking system does not make for a sustainable housing market. Edited February 17, 2014 by TheCountOfNowhere Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winkie Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It doesn`t matter what people on here think, there is an insatiable lust for London property from immigrant families and foreigners. They will pay anything for real-estate in the Capital of the World. The streets of London are paved in gold.......bring it on, let them keep thinking that....tomorrow we will all be millionaires....rich beyond our wildest dreams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sour Mash Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 it sometimes makes me wonder if it's deliberate...either they want total collapse or they want the banks to continue getting free money. Basically we are all working to support the banks and the public sector now. The free market tories have turned out to be fixed market toe-rags. Of course it's deliberate - Loot, loot, loot and then loot some more whilst the going is good. This sucker is going down and those in the know want to squeeze every last drop of blood out of it. And the Tories turning out to be no better than Labour when it comes to stealing wealth off the electorate to give to the bankers and insiders? Quelle Surprise! It's what politicians do. Anyone who really thinks that the political establishment act in the interests of the electorate are extremely gullible or deluded. Their job is as middle men, PR agents. Give the public the sense that they are participating in a representative democracy and it gives legitimacy to any amount of dodgy decisions taken in the interests of the well connected. So much easier to enrich yourself when your money supply happily hands over a chunk of their earned wealth without needing to be put under the barrel of a gun. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
“Nasty Piece of work” Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 George dabbed the accelerator too early, instead of him and Carney being carried shoulder high, they will crash and burn. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheCountOfNowhere Posted February 17, 2014 Author Share Posted February 17, 2014 George dabbed the accelerator too early, instead of him and Carney being carried shoulder high, they will crash and burn. +1 It's June 2007 all over again and this time their is no magic bullet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slacker Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 It doesn`t matter what people on here think, there is an insatiable lust for London property from immigrant families and foreigners. They will pay anything for real-estate in the Capital of the World. That lust stops dead at the slightest whiff the asset won't appreciate any more. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
warpig Posted February 17, 2014 Share Posted February 17, 2014 What's gold got to do with this thread? We're talking about houses, perhaps you should post in the appropriate forum. Er...US$ to soar. Gold to collapse Hmmm... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Venger Posted February 18, 2014 Share Posted February 18, 2014 I've done exactly that, and got myself a job abroad. Now debating what to do with my wad of savings. The 'sensible' thing to do if we were not in a bubble would be to do a BTL for the 2-3 years I am out of the country. This government has kept things propped up with hot air and promises for far too long - it surely has to crash again soon? I don't want to risk a 20% fall. But that can't be allowed to happen...?!?! Grrr. I don't have long to decide. Edit: five months until I leave these insane shores. Why would that be sensible, even if it were not a bubble, and prices affordable (without HTB, QE, base rates years at 0.5%, FLS) ? So you had a home for when you got back? I don't think I could stand any one in my home (if I had one), renting it, awaiting the call(s) for trouble needing sorting. Too many have been concerned about their paper/digital savings, and therefore I suspect it's helped drive up asset prices. I've taken my position long ago, for the worst so far, and possibly terminally, but would be good if people with some savings/money are the only ones left standing. Why are existing landlords not concerned about 20%+ falls? Or rental yields set to slide. Be afraid landlords and sell up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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